Mitch Trubisky's offense is in serious trouble, Redskins defense could use the break

Breaking down Mitch Trubisky and Chicago's offensive woes.

Week 2 didn't quite provide the result Redskins would have hoped for, though that's likely not a surprise. Two games down and Washington is the not-so-proud owner of an 0-2 record. Again, there were some positive signs on offense, but ultimately big plays turned the tide of the game, and the Cowboys never relinquished. If you haven't already, you should check out Dan Morse's recap of week 2 for more details on the game and the NFC East as a whole.

Looking on the bright side, this week the Redskins hit prime time with a Monday night matchup versus the Chicago Bears. Chicago found themselves staring down the barrel of an 0-2 record when Joe Flacco connected with Emmanuel Sanders to take the lead with 30 seconds remaining in the fourth. However, Trubisky was able to rally the offense, and benefiting from a questionable roughing-the-passer penalty, drove into field goal range and let Eddie Pineiro do the rest.

Even with the victory, Bears fans have reason to be concerned. Trubisky has struggled mightily through the 2019 campaign. 

The graph shows the EPA generated by a team's offense and defense, with the axes oriented such that up and to the right is good, while down and to the left is bad (though you probably could have deduced this simply by noticing Miami's logo). Unsurprisingly, the Bears defense has continued to do well, as they currently sit at 7th overall in EPA per play. The offense, on the other hand, falls in the bottom six teams. So what exactly is going on?

Well, if we split the offensive EPA by play call, we get a better look.

While the Bears are middle of the pack in generated rushing value, they're a bottom tier team in passing production. Looking back at last season, we can begin to paint a picture for why Trubisky may be struggling. In 2018, Trubisky relied heavily on his mobility in generating positive plays.

Only Josh Allen had a higher proportion of his positive EPA plays come via rushing. But through two weeks of the 2019 season, things haven't been so jolly for Mitch.

Overall, Trubisky's successes have primarily come through the air, and generally his rush attempts have hurt Chicago's scoring chances more than they've helped. This wouldn't automatically spell disaster if he was finding more value through the passing game to offset these losses, but that doesn't appear to be the case either. This is evident by observing his completion percentage by depth of target.

In 2018, Trubisky was right around league average overall, but generally he was at his best on short-to-intermediate level passes, and slightly below average on deep balls (that last curve up is the result of a small sample). This year, however, Trubisky has been at his worst when targeting the intermediate level. These struggles may have also generated a more conservation play style, as his average depth of target has dropped from 8.59 in 2018 to 6.877 through the first two games.

Despite Trubisky's overall struggles, he's going up against a Redskins defense that can be beaten. We saw Dak Prescott punish Washington using his legs, so it's possible that Trubisky may find more opportunities to use his athleticism. In addition, the Redskins defense has shown a vulnerability to passes downfield, as Desean Jackson roasted them twice in week 1, and Devin Smith broke free in week 2. Overall, only three teams have allowed a higher EPA on passes at least 20 yards downfield.

Note: y-axis polarity is flipped from previous graphs (Up is bad defense, down is good)

In some ways, this game will pit the unstoppable force vs the immovable object. Will Trubisky's struggles continue, or will the Redskins defense be just what the doctor ordered? A strength turned weakness would be enough to cripple just about any player, but this could be the perfect game for Trubisky to bounce back. I'm not betting on it though.