Dolphins Sunday Mailbag: Tua, Chop, Smythe, and More

What are realistic expectations for the Miami Dolphins offense with Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback?

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) celebrates his first touchdown pass to Miami Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker (11) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, November 1, 2020. / Allen Eyestone / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Part 2 of the pre-Arizona game Miami Dolphins On SI mailbag:

From David Nastli (@DNastali):

Since you like stats so much, what is all-time record of Fins v Cards including most recent meetings and details.

Hey David, you know me very well, don’t you? I do like stats. As I indicated in the comprehensive game preview, the Dolphins have a 10-3 all-time regular season record against the Cardinals, have won the last two meetings after losing the previous three. For some details about those games beyond what’s in the game preview, the 2020 game was Tua Tagovailoa’s second NFL start and probably the best of his first two seasons with the Dolphins. The 2016 game was notable for the knee injury that knocked out Ryan Tannehill for the rest of the season and, ironically, it was current Dolphins defensive tackle Calais Campbell who hit him on the play in question. The 2012 game at Arizona was the one where Brian Hartline had a monster game (253 receiving yards), but the Dolphins gave up a fourth-down touchdown before losing in overtime. Finally, the 2008 loss at Arizona dropped Miami to 0-2 in Tony Sparano’s first year as a head coach, and it was on the flight back from that game that the idea for the Wildcat came into play.

From Jake McVay (@JakeMc945):

Hey Alain, what's happening with Durham Smythe? He had such a good year last year blocking & being a sneaky good receiver.

Hey Jake, yep, that is the great mystery of the 2024 season (or at least one of them). It’s pretty clear he’s been overtaken by Julian Hill when it comes to blocking for the run game and Jonnu Smith clearly is a better receiver, so it’s left Smythe as the odd man out.

The OUTLOOK FOR THE DOLPHINS OFFENSE

From Dave Gober (via email):

Hi Alain! I have a confession to make. I fell for the glitz and glamour of a high-octane offense. The big names, the speed, the scheme, it was all good for two-thirds of last season.  This game is physical, it requires discipline, and schemes need to adjust to players’ strengths and shield their weaknesses, but sadly we aren’t doing any of those. This year we’ve played 4 games without Tua, and scored 3, 12, 15, and 10 points, respectively. Tua wasn’t tearing it up before his injury, and his return isn’t going to cure all — unless he’s also going to catch, run, block and tackle. I know injuries have played a part, but all teams deal with injuries. Why has this team failed in these aspects of the game? Is there hope, or have we hit the bottom and it’s time to push the reset button? Keep Up The Great Work!!!

Hey Dave, first off thanks much. Second, you make some very good points and what I’ve said all along is that operating a timing-based offense that’s more about speed than physicality always will reduce the margin for error because it’s easier to throw off that kind of offense than overpower a physical group. The idea of a reset isn’t crazy, but the Dolphins kind of doubled down on their philosophy in the offseason when they extended Tua, Tyreek and Waddle, so it’s hard to envision them dramatically changing the approach anytime soon.

From Jason Kirkland (@1bigdad424):

Hi Alain, based on the last handful of games that Tua played, I think it's reasonable to expect Miami to score about 20ppg with him back. While is an improvement over the 11ppg they've gotten these last 4 games, still not great. Agree or disagree?

Hey Jason, I don’t disagree, but the hope is that the offense will get better than it was in the final weeks of the 2023 season or the start of 2024 and not just continue on the same path. Because if it’s more of the same, the Dolphins aren’t going anywhere and will be in for a long season.

WHEN WILL CHOP ROBINSON AND QUINTON BELL STEP UP?

From Chris Shields (@shieldsc_):

All we heard during training camp was how awesome Bell and Chop looked. Now’s the time we need them to step up. Will this be the week either of them makes an impact play, and if not when?

Hey Chris, this is a great cautionary tale about falling for training camp headlines. Understand that beat writers have to come up with fresh content constantly, so players who come out of nowhere and look impressive and/or draw praise from teammates (happens all the time) will get headlines. It shouldn’t be used as a gauge. This happens a lot with edge defenders because pass rushing in training camp isn’t the same as pass rushing in the regular season. Having said all that, I’m not sure I’d hold my breath for a breakout by either Chop or Quinton Bell anytime soon.

From Dave Shelley (@DaveShelley627):

Wondering the status of Cracraft and if you think he’ll come off IR to help the depleted receiver room, or if he’s done for the season. Thanks!

Hey Dave, I don’t believe River Cracraft is done for the season, particularly since the Dolphins already have used up an IR return designation on him by placing him on IR on August 27. I also would think he’d be back sooner rathan than later.

From Rico’s RoughNecks (@TheFin22):

From a betting perspective, AZ’s team total is projected at 20.5. Are you on the under/over? I’m leaning over due to Murray’s dual-threat ability, Sieler out, and MIA’s improvement to score.

Hey Rico, understanding that anything I say here would be strictly for entertainment purposes, I did not have Arizona reaching 20 points in my final score prediction in my comprehensive game preview.

From FinFan Flop (@71jeffpre):

What are the reasonable expectations for offense now that Tua is back — provided injuries to Reek and Waddle aren't significant? Love your work, keep on keeping on!

That is a great question. If we look at Tua’s history, on those two occasions when he came back after missing multiple games, he was a bit off in the Jacksonville game in London in 2021 and was very off in the Sunday night game against Pittsburgh in 2022. That said, this is not a great Arizona defense and I would expect Mike McDaniel to try to get Tua back in rhythm sooner rather than later. We know the offense will be better than it was with the backups and we should be confident it’ll be better than what we saw against Jacksonville and Buffalo at the start of the season, but how much better, I’m not sure. And that answer holds the key to the season.

From Bubba (@bubbakeez):

If we lose on Sunday, what would Alain do if he was Steve Ross on Monday? Put money and contract aside, what changes would you make or would you make any changes?

Hey Bubba, I get the question, but I don’t expect major changes regardless of what happens and it’s tough for me to put myself in Steve Ross’ shoes because I wouldn’t have made some of the decisions he made in the offseason (Tua, Tyreek, McDaniel extensions). The only thing I would consider is perhaps seeing if I can stockpile middle-round draft picks (5th round, say) for players who might not figure in the plans for 2025, like maybe a Jeff Wilson Jr. or even an Emmanuel Ogbah.