Could Third-Round Comp Pick for Wilkins Be in Jeopardy?

Former Miami Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins has spent most of his first season with the Las Vegas Raiders on injured reserve

Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (94) celebrates his sack in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

One consolation when the Miami Dolphins lost Christian Wilkins in free agency was the near-certainty they'd land a third-round compensatory draft pick because of the size of his contract.

But the very complicated, and somewhat nebulous, compensatory pick formula also factors in playing time for the free agents lost in their first year with their new team, and this is where Wilkins spending most of his first season with the Las Vegas Raiders on injured reserve could become a problem.

Wilkins has played only five games for the Raiders this season after being placed on injured reserve in October because of a foot injury he sustained in a game against the Denver Broncos, and that will prevent him from getting the playing time (based on percentage of snaps) necessary to add to his value as a "qualifying free agent," per Nick Korte of overthecap.com.

Looks like bad 2025 comp pick news for the Dolphins: Christian Wilkins has now seen his snap count fall below 25% on the season.

That means that he gets no boost at all in the compensatory formula, and that could drop the round his contract is valued in from the 3rd to the 4th.

— Nick Korte (@nickkorte) December 31, 2024

The whole formula regarding the "compensatory draft system" makes up Appendix V of the Collective Bargaining Agreement between the players and the league, it involves 11 sections, and it's complicated enough to give anybody a headache.

But to summarize things, Wilkins' huge salary — four years, $112 million, $28 million annual average — is what made the compensation a third-round pick in the first place and still could keep it that way even if the injury will hurt other factors.

THE INS AND OUTS OF THE COMPENSATORY PICK FORMULA

The key terms that apply here in the formula are Average Yearly Compensation (AYC) and Compensatory Free Agents (CFA), and CFAs are those players who sign during the unresricted free agency period and rank in the top 35 percent in AYC, which includes signing bonus, option bonus, salary, roster bonus and reporting bonus.

The qualifying players then are ranked by AYC with the lowest player getting one point, the second-lowest two, and so forth.

Then come additional points awarded based on honors or participation: first-team All-NFL by the PFWA or AP is worth 20 points; All-Conference (if not All-Pro) is worth 5 points: one point for each percent of the total offensive/defensive plays in which the player participated on offense or defense.

All the points then are tallied for a final Financial Numerical Value (FNV), and it's that FNV that comes into play when a team loses more CFAs than it signs during an offseason, which is what happened with the Dolphins in 2024.

Because of the size of the contract they signed, Wilkins and guard Robert Hunt were expected to land the Dolphins two compensatory third-round picks, according to overthecap.com.

And while Wilkins won't get any additional points for postseason accolades or playing time because of the significant amount of time he missed, his AYC still could put him in position to fetch that third-round pick for the Dolphins — understanding again that nothing will become official until March based on the 2024 announcement of compensatory picks of March 11.

According to overthecap.com, the Dolphins are scheduled to receive not only the third-round compensatory picks for Wilkins and Hunt, but also a seventh-round selection for the loss of safety DeShon Elliott to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Dolphins lost three other qualifying CFAs in Andrew Van Ginkel, Brandon Jones and Raekwon Davis, but those were offset by the signings of CFAs Jordyn Brooks, Aaron Brewer and Kendall Fuller.

Teams can only get a maximum of four compensatory draft picks in any year, with the highest coming at the end of the third round.

The Dolphins did get a third-round compensatory pick in 2017 for the loss of defensive end Olivier Vernon, who signed with the New York Giants after the Dolphins placed the franchise tag on him and then rescinded it.

WILKINS' DEPARTURE

Wilkins left the Dolphins this offseason when he signed a four-year, $112 million contract with the Raiders after playing the 2023 season with Miami on his fifth-year option.

The Dolphins' failure to retain Wilkins was a hot topic among fans and the media, with one side bemoaning the loss of a player the team drafted and saw develop into a top-end defender.

One argument against re-signing Wilkins was the size of the contract he got and determining positional value, but the fact he got such a big contract always was a plus for the Dolphins because of the compensatory pick it could end up bringing.