Dallas Cowboys vs. Colts: Favored by Twice as Much as Eagles?

The Cowboys have the league’s second-best scoring defense (17 points) and the Colts are the third-worst offense (15.8 points). Maybe that's the oddsmakers' formula here.

FRISCO - For us, as a rule of thumb, double-digit point-spread odds almost always seem like too much in any game with a pointy ball. For evidence, just look backward one week, to the Dallas Cowboys being favored by almost 10 points over the visiting Giants, scoring 21 straight points in the second half to demonstrate dominance ... being ahead by two touchdowns with a few seconds to play. ... before an unsportsmanlike penalty on Micah Parsons moves the ball to the goal line, where New York scores to create a 28-20 loss ...

Oops, and there went the "almost 10 points.''

Now along come the Indianapolis Colts, a considerably worse team than the Giants to be sure, and projected as massive underdogs against the Cowboys Sunday night at AT&T Stadium.

The Cowboys have been installed as 12.5-point favorites.

Too much?

We get it. Indianapolis played on Monday (and lost), and are now back on prime-time TV in a short week. They fired their coach and plucked his interim replacement, Jeff Saturday, out of an ESPN studio. They benched their QB Matt Ryan and then un-benched him.

Indianapolis is one of eight NFL teams to average less than 100 yards rushing per game, odd because running back Jonathan Taylor is their only established weapon. The Colts have scored 20-plus points just once in their last six games.

They are 4-7-1.

Meanwhile, Dallas is 8-3, and 5-1 at home, and well-rested, having not played since Thanksgiving. Saturday thinks Dallas might be the best team in the NFL. And maybe the biggest fulcrum point here: The Cowboys have the league’s second-best scoring defense (17 points) and the Colts are the third-worst offense (15.8 points). 

Maybe that's the oddsmakers' formula here.

However ... the most points Indianapolis has gotten all year was 6.5 against Philadelphia. The Eagles won that game, barely, but did not cover. And obviously, "the Eagles by 6.5'' is almost doubled by "the Cowboys by 12.5'' this time around.

What to surmise from this? It obviously says something about what the wise guys think of Dallas vs. Indy. But we wonder ... does it also say something about Dallas vs. Philly?

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