Cowboys Keep Winning, But Did QB Dak Prescott Drop Out of MVP Race?

Oddsmakers have Dak Prescott well behind Tom Brady for NFL MVP, but even Prescott will tell you he has bigger prizes in mind

Dak Prescott is in a slump. Even Cowboys owner/general manager Jerry Jones has acknowledged as much. And slumps don’t make for NFL Most Valuable Players.

Prescott has thrown as many touchdowns (three) as interceptions (three) in the last three games and hasn’t thrown for more than 238 yards in any of those games. But, the Cowboys have won all three of those games, including their 21-6 win over the New York Giants on Sunday, and are within striking distance of the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Maybe Prescott’s new workouts will start to juice his numbers a bit so his bets with defensive end Demarcus Lawrence start going better for him. On Sunday, Prescott told reporters that he sees the Cowboys "peaking at the right time."

Prescott will be the first to tell you that reaching the playoffs and winning a Super Bowl are all that matter to him.

So the fact that his MVP candidacy is basically done is more for us to confirm. He's tied for fifth per Sportsbettingdime.com (+1400) with Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. But he's so far behind Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady (-175) that Prescott winning his first NFL MVP award isn't even worth contemplating.

But, at one point, Cowboys fans were heavily contemplating the possibility. Sportsbettingdime.com has tracked what it considered the Top 5 MVP candidates, and their odds, since the first betting lines were released after Super Bowl LV in February. 

Back then, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes had the best odds (+500). Prescott was well behind him (+1700). But at least Prescott was on the list. And this was a player coming off a gruesome leg injury in 2020.

What’s interesting is that those two quarterbacks started in opposite directions in September. Prescott got off to a scintillating start, while there were questions about where Mahomes’ play was going well into October.

That’s when Prescott’s odds started shooting up. On Oct. 5, after Prescott started the season with 10 touchdown passes, he was third among the five players tracked (+850), even slightly ahead of last year’s MVP, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers.

Two weeks later, on Oct. 19, Prescott’s odds reached its zenith (+420), tying him for first at that point with Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray. It’s easy to see why. At that point Dallas was 5-1, coming off its overtime win over New England and Prescott had thrown 16 touchdown passes against four interceptions, along with two 400-yard passing games.

That, of course, also lined up with Prescott’s calf injury. And his MVP hopes have taken a massive hit.

Since returning against Denver, the Cowboys are 4-3, which included a 1-3 start upon Prescott’s return. Prescott has thrown nine touchdowns and six interceptions post-injury and has thrown for more than 300 yards just one time.

That’s a slump, when you set it against what he did to start the season.

If Prescott is into individual achievement, he doesn't let on. If it bothers him that he put up sensational numbers during the Cowboys' 5-1 start only to see that calf injury slow him down, he doesn't let on. 

While his MVP candidacy has cooled, though, Prescott's chances of playoff success hasn't. In fact, those chances have gotten better, as the Cowboys' more recent drivers of success are its defense and a more balanced offense. That isn't to say the Cowboys don't need Prescott to make plays ... and cut down on turnovers. 

Besides, historically, winning the regular-season MVP doesn’t help much when it comes to holding a Lombardi Trophy.

In 55 Super-Bowl season, just 10 players have won the NFL’s regular-season MVP award AND the Super Bowl in the same season — Green Bay quarterback Bart Starr in 1966, Pittsburgh quarterback Terry Bradshaw in 1978, Washington kicker Mark Moseley in 1982, New York Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor in 1986, San Francisco quarterback Joe Montana in 1989, Dallas running back Emmitt Smith in 1993, San Francisco quarterback Steve Young in 1994, Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre in 1996, Denver running back Terrell Davis in 1998, and St. Louis quarterback Kurt Warner in 1999.

So, let the odds plummet, I say. There are biggest prizes for Prescott and the Cowboys to claim.

You can reach Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.