How AI Projects the Dolphins' 2025 Draft

The league website unveiled a project predicting to some degree each team's NFL draft outlook

Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty (2) runs past Penn State Nittany Lions linebacker Kobe King (41) during their Vrbo Fiesta Bowl matchup at State Farm Stadium on Dec. 31, 2024. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Artificial Intelligence has weighed in on what the Miami Dolphins 2025 NFL draft strategy should be, and it’s pretty much what most people have been saying.

NFL Media created an AI tool called NFL Draft IQ to help predict what each team will do in the upcoming draft. The model includes predictions for which players and positions each team is most likely to draft and predictions for how likely a team is to trade up or down. It also has a measurement for each team’s need at quarterback.

Let’s look at this AI model’s predictions to see just how accurate it appears based on what we know about the Dolphins’ roster and team needs.

Dolphins Trade Up Chances

The model is not bullish on Miami’s chances to trade up or down from pick 13. Their trade-up likelihood is rated at two out of five stars, while their trade-down likelihood is listed at one out of five stars.

We agree with the model on both accounts — the Dolphins aren’t likely to move up or down in the draft. While a potential move down from pick 13 is appealing, that would require some team to move up.

Those move-ups usually result from a strong quarterback class, but this year’s class doesn’t meet that threshold. The need for quarterback across the league is high, but all reports indicate most teams don’t view Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart as elite prospects.

Of course, there’s always a chance a team wants to move up for a player who doesn’t play quarterback. In that scenario, perhaps the Dolphins could consider moving down. The team has a lot of needs, and just three of its 10 picks are among the top 100 selections.

Chad Reuter recently had a five-round mock draft where the Dolphins moved back to pick 16 in a deal with the Cardinals to add an additional top-100 selection. We liked that trade value-wise, but it doesn’t seem overly likely for a team like Arizona to move up for an offensive lineman.

Trading up is an interesting conversation. The Dolphins need premium talent at several positions, such as defensive line, guard, and safety, but given their many holes, giving up capital in this year’s draft doesn’t seem wise.

The chances of a trade are never zero, but we agree with the model on this one.

Dolphins’ QB Need

NFL Draft IQ does not identify quarterback as a big need for the Dolphins, ranking it as two out of five stars. For reference, the Eagles got one star with Jalen Hurts, and the Titans got five stars with Will Levis.

The model’s two-star ranking for the Dolphins makes a lot of sense. The Dolphins aren’t likely to find a better quarterback than Tua Tagovailoa in this draft class, especially with the 13th overall pick.

We’ve covered why Sanders isn’t a good fit already, but the model does indicate the Dolphins could use some help at the position. We think the Dolphins would benefit from adding a young player with some upside behind Tagovailoa.

Tagovailoa is arguably the league’s most injury-prone quarterback, and the team currently just has Zach Wilson behind him. Clearly, the Dolphins believe in Wilson’s development, but his NFL performance has been dreadful so far.

Adding someone with upside to grow and develop behind Tagovailoa would protect the Dolphins in the short term and give them more options in the long term. Even if this hypothetical quarterback became a good backup, that would be a valuable, cost-saving measure.

We agree with the model here, too. Quarterback isn’t a big need, but it would benefit the Dolphins to at least consider adding another one.

Dolphins Draft Targets

The model also listed Miami’s top Round 1 targets, and they’re many of the usual targets. The list includes OT Will Campbell, RB Ashton Jeanty, CB Will Johnson, OT Armand Membou, S Malaki Starks, S Nick Emmanwori, CB Jahdae Barron and OT Kelvin Banks Jr.

Most of those names have been tied to the Dolphins quite a bit. We’d guess Membou and Campbell will be off the board when Miami picks, but Johnson, Barron, Banks, Starks and Emmanwori are all legitimate — and good — options at pick 13.

The wild card in this list is Jeanty, who is widely considered one of the best players in the class regardless of positional value.

Jeanty rarely gets mocked to the Dolphins for a few reasons. For starters, he’s not always on the board when Miami picks. Many analysts believe the Raiders, Bears and Cowboys are likely destinations for Jeanty.

The other, more relevant reason is that the Dolphins don’t need help in the backfield. The team has De’Von Achane, Jaylen Wright and Alexander Mattison already. While Jeanty is likely better than those players, Miami’s backfield is arguably its strongest position group.

They’ve also spent considerable resources on Achane and Wright. Achane is a former third-round pick, and the team traded a third-round pick in this year’s draft to the Eagles in order to select Wright in last year’s draft.

Mattison is a player the team should consider upgrading, as he looked past his prime with the Raiders in 2024, but drafting Jeanty would be overdoing it.

The model likely rates Jeanty so high for the Dolphins because he could be the best available player when the Dolphins pick. That’s a fair argument, and Jeanty undoubtedly would be a productive player if the Dolphins drafted him.

However, it’s also hard to justify a team with many more pressing needs using its most valuable offseason asset on a player they don’t need.

Dolphins Draft Position Odds

The model also predicts what position the Dolphins will select based on DraftKings’ betting odds. Those odds have the offensive line first at 36 percent, followed by the defensive line at 21 percent, safety at 15 percent, and cornerback at 14 percent.

These odds are basically identical to the BetMGM odds we evaluated a few weeks ago. This means the sportsbooks are largely in unison with believing that the offensive line is the Dolphins’ most significant need.

While it’s understandable most national outlets and sportsbooks feel that way, the Dolphins likely don’t.

Miami’s belief in Patrick Paul, who they selected in the second round of last year’s draft, and Austin Jackson is obviously much higher than anyone else’s. It’s absolutely a risk to rely on two players who don’t project as good pass blockers, but it’s how Miami has valued the position under coach Mike McDaniel.

Because of that, the team would play any offensive lineman selected 13th overall at guard this season. There are no pure guards talented enough to warrant a top 15 selection, and the best overall linemen — Campbell and Membou — aren’t expected to be available.

While the offensive line is a need for the Dolphins, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for it to be the overwhelming favorite at pick 13. There’s a realistic chance the team selects an offensive lineman, but we’d put the safety, cornerback, and defensive line odds higher on the list.

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