Dolphins Hoping Tua Can Buck Trend After Big Extension

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa will look to build on his 2023 performance after signing a lucrative contract extension, but recent NFL history suggests it's not a given.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa talks to reporters during a training camp press conference at Baptist Health Training Complex. / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Dolphins showed with their financial commitment they have all the confidence possible that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will get them where they want to go at some point.

It's a realization that Tagovailoa clearly understands, particularly in light of the fact the franchise hasn't won a playoff game since December of 2000.

Tua understands the expectations that will come with his new contract, the richest in franchise history.

"Now that all of this is done, this is behind us, we know heavy is the crown, so whoever’s wearing that, like right now, I’m the highest-paid employee in this in this office," Tua said during a press conference Sunday. "I’ve got to get my whatever together, I’ve got to get that right and get our guys moving in the direction that we need to go, to be able to do those things.”

TUA AND THE BIG-MONEY TREND

Tagovailoa is one of three quarterbacks to recently receive a second contract from the team that drafted him, along with Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars and fellow 2020 draft class member Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers.

All three of them will be facing extra scrutiny this season — like there could be any more scrutiny on Tua, but that's a different conversation for another day — along with looking to buck an ominous trend when it comes to quarterbacks in their situation.

Simply put, way, way more often than not, a quarterback's production dips in the first season after signing that big-money extension.

While circumstances vary and this doesn't mean we should assume anything regarding Love, Lawrence or more importantly Tua's projected performance in 2024, there clearly is a trend.

WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US

Before this offseason, there had been eight quarterbacks to get massive second contracts with the team that drafted them: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones.

Of those eight, four saw their passer rating drop (sometime dramatically) in that first post-extension season, the most drastic drop belonging to Allen, who went from a 107.2 in 2020 to a 92.2 in 2021, though he still led the Buffalo Bills to the AFC East title and had a brilliant performance in what should have been a massive playoff win at Kansas City if not the 13-second collapse.

Maybe more importantly is the record for each QB in that post-extension first season — fully understanding that other facts play into that.

The team giving the QB that big extension went on to have a worse record every time except once, the Baltimore Ravens going from 8-4 with Jackson as starter to 13-3 in 2023.

Last year alone, the Chargers dropped from 10-7 to 5-12, though Herbert's passer rating actually stayed the same at 93.2; Cincinnati went from 12-4 with Burrow to 5-5 with him before he was sidelined by a wrist injury; the Eagles went from 14-1 with Hurts to 11-6 when his passer rating fell from 101.5 to 89.1.

Here's perhaps the creepiest, if that's the right word, factoid of all when it comes to a big second contract: Tom Brady signed his extension in August of 2002 and the Patriots went on to finish 9-7 that season and missed the playoffs — the only time in his career that Brady failed to make the playoffs (other than his 2008 season that ended after one game.

But Brady and the Patriots rebounded to win the Super Bowl in the 2003 and 2004 seasons, so even that worked out well for the folks in New England.

The Dolphins surely wouldn't mind that one step back, two massive steps forwards happening to them, even though it would cause a lot of consternation for a while.

For now, though, the vibe is pure optimism that Tua and the Dolphins will be more like Lamar and the Ravens last season.

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