Dolphins the Latest Victims of the QB Extension Trend (Or Jinx)

The Miami Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa became the latest NFL quarterback to get injured or see his performance dip after getting a big new contract.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) walks off the field with training staff after an apparent injury during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium. / Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

It's a nasty coincidence, but what happened to Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa continued an unfortunate trend around the NFL.

Simply put, sign your quarterback to a new big-money deal, and bad things will be in store for him and/or the team in the next season.

By our count, 11 quarterbacks got big-money, franchise-committing new deals over the past two seasons. The others besides Tua are (in no particular order) Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, and Matthew Stafford.

The quarterbacks' split was almost even between those who got their new contract in 2023 and those who got it this year, with six in the latter category.

One quick look at the six who got new deals in 2024 — Tua, Love, Prescott, Stafford, Lawrence, and Goff — will show that things are off to a bad start, sometimes a very bad start.

Of course, we can start with Tagovailoa and Love because injuries sideline both. As for the other four, the problem has been a dip in production — with the full understanding that we're talking about only two games.

Still, look at the passer ratings of the other four, and let's see if you can detect a trend:

• Lawrence currently is at 82.3 after finishing at 88.5 in 2023;
• Goff is at 69.6 after finishing at 97.9 in 2023;
• Prescott is at 81.4 after being second in the NFL last season at 105.9; and
• Stafford is at 88.3 after being at 92.5 in 2023.

Not one of the six teams that gave their quarterback a big contract in the offseason has started off 2-0, and the Rams and Jaguars sit at 0-2. The Rams are now without their two star wide receivers (Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua) for the foreseeable future, and the Jaguars' next two games are on the road against defending division champions Buffalo and Houston. Things could get worse before they get better for Stafford and the Rams and Lawrence and the Jaguars.

THE 2023 CLASS OF BIG-DEAL QUARTERBACKS

This isn't a one-year phenomenon, though.

Of the five quarterbacks who got big-money new deals in 2023, three saw their passer rating drop significantly, one stayed exactly the same, and Lamar Jackson was the outlier who actually improved.

Maybe more important was the record for each quarterback in that first post-extension season — fully understanding that other facts played into that.

The team that gave the quarterback that big extension went on to have a worse record every time except once, the Baltimore Ravens going from 8-4 with Jackson as a starter to 13-3 in 2023.

Last year alone, the Chargers dropped from 10-7 to 5-12, though Herbert's passer rating actually stayed the same at 93.2; Cincinnati went from 12-4 with Burrow to 5-5 with him before a wrist injury sidelined him; the Eagles went from 14-1 with Hurts to 11-6 when his passer rating fell from 101.5 to 89.1.

Going back in time, here's a truly bizarre factoid about a big second contract: Tom Brady signed his extension in August 2002, and the New England Patriots went on to finish 9-7 that season and missed the playoffs—the only time in his career that Brady failed to make the playoffs (other than his 2008 season, which ended after one game).

But Brady and the Patriots rebounded to win the Super Bowl in the 2003 and 2004 seasons, so even that worked out well for the folks in New England.

That could be what's in store for one of the 11 quarterbacks we examined here, but in the meantime, the weird trend continues.