Can the Dolphins Pull Off the Impossible (Or At Least Improbable)?

The Miami Dolphins need a victory at Buffalo to keep their playoff hopes realistically alive.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) is hit by Miami Dolphins defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (94) and defensive tackle Zach Sieler (92) during the first half in a NFL wild card game at Highmark Stadium in the 2022 playoffs. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins' playoff hopes appear to be on life support, and the last thing the team or their fans needed this week was the specter of a trip to Buffalo.

The Dolphins really, really need a win because you just don't make the playoffs after starting 2-6, and the Dolphins just don't win in Buffalo.

Eight years ago, in 2016, the Dolphins last defeated the Bills in Buffalo. With backup quarterback Matt Moore at quarterback, they won 34-31 in overtime on their way to their only playoff berth between 2008 and 2022.

The Dolphins opened the game as 6- or 6.5-point underdogs, depending on where you looked. This seemed like a very conservative spread given that Miami has lost five of six and the Bills have won three in a row, including a decisive 31-10 decision against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on Sunday.

THIS COULD BECOME McDANIEL'S SIGNATURE WIN

Another ominous sign for the Dolphins heading into the Buffalo has been their performance against playoff or playoff-caliber teams in recent years.

We don't need to rehash the nasty stat of the Dolphins going 1-6 last season against teams that made the playoffs (including the playoff loss at Kansas City) after losing their final six such games in 2022. This puts them at 1-12 in their past 13 games against teams that made the playoffs that season.

Since the Dolphins' two wins so far this season have been against Jacksonville and New England, who both are 2-6, it's safe to suggest they haven't improved their record in that department.

This is the kind of signature win that's been missing from Mike McDaniel's resume as Dolphins head coach. The one win against a playoff-type opponent last season came against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16, but that was at Hard Rock Stadium.

His biggest wins so far came in Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2022 season, with the fabulous comeback at Baltimore and the 21-19 victory against the Bills at Hard Rock Stadium.

That win in Week 3 of 2022 was the only time the Dolphins have won against Josh Allen since his first start against them in December 2018.

THE DOLPHINS HAVE COME CLOSE

Given Allen's 12-2 record against Miami, including playoffs, it's understandable for Dolphins fans to feel defeated, but you know what they say about any given Sunday.

While they haven't won at Buffalo since 2016, they did come close not once but twice in the 2022 season.

There was the Saturday night game when the Dolphins lost 32-29, but they were the ones with the ball. With the score tied late and the chance to win the game before they punted, Allen drove the Bills down the field for a game-winning field goal.

And then there was the playoff game, in which the Dolphins lost 34-31 despite starting rookie seventh-round pick Skylar Thompson at quarterback when they had the ball around midfield late until their fourth-down attempt failed.

Yes, it's a bottom-line business, and the Dolphins did lose those games — like they have all others at Buffalo the past seven years—but the streak has to end sometime, doesn't it?

It sure seems unlikely to happen this year, but that's why they play the games.

This kind of improbable win would be uplifting and provide some glimmer of hope for the rest of 2024.