32 Teams in 32 Days: Dolphins Under Pressure to Show Progress in Playoffs

Miami has qualified for the postseason twice in two years under Mike McDaniel, but Tua Tagovailoa must show he’s capable of more than leading one-and-done exits.

The Dolphins were outclassed by the Chiefs in a 26–7 loss in the wild-card round last season. / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Dolphins’ aggressive trades in recent years haven’t led to much success. As a reminder, coach Mike McDaniel has been scheduling most of his team meetings 24 minutes past the hour as a symbol of the organization’s 24-year postseason win drought. 

After trading for Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb and Jalen Ramsey—and extending the contracts of the first two—all the Dolphins have to show for it is a pair of wild-card round losses, no AFC East titles and many tough decisions made because of the limited cap space created by those all-in moves. 

The Dolphins were forced to let defensive tackle Christian Wilkins join the Las Vegas Raiders in free agency and they rushed to re-sign Jaylen Waddle before the elite wide receivers increased the pay scale for the position (Hill might soon ask for a reworked deal). Waddle still has plenty to prove, but at least the team locked him up with somewhat of a discount (three years, $84.75 million). 

There won’t be a discount with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which could be why the two sides haven’t yet agreed on a contract extension. This could be a make-or-break season for many in Miami, including Tagovailoa and McDaniel as the coach heads into his third season with the Dolphins.  

Biggest gamble this offseason: Making Tagovailoa wait for his new deal

The Dolphins could still strike a deal with Tagovailoa this summer, which would likely mean a contract extension with an annual average of at least $50 million. That would be an even bigger gamble, though, considering Tagovailoa’s lack of wins against teams with winning records, let alone postseason victories. And then there’s the lengthy injury history, though he did play in every game last season to lead the league in passing yards. But it’s also a gamble to make their franchise quarterback wait and feel antsy heading into training camp. 

If Miami stops contract negotiations and puts them off until the offseason, the price tag would go up if Tagovailoa helps the team win its first postseason game in a generation. And perhaps the team-player relationship takes a hit because of the wait, and Tagovailoa decides to play on the franchise tag in 2025 to possibly become a free agent in ’26, similar to what Kirk Cousins did with Washington, or pushes for a trade out of South Beach. This is a delicate situation and the Dolphins have already made head-scratching decisions with the contracts of their star players, letting Wilkins walk in free agency and deciding to pay Waddle before Tagovailoa.   

Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 13 to 18

The Dolphins took advantage of a favorable early schedule last season, but they struggled when the competition level increased down the stretch. That could happen again with a brutal six-game run to conclude the 2024 regular season. The Dolphins travel in Week 13 to face the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football. They return home to host the New York Jets before going back on the road for three of their final four regular-season games: at Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns and Jets. Sandwiched between the final road trips is a home date against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16. This stretch will likely determine whether Miami makes the postseason for a third consecutive season.  

De’Von Achane averaged an absurd 7.8 yards per carry en route to 800 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in 11 games last season. / BILL INGRAM/THE PALM BEACH POST / USA

Breakout player to watch: RB De’Von Achane 

Achane quickly proved to be a dangerous playmaker, but the 2023 third-round pick had a quiet final three months of the season because of a knee injury. After missing the season opener due to a shoulder injury, Achane had three consecutive games of at least 100 rushing yards, including a 200-yard performance in the 70–20 victory over the Denver Broncos. But after returning from injured reserve, Achane only went over 100 rushing yards once the rest of the season. If he manages to stay healthy, he could have a dominant second season in the NFL. He recorded 800 rushing yards and 11 total touchdowns in 11 games played last season.

Best-case scenario: Dolphins win AFC East, become physical team

First, the Dolphins need edge rushers Chubb and Jaelan Phillips to make full recoveries from their respective knee injuries because they will have to play at a high level to assist the suspect interior defensive line that lost Wilkins to the Raiders. If the Dolphins have a dominant pass rush—they also drafted Chop Robinson in the first round—that could be a pivotal step toward becoming a physical team without having to sacrifice the all-gas-no-brakes approach on offense. 

Without a rugged defense, the Dolphins would need a slower approach offensively with physical running backs, but that’s not the personnel they have with Achane and Raheem Mostert. The 49ers often lean on their defense to provide the physical element and can adjust offensively with lead back Christian McCaffrey. If the Dolphins add that type of versatility offensively with a top-10 defense, that could be the key to beating teams with winning records and possibly ending the Buffalo Bills’ streak of four consecutive AFC East titles. McDaniel hired Anthony Weaver to replace Vic Fangio as the defensive coordinator. 

Worst-case scenario: Dolphins don’t evolve from speedy scheme 

Tagovailoa often takes plenty of heat for the team’s lack of wins against physical teams, but the blame should also fall on McDaniel for failing to adjust when defenses limit the downfield opportunities for the high-octane offense. Being a one-trick pony rarely works for an entire season because defenses watch film and quickly learn how to counter strengths of offenses. If Miami doesn’t show improvement with in-game adjustments, that could lead to another disappointing season and probably without the hot September the team reeled off last year.

This will be a pivotal season for Tagovailoa if he doesn’t get his contract extension and for McDaniel if he fails to evolve as a head coach and play-caller. 

Head coach-quarterback tandem ranking

No. 14: Mike McDaniel (11) and Tua Tagovailoa (16)

The Dolphins have made the playoffs the past two seasons only to be bounced in the wild-card round. Now, Miami has a looming decision on whether to extend Tagovailoa and for how much, while McDaniel tries to win his first division title. If the Dolphins can do so, they’ll have a great shot to advance while finally playing above frigid temperatures. —Matt Verderame

Raheem Mostert scored 18 touchdowns to lead all NFL running backs last season, tallying four more than second-place Christian McCaffrey. / JIM RASSOL/THE PALM BEACH POST / USA

Fantasy pick: RB Raheem Mostert

Mostert was one of last season’s fantasy studs, finishing as RB2 in standard and .5 PPR leagues by operating as the lead back in Miami’s explosive offense to score 21 touchdowns. That’s more than he had scored in his previous eight years combined! On one hand, besides the inevitable touchdown regression he’ll experience, Mostert is entering his age-32 season after a 2023 campaign that saw the injury-prone back post a career high in touches (he’s had 446 touches since he turned 30). Miami will also probably hand more carries to Achane and Jaylen Wright, who was selected in the fourth round. But there are enough touches to go around in this offense. —Michael Fabiano

Best bet:  Tyreek Hill over 1375.5 receiving yards (+105) at DraftKings

Since making the move to Miami two years ago, Hill has consecutive seasons with 170 targets and 1,700-plus receiving yards.  He has great chemistry with Tagovailoa, and, barring injury, there’s no reason to think he’ll see a substantial decline this year. We’re getting even money for this one, too. —Jen Piacenti

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