Cowboys 3 Bold Predictions: Decline of Dak & Diggs?

Pro Football Focus revealed its three bold predictions for the Cowboys this season.

The inevitable wrath of bold predictions - both the good and bad kind - falls on the Dallas Cowboys every offseason and likely won't stop pouring in anytime soon. 

The boldest of predictions might project a Super Bowl-winning season for the often underachieving Cowboys or a failed five-win year that would be a near-impossible underachievement given the talent on the roster. There needs to be some sort of middle ground in all this.

Pro Football Focus gave this a shot Tuesday with the reveal of three bold predictions for the Cowboys this season. 

Prediction 1: Dak Prescott will post his worst PFF grade since 2018

PFF grades say little about what was a statistically-successful season for Prescott in 2018. He made his second Pro Bowl behind a 10-6 record, five game-winning drives, 3,885 passing yards, 28 total touchdowns, and eight interceptions.

However, this season's uncertainty surrounding the receiving corps and an offensive line with some shift in personnel makes this a year that Prescott could see some regression after nearly topping 4,500 passing yards last season. 

PFF's analysis:

Prescott has had a fascinating NFL career. After being drafted in the fourth round, it was immediately clear that the league just missed on him, as he was a far superior player than the draft process believed. From that point, he has proved capable of very high-end play, but he also appears to be one of the most affected quarterbacks by changes to his supporting cast. This season, he has to deal with the loss of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup likely missing the start of the year and an offensive line that has undergone some changes. In the past, when Prescott’s supporting cast wanes, so does his play. It wouldn’t take much of a decline for him to earn an overall PFF grade in the 70's rather than the 80's, which would be his worst year since 2018.

Prediction 2: Rookie WR Jalen Tolbert will record 900-plus yards

If the Cowboys can get anywhere close to the league-leading 407 offensive yards per game they averaged last season, Tolbert could easily reach the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie. 

Gallup has made it clear that a return in Week 1 is not in the works, giving Tolbert a chance to get a running start on what should be an All-Rookie type of year for the third-round pick given his projected role.

PFF's analysis:

One thing that might help Prescott out is that Tolbert has the talent to step in and contribute in a meaningful way. The third-round rookie out of South Alabama had a phenomenal college career, racking up almost 1,500 yards last season. He recorded 35 explosive plays in his final season and showed well at the Senior Bowl when the level of competition was elevated. He has a complete skill set that should allow him to win in multiple ways early on as the Cowboys need a secondary option in the passing game. Dallas has the offense that gives him the bandwidth to chase 1,000 yards over the season even with a healthy CeeDee Lamb and Gallup ahead of him.

Prediction 3: Trevon Diggs records fewer than half the interceptions but a better PFF grade than last year.

Diggs, of course, led the league with 11 interceptions last season. He was the first player to reach that mark in a single season since former Cowboys cornerback Everson Walls had 11 of his own in 1981.

Even a five-interception season could still be considered a successful campaign for the All-Pro defensive back. His reputation as a shut-down corner rather than a ball-hawking one would be reflected in his potentially higher PFF grade and lower interception total. 

PFF's analysis:

Diggs was one of the NFL's most polarizing players last season because he led the league in interceptions (11) and total yards given up in coverage (1,016). Diggs earned a 66.7 PFF coverage grade despite the interception figure due, in part, to how some of those interceptions arrived but also because of the bad play between them. This season, his turnover total will likely tumble and could easily be cut in half. Even if it does, he will likely be a better player overall and could see his PFF grade improve if he cuts down the miscues. Diggs gave up a massive 18.5 yards per reception last year, the highest figure in the league. Jalen Ramsey gave up 10.1 yards per catch, and A.J. Terrell finished at 6.9. Diggs won’t have the hype this year absent of the gaudy interception total, but he’ll be a better player.

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You can follow Zach Dimmitt on Twitter at @ZachDimmitt7

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