Cowboys 1st & 10: A Tanking Moment of Truth

Wanna see a ‘Tank?’ The Dallas Cowboys have to ‘Organically’ get it right, starting Sunday in NFL Week 15 vs. the Niners

Matthew Postins | Dec 20, 2020

For the past few weeks, I’ve updated where the Dallas Cowboys stand in terms of the 2021 NFL Draft. While the Cowboys, mathematically speaking, can still win the NFC East, why would you want them to do so at this point? Making the playoffs wouldn’t just cost the Cowboys a Top 5 pick. It would cause them to choose at least 10 selections lower than they would as we go into today’s action. So ...

1) 'Organic Tanking'

When you have needs at several different positions, like Dallas does, why position yourself in a way in which you can’t take advantage of selecting an immediate, impact starter who can help a team that is getting back quarterback Dak Prescott next season?

This is where ‘Organic Tanking’ comes in. If you follow our work at DallasBasketball.com, you know the Fish-nicknamed theory. You don’t necessarily ‘try’ to tank. You’re just bad enough to play and let the tank come to you. Thanks to a variety of factors, the ‘organic tank’ was working quite well for the Cowboys.

Even last week, after the Cowboys defeated the Bengals on the road, all that really did was solidify the Bengals at No. 3. By the end of Week 14, the Cowboys were back at No. 4 (head to Tankathon.com for complete updates after every game).

But now we get to our ‘Organic Tanking’ moment of truth. How bad do the ‘Organic Tanking’ Gods really want the Cowboys to get that No. 4 pick?

The Cowboys play the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Going into Sunday’s action the 49ers are at No. 12. After that the Cowboys play the Eagles (No. 8 going into today) and then end the season with the New York Giants (No. 10 going into today). All of these teams are under .500. But the Cowboys only have one fewer win than the 49ers and Giants, and the Eagles have the same amount of wins, but one tie. The 49ers and Giants are part of a logjam of teams with five wins. The Cowboys are part of a logjam of teams with just four wins.

Right now what is saving the Cowboys is the strength of schedule. When it comes to breaking ties in the NFL Draft, that’s the first tiebreaker. Entering Sunday’s games the Cowboys have a .488 SOS. None of the teams on the four-victory tier is under .500 when it comes to SOS. It gives the Cowboys an enormous advantage at season’s end, should they remain at the No. 4 spot.

But SOS won’t help you if you win, say, two of the next three games?

Let’s say the Cowboys do that (and it is possible). Then Dallas finishes the season 6-10. Now, it’s impossible to project all of the moving parts around the Cowboys when it comes to the rest of the league. But, going into today’s games, just two wins would, indeed, cost the Cowboys 10 places in the draft. They would be at No. 14, where Minnesota is right now, because of their SOS.

What if the Cowboys ran the table and won all three? Well, they would finish 7-9. And going into today, if the Cowboys had seven wins, they would be No. 17 overall.

Are those wins worth it to you? Don’t just think about the first round, either. Think about the entire draft, the Cowboys selection in the fourth spot in each of those round. That’s what it also means.

The joy in ‘Organic Tanking’ is that you have a team bad enough to just show up, play, and lose. But it also means that team could still show up and win, as it did last week against Cincinnati.

We will see in three weeks how important the ‘Organic Tanking’ Gods deem these final three games for the Cowboys. It could make a huge difference in April.

2) Check out the Cowboy Maven Top 60 All-Time Dallas Cowboys

We published our Top 60 Dallas Cowboys of all-time as part of our celebration of the Cowboys’ 60 seasons in Dallas. We presented the Top 60 in groups of five. We hope you enjoyed the series and if you have an opinion, take them to our Cowboy Maven community or hit me up on Twitter at @PostinsPostcard.

If you missed any of the stories in our Top 60, just click on them below.

➡️ Cowboys Top 60 Greatest Players: Nos. 56-60

➡️ Cowboys Top 60 Greatest Players: Nos. 51-55

➡️ Cowboys Top 60 Greatest Players: Nos. 46-50

➡️ Cowboys Top 60 Greatest Players: Nos. 41-45

➡️ Cowboys Top 60 Greatest Players: Nos. 36-40

➡️ Cowboys Top 60 Greatest Players: Nos. 31-35

➡️ Cowboys Top 60 Greatest Players: Nos. 26-30

➡️ Cowboys Top 60 Greatest Players: Nos. 21-25

➡️ Cowboys Top 60 Greatest Players: Nos. 16-20

➡️ Cowboys Top 60 Greatest Players: Nos. 11-15

➡️ Cowboys Top 60 Greatest Players: Nos. 6-10

➡️ Cowboys Top 60 Greatest Players: Nos. 1-5

3) Zeke As A Jet?!

Fish's analysis of the idea of trading Ezekiel Elliott to the Jets is fact-filled. And even the art by our man Rolando is spot-on.

Whoa. Could The #Cowboys Really Trade #EzekielElliott To the #Jets ? https://t.co/KXtRarvlsc by @Fishsports ht @BleacherReport pic.twitter.com/C63isWjU0y
— fishsports ✭ (@fishsports) December 20, 2020

But Zeke in that uniform ... unsightly.

4) It's All About TV

The Dallas Cowboys still matter, right?

➡️ Cowboys' Jerry Jones Predicts NFL Will Add 17th Game

➡️ Does TV 'Flex Mean Cowboys Are Insignificant?

Here's hoping when Dallas plays 17 games it doesn't finish 8-8-1 every year.

5) 'Five to Watch' In Cowboys Vs. Niners

The Dallas Cowboys' secondary might be sprinting back onto the field as reinforcements on Sunday at AT&T Stadium, and Ezekiel Elliott might come sprinting back, too.

But Zeke is listed as questionable for the noon kickoff, as is Xavier Woods. So all the help available from likely returnees Trevon Diggs, Anthony Brown, Chidobe Awuzie and Donovan Wilson is quite welcome.

"I would put all three of them in the same category: I'm optimistic they'll play on Sunday," coach Mike McCarthy said late in the week. "The work has been good so far, they participated in the mock game that we just had. So far everything looks good."

So now, the actual game ... and our "Five Players to Watch,'' which might just include some of the aforementioned.

In this episode of the "Locked On Cowboys'' podcast, hosts Marcus Mosher and Landon McCool take a deep-dive look at their "Five Players'' as they also preview the team's Week 15 game against the Niners.

Listen to the podcast today.

6) McCarthy's Bottom 10

Fish pulls no punches here. Incredible detail into all that's gone wrong.

➡️ McCarthy's 10 Biggest Cowboys Screw-Ups

A must-read for Cowboys fans.

7) Get ready for Sunday’s game with San Francisco

Need to prep for Sunday’s game with San Francisco? Check out our primer below.

➡️ Cowboys Comeback: 'I Never Gave Up' - Randy Gregory

➡️ Cowboys CB Anthony Brown With A Fresh Take On 'The Catch'

➡️ Injury Update: Will Cowboys RB Zeke Fall Short of 1,000 Yards?

➡️ Cowboys Blitzcast: Why's Special-Teams Coach Getting A Pass?

8) Updating Cowboys Draft Needs

Now that we are more than two-thirds of the way through the season, it’s time to update our 2021 Cowboys NFL Draft needs. Now, we can debate the ranking of these needs (and they’re being debated on Twitter). But looking ahead to next season, I find it hard to see any other major needs than the five I’ve included here. And needs are relative now as opposed to the draft in April, after the Cowboys have moved through free agency.

But for now, here are my Cowboys Draft Need Rankings.

I will update these at the end of the regular season.

Also, our Bri Amaranthus put together a roundup of what some NFL Mock Drafts have the Cowboys taking at No. 4, assuming the Cowboys stay there (yet another reason for the Cowboys do whatever they can to stay where they are).

9) Whitt's End: How Cowboys Jaylon & Jerry Are 'Trippin' - And Getting It Wrong

From our Richie Whitt:

Remember way back when everyone rooted for Jaylon Smith because of his warm-’n-fuzzy comeback story? Me neither. Because these days the linebacker – despite being praised for his community service as the Cowboys’ NFL Man of the Year nominee – is a favorite bullseye for all that’s wrong with this team.

Smith blows assignments. Misses tackles. Gives love taps to opposing runners after first-down runs. And, of course, never ever never misses an opportunity to hog the spotlight and do his silly “Swipe” celebration after a rare highlight play.

The damning consensus is that Smith cares about himself more than fans care about winning and losing. Ouch.

Those who know Jaylon pretty well (including our own Mike Fisher) swear by Smith. But ...

He did little to change this perception Thursday when asked if it bothered him that the Cowboys were flexed out of primetime this week. Said Smith, “If the owner ain’t trippin’ we good.”

No, Jaylon, we ain’t good. In no way, shape or form is 4-9 “good.”