Are These the Same Old Dolphins?

The Miami Dolphins have followed some of the same patterns they have under head coach Mike McDaniel

Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel runs off the field following a victory over the Las Vegas Raiders at Hard Rock Stadium. / Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

To quote the famous saying, "Is this deja vu all over again?"

Are the Miami Dolphins the same team they've been for the past couple of seasons, the team that looks like a Super Bowl contender against lesser opponents but can't rise up against playoff-caliber competition?

No matter what happens, these 2024 Dolphins deserve credit for fighting back after their disastrous 2-6 start, largely the product of having a dysfunctional offense while Tua Tagovailoa spent a month on injured reserve because of another concussion, but whether they're destined for a different ending is still up in the air.

And it's not because they got themselves so far behind the 8-ball, but because we just don't know whether these Dolphins really are different right now while they're on a roll than they were in 2022 or 2023.

If the Dolphins indeed are different, meaning better and able to compete and win against quality opposition on the road, they should be able to overcome that 2-6 start because the remainder of their schedule is very favorable.

TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE SCHEDULE

The Dolphins look as good as just about any team in the NFL right now riding a three-game winning streak that's moved their record to 5-6, but it comes with a caveat.

It's one that a large portion of the fan base doesn't want to hear, but facts are facts.

The Dolphins once again are feasting on bad teams.

Take the three-game winning streak, for starters. It has come against the 5-6 Los Angeles Rams, the 2-9 Las Vegas Raiders and the 3-9 New England Patriots.

Overall, the Dolphins' five victories have come against teams with a combined winning percentage of .263, easily the lowest percentage of any team in the league with at least five wins — Washington is second-lowest at .312.

And their overall strength of schedule so far has them with the second-easiest road among the teams with at least five wins, with their .427 beating only the Philadelphia Eagles' .410.

But this is where it gets almost creepy: The Dolphins have played four games against teams that currently have a winning record, and they're 0-4. They're 5-2 in the other seven games.

Sounds a lot like 2023, no? The record in 2023 against teams with ended up in the playoffs 1-4, 1-5 if you include the playoff game at Kansas City. In 2022, that record was 2-6 with the playoff game at Buffalo. And the losses came after the Dolphins started 2-0 in those games.

Do the math, and the Dolphins are 1-15 in their past 16 games against teams that made the playoffs the past two seasons or have a winning record this year.

That lack of proven ability to beat good teams is the only reason, really, the Dolphins aren't given a better percentage in terms of being able to make the playoffs in 2024.

As head coach Mike McDaniel is well aware, there's clearly a factor of "we'll believe it when we see it" when it comes to his team's ability to rise to the occasion, like the Thanksgiving night game against the Green Bay Packers.

The Dolphins' signature win under McDaniel probably would have to be the 2022 comeback against the Baltimore Ravens, but that happened in Week 2.

Winning at Green Bay on Thursday night would supplant that, from this vantage point, given the circumstances and the stakes.

It would clear a major hurdle for the Dolphins, and set the stage for a five-game run for the playoffs.

The biggest reason for optimism, really, comes not from a previous win, but rather a loss. Specifically, it was the Week 8 game at Buffalo when the Dolphins played an even game against the AFC powerhouse Bills before losing on a last-minute field goal.

The offense was productive that day, and it meant a lot more coming against the Bills than putting up 30-plus points against both the lowly Raiders and Patriots.

More importantly, it would be a sign that these aren't the same old Dolphins and maybe the ending will be more positive.