7 areas where Cowboys could regress statistically in 2024

The Dallas Cowboys might see their stats declines in these seven areas in 2024.

Randy Gurzi | Jul 15, 2024

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

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The Dallas Cowboys have been consistently winning 12 games per season for the past three years. But with several changes to the roster, most of which might not be for the better, they could take a step back in 2024.

They’re asking several rookies and former backups to rise to the occasion. Perhaps they’re proven right but they could just as easily see regression in these seven stats.

Rushing Yardage - Offense

Jun 5, 2024; Frisco, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott (15) goes through a drill during practice at the Ford Center at the Star Training Facility in Frisco, Texas. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports / Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

2023: 1,920 yards, 14th in NFL

It’s fair to say Tony Pollard didn’t live up to expectations in 2023. Even so, he was at least a threat whenever the ball was in his hands and he topped 1,000 yards the past two years.

Letting him test free agency was the right call and his contract with the Tennessee Titans might be too steep. Where Dallas messed up was by not replacing him with a true starting-caliber back.

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Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle each have respectable qualities but are better served as No. 2 backs. There will be moments when the ground game surprises us but on the whole, they might go from a middle of the pack rushing offense to one of the worst in the league.

Rushing Yardage - Defense

October 8, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle Mazi Smith (58) after the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

2023: 1,910, 16th in NFL

Losing Pollard was bad but the Cowboys could see just as drastic of a drop on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Johnathan Hankins signed with the Seattle Seahawks, leaving the Cowboys without an experienced run-stuffing nose tackle.

They’ll be leaning on Mazi Smith who enters his second season in the league but he hasn’t done much to give confidence. Behind him is journeyman Carl Davis and two rookies — Justin Rogers and Denzel Daxon.

16th in the league might not seem great but it’s better than 22nd, which is where they were in 2022. This season might be closer to what we saw that year.

Total Sacks

Dallas Cowboys defensive end Sam Williams (54) in game action in the first quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

2023: 46, 13th in NFL

In addition to losing Johnathan Hankins, the Cowboys also saw two other key members of the defensive line walk in free agency. Dan Quinn left for the Washington Commanders and signed Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler, Jr.

Armstrong was second on the team with 7.5 sacks in 2023. Fowler had four but put up 10 in two seasons proving to be a weapon as a rotational edge rusher.

With them gone, Sam Williams and rookie Marshawn Kneeland will be asked to take their place. Micah Parsons will continue to be their star pass rusher and DeMarcus Lawrence will continue to be a Tank. But if they want to have similar sack numbers in 2024, they need their young players to step up and there’s no guarantee they will.

Defensive interceptions

Nov 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland (26) returns an interception for a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Washington Commanders at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

2023: 17, 9th in NFL

It might sound like blasphemy to say the interception total could decline for the Cowboys. They have DaRon Bland who has 14 picks in two years and Trevon Diggs is returning after tearing his ACL ahead of Week 3.

Perhaps they pick up where they left off but two factors can hurt their chances. One is the potential decline in pass rush after losing Armstrong and Fowler which means the ball won’t be forced out as quickly as it has been.

The second is the loss of Dan Quinn.

Before he took over as the defensive coordinator in 2021, interceptions weren’t the norm for the Cowboys secondary. They struggled in this regard for years and had just 10 in 2020. After Quinn joined, they recorded 26 in his first season, followed by 16, and finally 17.

Mike Zimmer is a good defensive coordinator and there will be some positive changes he brings. But Quinn’s loss will be felt and it could be in this area.

Total Yards - Defense

Jul 26, 2023; Oxnard, CA, USA; Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Dan Quinn watches over training camp drills at River Ridge Playing Fields in Oxnard, CA. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

2023: 5,095 yards, 5th in NFL

If the Cowboys generate fewer sacks and create less turnovers, it’s natural to think they could surrender more yards.

Quinn had them fifth in the NFL last year but his departure — and the defensive losses — won’t be the only reason for concern here. Throw in the offense potentially struggling to sustain drives due to a lackluster run game and the defense can suffer.

2014 is a perfect example. The Cowboys defense lacked star players but DeMarco Murray led the NFL in rushing yardage. That kept them fresh and helped them play at a higher level. A reverse effect could happen this year with a questionable running back stable.

Total Yards - Offense

Jun 5, 2024; Frisco, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) goes through a drill during practice at the Ford Center at the Star Training Facility in Frisco, Texas. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports / Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

2023: 6,317, 5th in NFL

The Cowboys are going to be putting a lot of pressure on Dak Prescott this season. He’s likely to rise to the occasion, which is why passing yardage isn’t picked as a potential regression point. But the issues with the ground game and two rookies starting on the offensive line might cause the offense as a whole to decline.

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Dallas was fifth in the NFL in yardage in 2023. Mike McCarthy did a solid job after taking over play-calling and Prescott flourished under him. They should still be in the top-10 thanks to Dak, CeeDee Lamb, and Jake Ferguson but nothing will be as easy this year.

Points Scored

Nov 30, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) catches a pass for a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the first half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

2023: 509, 1st in NFL

In addition to seeing their yardage slow down on offense, the Cowboys won’t be able to put up points the way they did in 2023.

Their receiving corps is thinner with the release of Michael Gallup, which was again the right call. The problem is they didn’t do much to replace him. The rookie offensive linemen will be another factor.

Dallas could be strong inside the five-yard line thanks to Ezekiel Elliott but might not get there as often as they did in 2023.

Published Jul 15, 2024|Modified Jul 15, 2024

RANDY GURZI

Arizona State grad