Examining the Dolphins' Long-Range Playoff Outlook

The Miami Dolphins will enter their bye as one of four AFC teams with a 2-3 record

Patriots lineback Joshua Uche reaches out to bring down Miami quarterback Tyler Huntley in the first half. / Kris Craig/The Providence Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Maybe there's reason for Miami Dolphins fans not to be overly excited about the team as they head into their bye because their performance so far in 2024 has been less than impressive.

But there's also reason for optimism and it extends beyond the seemingly imminent return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to the lineup.

It's more about the big picture, the AFC playoff picture to be precise, and how it shapes up favorably for Miami, assuming the Dolphins can get back to a certain level of performance.

The Dolphins will head into their bye this weekend with a 2-3 record, one of four teams with that mark through five games. That record is tied for eighth place in the AFC standings, half a game behind the Los Angeles Chargers, who are 2-2 after having their bye last weekend.

DOWN YEAR FOR THE AFC?

The AFC has been the dominant conference the past couple of seasons, but it certainly doesn't look to be the case in 2024.

The total of six teams at 3-2 or better through five weeks is the lowest for the conference since 2012 when only five teams were at that mark — there were a whopping 10 teams at 3-2 or better in the AFC in 2013.

The Dolphins aren't the only team that came into the season viewed as strong contenders who have gotten off to tough starts. The Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns all are 1-4, and the New York Jets are like the Dolphins at 2-3 and decided to switch head coaches with a game coming up against the Buffalo Bills.

Even the Bills, winners of the AFC East the past four years, have looked suspicious, with a six-point victory against the Arizona Cardinals in their opener and back-to-back losses against the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans where Josh Allen was under constant pressure.

Recent history also suggests overcoming a 2-3 start to make the playoffs is commonplace in the AFC.

Since the NFL went to the 17-game schedule in 2021, 14 AFC teams have started the season at 2-3 and six of them went on to make the playoffs, including Houston last season. In 2021, there were three AFC teams at 2-3 through five games and all three — the New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs — made the playoffs.

DOLPHINS SCHEDULE LOOKING DIFFERENT

Another reason for optimism — again, if the Dolphins start playing better football, as hoped, if not expected — is the schedule not looking as formidable as it once did.

That Week 17 game at Cleveland doesn't look quite as challenging now given the massive struggles Deshaun Watson is enduring with the Browns. And the Week 10 Monday night game against the Los Angeles Rams doesn't look quite as daunting, either, with the Rams struggling at 1-4 after making the playoffs last season.

And who knows what the Jets will look like in the final five games of the season, particularly if their offense doesn't get straightened out under interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich and new offensive play-caller Todd Downing.

Maybe this is the year the Dolphins start slow and finish fast, as opposed to what happened in Mike McDaniel's first two seasons when the Dolphins were 3-0 but faded down the stretch.

What's clear is the slow start doesn't mean the playoffs have become a long shot. Not by a long shot.