Tua Data: How His 2023 Season Compared to 2022
There was some deja vu for the Miami Dolphins in 2023 when it comes to the performance of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
For a second consecutive season, he started off hot, cooled down a bit, and got hot again before a disappointing end for him and the team.
He also ended up leading the league in one major passing category each year, for passer rating in 2022 and for passing yards in 2023.
But his overall statistics took a bit of a dip in the just-concluded season, which is something important for the team to analyze as it ponders the key offseason question regarding his contract status.
We also must point out, as we did in all circumstances, that stats don't tell the whole story because while Tua was able to play all 17 games in 2023, there were more significant injury issues around him on offense than there were in 2022.
All that said, let's examine the numbers from 2022 to 2023 along with what they might tell us.
THROWING DOWN THE FIELD
While our memories are fresh with all those long completions from Tua to Tyreek Hill, what the data says is the Dolphins didn't throw down the field nearly as much in 2023 as they did in 2022.
Maybe the stat that stands out here is that Tua had 12 completions of 40-plus yards in 12-plus games in 2022, compared to 11 in 17 games in 2023.
Tua's average gain per attempt also went down from 8.87 to 8.26, though that 2023 figure still was good for second in the NFL after he led the league in that category in 2022.
The big drop-off here came in average pass length, which went from 9.57 yards (second in the NFL) to 7.65 (tied for 17th).
In the advanced stats category of intended air yards per attempt, Tua went from 9.5 (second in the NFL) in 2022 to 7.7 (tied for 15th).
Finally, in terms of yards, Tua got a lot more help from yards after the catch in 2023 (5.6 per completion) than he did in 2022 (4.9).
Conclusion: Whatever the reason, the Dolphins didn't throw downfield nearly as much this past season.
THE CLUTCH METRICS
The one area where Tua took a big step forward statistically in 2023 was his December performance.
He put up a 95.6 passer rating for the six December games (adding the Jan. 7 game against Buffalo), a marked improvent over his 80.5 from the four December games of 2022 before he was sidelined by his second diagnosed concussion.
Tua also had another good season in terms of third-down passing with a 102.5 rating, though he couldn't match the remarkable 130.1 he produced in 2022 (not going to hold that against him).
His passer ratings also were more than respectable with the score difference in the game at seven points or less (93.9) and when the Dolphins were trailing (97.8), though he had great score in each area in 2022 (109.4 and 110.0).
Where Tua took a big dip in 2023 was in his fourth-quarter passer rating, which went from a pretty good 96.2 to a troublesome 75.9, and when trailing with under four minutes left (from 77.7 to 67.8).
Conclusion: The clutch metrics showed a step backward for Tua, none more troubling than the overall fourth-quarter performances.
PRESSURE AND SCRAMBLING
One area where the visually was a major difference was with Tua's scrambling. He looks bigger after an offseason spent building up his body trying to become more durable, but that didn't do his scrambling ability any favors.
Tua actually ran the ball more often on a per-game basis in 2023, but his average per gain went down from 3.0 to 2.1 and his rushing yards per game went from 5.4 to 4.4.
In terms of pressure, Tua was pressured on 15.7 on his passes in 2023, per Pro Football Reference, an improvement over the 20.0 mark of 2022, though some of that can be attributed to the increase in quick throws after the snap.
Tua wound up with the lowest average pocket time (2.1 seconds) in the NFL in 2023, again partly a result of a lot of those quick throws, where he basically took one step back and fired the ball.
The average pocket time for 2022 was 2.3 seconds, which doesn't really sound like a very big difference.
Helped by some of those shorter throws, including jet sweep "passes," Tua had better numbers in the accuracy categories in 2023.
His "on target" rate went from 76.7 percent to 79.0 percent (seventh in the NFL), while his "bad throw" percentage went down from 15.8 to 14.3 percent (tied for eighth).
But even that doesn't account for all the improved accuracy, according to NextGen Stats, which had his "completion percentage above expectation at 1.5 percent (12th in the NFL) in 2023 after it was minus-1.2 percent (tied for 21st) in 2022.
Where Tua might have taken the biggest step backward in 2023 was in protecting the ball.
He ended up throwing 14 interceptions this season to go along with 13 fumbles, five of which were lost.
In 2022, the numbers were eight picks and six fumbles.
Tua had 29 touchdown passes in 2023 and his ratio of 2.1 TD pass for every INT was the third-worst among starting QBs who ranked in the top 18 in passer rating.
This is where maybe this isn't such a big deal because the two worst were Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
Overall conclusion: Among the arguments presented for giving Tua a long-term contract extension this offseason is that he's improved every year, but the stats suggest that actually wasn't the case in 2023 beyond his ability to play a full schedule for the first time.
As we've always cautioned, though, there's a lot more than raw data that goes into the evaluation of a quarterback because their success depends so much on what else happens around them.
Ultimately, it will be up to the Dolphins to decide whether the arrow has continued to point steadily upward for Tua and what that means in terms of their stance regarding his contract status.
