Addressing the Biggest Tua Question of All

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa put up big numbers the past two seasons, but it's fair to wonder how many other quarterbacks would have similar success in this scheme

Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel talks with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa prior to the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Hard Rock Stadium last December. / Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

As we continue to wait for the still-expected agreement between the Miami Dolphins and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on a lucrative contract extension, one important question still lingers.

And it may be the biggest question of all.

Simply, how badly do the Dolphins need Tagovailoa to make their offense work?

It remains a hotly debated topic, even among NFL analysts, some of them former quarterbacks who view things differently.

In the past couple of weeks alone, Dan Orlovsky said there weren’t five quarterbacks around who could make the Dolphins offense function the way Tua does, but Brian Hoyer expressed an opposite viewpoint by suggesting that Tua is a “system quarterback” and the Dolphins could find somebody to lead the offense at a much cheaper price than a potential extension would cost.

THE OFFENSIVE SUCCESS WITH TUA

In the two years he’s operated the offense under Mike McDaniel, it’s hard to argue with Tagovailoa’s production.

As has been well documented, Tua led the NFL in passer rating in 2022, then led the league in passing yards last year when his passer rating topped 100 for a second consecutive season, his work rewarded by his first Pro Bowl invitation.

Tua’s quick release and accuracy have played a key role in the success of the passing game, and this was a unit that led the NFL in total yardage in 2023.

By any statistical measure, Tua is the best Dolphins quarterback since Dan Marino retired in March of 2000 and he also was in the MVP conversation each of the past two seasons because fading down the stretch.

HOW MUCH IS TUA AND HOW MUCH IS THE SYSTEM?

Without question, there’s a good marriage here between quarterback and system, a system that’s been custom-fitted to play to the strength of the quarterback — as any good scheme designer would do.

The system is an offshoot of the scheme that served former Super Bowl coach Mike Shanahan so well for his many years with the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Raiders, a system that’s been used as the inspiration for his protégés, starting with his son Kyle as well as Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur and finally McDaniel — the latter four were assistants on Mike Shanahan’s star-studded coaching staff with Washington in 2012.

And what the four head coaches have in common is quarterbacks that have put up good numbers.

Under Kyle Shanahan, Jimmy Garoppolo had two seasons with a passer rating higher than 100, and 2022 seventh-round pick Brock Purdy reached triple digits in each of his two seasons.

After Sean McVay arrived to become head coach of the Los Angeles Rams, Jared Goff put together two seasons with a passer rating over 100, and Matthew Stafford achieved a 102.9 mark in his first year with the Rams after topping 100 once in 12 seasons with the Detroit Lions.

Finally, we turn to Green Bay, where Matt LaFleur took over as head coach in 2020 and Aaron Rodgers took home NFL MVP honors in the first two seasons they were together. Of course, Rodgers already had been named MVP twice, but he also was coming off three seasons with a passer rating in the 90s after reaching 100 seven times in his first nine seasons as a starter.

Before they became head coaches, LaFleur, McVay and Kyle Shanahan also served as offensive coordinator and they regularly produced quarterbacks with a passer rating of 100 or higher. There was Kirk Cousins in Washington with McVay as his OC, RG III in Washington with Shanahan, Matt Ryan with his MVP season with Shanahan in Atlanta. And then Matt Schaub produced a 98.6 with Shanahan as his OC in Houston in 2009.

Now, let's point out that having one of those coaches automatically means a high passer rating because it didn't work out that way with Trey Lance in San Francisco and, ironically enough, with Brian Hoyer in Cleveland in 2014.

But the overriding point here should be obvious: The (Mike) Shanahan-inspired offensive scheme sure seems to produce impressive stats for quarterbacks.

And this is where it can get tricky when it comes to determining the exact value of who’s behind center.

And this is part of the decision-making process for the Dolphins when it comes to how much they’re willing to commit financially to Tua.

THE BOTTOM LINE

So whose opinion should we trust more when it comes to exactly how vital Tua is to the Dolphins offense: Orlovsky or Hoyer?

As with every discussion involving Tua, we’d expect strong fan reaction on either side of issue when the reality is that the truth maybe, probably lies somewhere in the middle.

And for those fans who will bring up the Dolphins' 1-3 record in the four regular season games that Tua missed during the 2022 season, understand that left tackle Terron Armstead — easily the team's best offensive lineman that season — played a total of eight snaps combined in the three losses, the defense recorded ZERO takeaways in any of the three losses, and there was a mid-game quarterback change due to injury in all three losses.

Ultimately, though, it will be up to the Dolphins to make that decision and mix it in with all the other factors involved to see where they want to take their offer to their starting quarterback.

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