Why the Commanders Will Beat the Seahawks, Why They Won't

The Washington Commanders are a team facing one of the toughest opening schedules possible, with a head coach on the hot seat and a franchise quarterback out and officially listed as week-to-week with a dislocated elbow that, thankfully, won't require surgery. In addition to missing Jayden Daniels, Washington will also be without Sam Cosmi, Frankie Luvu, Nick Cross, and Chig Okonkwo. While the home opener is not an impossible game, the margin for error is extremely small against the NFL's hottest team, the Seattle Seahawks, who are riding a 12-game winning streak that includes last year's Super Bowl.

Over the last few months, several have looked at Washington opening in Philly, then traveling to Dallas before their first home game against the Super Bowl champs, and how that could turn into 0-3; that doesn't make getting there any easier. Commanders HC Dan Quinn tried to put things in perspective Friday: "Don't like where we're sitting, but we're not staying here in this spot either."

Why the Commanders Will Win: Control the Trenches

The best chance for a Burgundy and Gold victory this Sunday starts and ends with finding a way to control the trenches on both sides of the ball. Last week in Dallas, the run game worked, and while Jayden Daniels did account for 69 yards, the team had 182 on the day, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Rachaad White rushing for 43 yards each. Most of those yards came before Washington fell behind by more than one score in the second half. This week they'll need to prove Daniels wasn't the one stirring the drink of their production.

Not having Cosmi really makes this tough. Andrew Wylie can fill in for him, and while he's not as good, as long as they don't have other injuries elsewhere on the line, Wylie is a capable replacement. Mariota's approach fits the plan. He admitted that in previous backup appearances he tried to put on the “Superman cape,” but now wants to simply play within the system.

That's exactly what Washington needs from him. They don't need Mariota trying to win this game by himself. Run the ball, stay ahead of the sticks, and don't give Seattle a chance to pin its ears back and turn this into a game where everyone knows Washington has to throw. If the Commanders can do that, keep the clock moving, and keep Seattle's offense standing on the sideline, this suddenly becomes a much more manageable game.

Seattle also has something Washington can attack on the other side. The Seahawks will be without both starting safeties, Julian Love and Ty Okada, meaning AJ Finley and Rodney Thomas II are expected to step into those spots. Nobody should confuse that with Seattle suddenly having a bad secondary, but it's an opening Washington has to take advantage of. Mariota called himself a "point guard" this week, and that's probably the right approach. Get the ball to Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, Antonio Williams, and the rest of the playmakers, then let them do something with it.

Mariota also isn't coming into this thing completely cold. He went 11-of-16 for 111 yards and a touchdown after Daniels went down in Dallas. Washington doesn't need 350 yards from him Sunday. If the offensive line can hold up and the run game does its part, he should have chances against a Seattle secondary missing two starters.

Why the Commanders Won't Win: The Defense Hasn't Earned Our Trust

Here's where it gets hard to talk yourself into Washington. The defense has allowed seven passing touchdowns in two games while not allowing one on the ground. Dak Prescott completed 26 of 31 passes for 279 yards and four touchdowns last week, and now the Commanders have to try to fix that without Luvu or Cross.

Seattle gets Sam Darnold back, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is coming off a game where he caught three touchdowns and finished with 155 yards. That's not exactly what you want to see walking through the door when your secondary is already struggling. Quinn has spent the week hammering communication, saying, "You can't get it right most of the time. You got to get it right all the time." That's true, but at some point Washington has to stop talking about fixing the explosive plays and actually fix them.

The other problem is what happens if Seattle gets ahead early. Washington's best path to winning disappears pretty quickly if Mariota has to spend the second half chasing points. The run game becomes less of a factor, Seattle can start coming after him, and an offensive line already missing Cosmi gets put in a situation you don't want. Commanders OC David Blough summed up the injury situation pretty well this week: "We're not reflecting on what we don't have right now. There's no time for that. Nobody cares." Seattle certainly won't.

Pro Football Plus: caught up with safety Jeremy Reaves in key things to fixing the back end of defense. Finding a way out of the corner to win. pic.twitter.com/9YMnylgEUx
— Donna Hopkins (@DonnaHopkins_) September 26, 2026

Week 3 Prediction

This is a game that I feel could be a huge trap game for Seattle, but otherwise gives me very little to be confident about Washington. There is a path to victory, but it includes establishing a running game without Daniels, attacking Seattle's backup safeties, pressuring Sam Darnold all day, getting some takeaways, and keeping Mariota in his comfort zone. The problem, of course, is Washington hasn't done enough in the first two weeks of the season to earn the trust that it will all happen together against an elite opponent.

My take: The door is open for Washington to make this competitive and steal one if they can establish their ground game and find a way to stop JSN; I've just not seen enough to openly predict it.

Seahawks 27, Commanders 20

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