Dolphins' Tricky Playoff Path Even Clearer

The Miami Dolphins took care of one-third of their part to sneak into the playoffs, but they still could be eliminated before their next game
Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (28) runs with the football against the San Francisco 49ers during the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium.
Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (28) runs with the football against the San Francisco 49ers during the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
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The Miami Dolphins kept themselves in playoff contention with their victory against the San Francisco 49ers, but the reality is they could be eliminated by the time they take the field for their next game.

The Dolphins kept themselves within two games of the sixth and seventh playoff positions, which currently belong to the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos with 9-6 records, and those two teams will become out of reach with a victory in either of their final two games.

With the Chargers facing the New England Patriots at home Saturday at 1 p.m. and the Broncos playing at Cincinnati at 4:30 p.m., the Dolphins could find themselves eliminated by the time they go to bed Saturday night.

The Dolphins also have to worry about the Indianapolis Colts, who are tied with the Dolphins and the Bengals for eighth place in the AFC. That's because the Colts would get the nod in the event of a three-way tiebreaker if either the Broncos or Chargers finish 9-8 because the Colts and Dolphins would tie for best conference record among the three teams and the Colts then would get the nod because of their head-to-head victory against the Dolphins.

Ironically, the Colts might need the Dolphins to win out to make the playoffs because if they're involved in a two-way with Denver for the final spot at 9-8, then the Broncos get the tiebreaker because of their victory against the Colts two weeks ago. But head-to-head doesn't apply when three or more ties are involved unless there's a sweep.

To recap, the Dolphins obviously have to win their final two games at Cleveland and at the New York Jets and also still need two of the following three scenarios:

-- The Colts have to lose at least one game, either against the 2-13 Giants or the 3-12 Jaguars.

-- The Chargers have to lose their final two games against the three-win New England Patriots and the two-win Las Vegas Raiders (though both games are on the road).

-- The Denver Broncos have to lose their final two games on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals and at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs will rest most of their front-line players if they have clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs before Week 18, but for that to happen they will have to win at Pittsburgh on Christmas Day or the Bills will have to lose against the Jets on Sunday. That means the Dolphins and their fans should root for the Steelers.

THE POSSIBLE FINAL SCENARIOS WITH THE DOLPHINS FINISHING 9-8

L.A. Chargers 10-7, Miami 9-8, Denver, 9-8, Indianapolis 9-8
6-7 playoff seeds: 6. L.A. Chargers; 7. Indianapolis

L.A. Chargers 10-7, Miami 9-8, Denver 9-8, Indianapolis 8-9
6-7 playoff seeds: 6. L.A. Chargers; 7. Miami

Denver 10-7, L.A. Chargers 9-8, Miami 9-8, Indianapolis 9-8
6-7 playoff seeds: 6. Denver; 7. Indianapolis

Denver 10-7, L.A. Chargers 9-8, Miami 9-8, Indianapolis 8-9
6-7 playoff seedes: 6. Denver; 7. Miami

Note: If the Chargers and Broncos each reach 10 victories, they will land the last two AFC playoff spots. Kansas City, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Houston already have clinched playoff spots


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Alain Poupart
ALAIN POUPART

Alain Poupart is the publisher/editor of All Dolphins and co-host of the All Dolphins Podcast. Alain has covered the Miami Dolphins on a full-time basis since 1989 for various publications and media outlets, including Dolphin Digest, The Associated Press, the Dolphins team website, and the Fan Nation Network (part of Sports Illustrated). In addition to being a credentialed member of the Miami Dolphins press corps, Alain has covered three Super Bowls (for NFL.com, Football News and the Montreal Gazette), the annual NFL draft, the Senior Bowl, and the NFL Scouting Combine. During his almost 40 years in journalism, which began at the now-defunct Miami News, Alain has covered practically every sport at one time or another, from tennis to golf, baseball, basketball and everything in between. The career also included time as a copy editor, including work on several books such as "Still Perfect," an inside look at the Miami Dolphins' 1972 perfect season. A native of Montreal, Canada, whose first language is French, Alain grew up a huge hockey fan but soon developed a love for all sports, including NFL football. He has lived in South Florida since the 1980s.