NFL simulation model gives Cowboys overwhelming chance to reach postseason

The Dallas Cowboys were given strong odds to reach the NFL Playoffs this season, despite a difficult stretch of opponents to start the year.

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The Dallas Cowboys will start the 2024 NFL season facing a gauntlet of playoff teams from a year ago. Dallas faces seven 2023 playoff teams over the season's first ten games.

Overall, the Cowboys are tied for the 12th-toughest schedule in the NFL this year.

Despite the team's challenges in the early part of the season, the Cowboys are still expected to reach the postseason.

The Athletic's Austin Mock ran his NFL Projection Model to forecast the postseason teams vying for the Lombardi Trophy. The model ran its simulation 100,000 times to produce the most accurate results.

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According to the projections, the Cowboys have an 80.5 percent chance of reaching the postseason, the third-best odds in the conference.

While the model gave Dallas only a 7.4 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl, they were among "The Big 5," a group of five teams that won the Super Bowl in over 50 percent of the simulations.

"The Big 5" also consisted of the San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Philadelphia Eagles.

Late in the season, three of Dallas' final five games are at home, and one of the two road games is against the Carolina Panthers. So, if the team can navigate the tough stretch at the beginning of the year, it could find itself firing on all cylinders as the playoffs approach.

Dallas will kick off its 2024 campaign on Sunday, September 8, on the road against the Cleveland Browns. Tom Brady will be making his broadcasting debut for the game on FOX.

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