Kelly's Dolphins 53-Man Roster Projection 1.0
I have one response for everyone who says this is the most talented roster the Miami Dolphins have had in decades.
Maybe?
While the Dolphins have a collection of about half a dozen blue-chip players, and maybe another half a dozen who are close to that talent level, the Dolphins depth leaves plenty to be desired.
When you comb through what I’m projecting is Miami’s 53-man roster, you’ll see there are plenty of areas of concern on defense (defensive tackle, inside linebacker and safety), and the offensive line and tight end units are a bit underwhelming.
By my count, there are roughly six available roster spots up for grabs, and it would benefit the Dolphins' decision makers if they had an 11th hour of free agent signings before camp opens in late July.
Take a look at Omar Kelly’s way-too-early projections of the Dolphins’ 53-man roster.
DOLPHINS QUARTERBACKS (3)
On the 53: Tua Tagovailoa, Mike White, Skyar Thompson
Off: James Blackman (R)
Analysis: The Dolphins benefit from keeping three, especially when factoring in Tagovailoa’s injury history. There’s no guarantee White beats out Thompson. Expect that to be one of camp’s best position battles. Miami needs to investigate what’s on other rosters to find a quarterback for the practice squad unless Blackman starts to impress.
DOLPHINS RUNNING BACKS (4)
On the 53: Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Devon Achane (R), Salvon Ahmed
Off: Myles Gaskin, Chris Brooks (R)
Analysis: Mostert, Wilson, Achane and Ahmed are keepers because they collectively diversify this backfield with the skillset to do everything. Gaskin could possibly be stashed on the practice squad if Miami can’t find someone better/younger on the waiver wire.
RELATED: ALAIN POUPART'S 53-MAN ROSTER PROJECTION 1.0
DOLPHINS WIDE RECEIVERS (6)
On the 53: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Braxton Berrios, Robbie Chosen, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Erik Ezukanma
Off: River Cracraft, Braylon Sanders, Freddie Swain, Chris Coleman (R), Daewood Davis (R)
Analysis: Hill and Waddle are the two players Miami’s offense is built around, and Chosen and Ezukanma infuse size into the receiving corp. Berrios is a blossoming slot receiver and established punt returner, so he’s safe. The $5 million Wilson is guaranteed in 2023 keeps him on the roster unless the Dolphins find a team willing to trade for him. Cracraft and Sanders are the practice squad favorites unless someone like Davis, who practiced well during minicamp, blooms into a playmaker.
DOLPHINS TIGHT ENDS/FULLBACKS (5)
On the 53: Fullback Alec Ingold, Durham Smythe, Eric Saubert, Tyler Kroft, Elijah Higgins (R)
Off: Tanner Conner, Julian Hill (R); fullback John Lovett
Analysis: Ingold and Smythe are the only locks in this group. Everyone else is jockeying for the remaining three spots on the 53-man roster. Saubert and Kroft need to establish themselves as adequate blockers, respectable red zone targets, and special teams contributors. And Higgins and Conner are battling to become a seam threat weapon, a big slot receiver. Higgins’ status as a sixth-round pick gives him an edge over Conner, but his far superior understanding of the offense could make him a legit challenger to extend his stay on the 53-man roster.
DOLPHINS OFFENSIVE LINEMEN (9)
On the 53: Terron Armstead, Connor Williams, Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt, Liam Eichenberg, Isaiah Wynn, Robert Jones, Dan Feeney, Cedric Ogbuehi
Off: Kendall Lamm, Geron Christian, Kion Smith, Ryan Hayes (R), James Tunstall, Lester Cotton, Alama Uluave (R)
Analysis: Considering how ravished this unit was by injuries last season don’t be surprised when nine or 10 offensive linemen make the Dolphins’ initial 53-man roster. But to keep that many players on the fringe would need to prove they’re a keeper. At this point, without seeing how players perform with pads on, it’s impossible to say who is who, and what they can achieve so this list might change after the second preseason game. At this time Ogbuehi is one of the last player’s on my 53 man roster projection and it’s his experience that gives him the spot.
DOLPHINS EDGE PLAYERS (5)
On the 53: Emmanuel Ogbah, Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, Malik Reed, Andrew Van Ginkel
Off: Cameron Goode, Garrett Nelson (R), Mitchell Agude (R), Randy Charlton (R)
Analysis: This unit will likely determine how forceful the Dolphins defense can be in 2023 because even the best secondaries can’t cover all day long. They need the pass rushers to speed up the quarterback’s timing and get him out of a rhythm. Ogbah, Phillips and Chubb each have the potential to deliver double-digit sacks. Van Ginkel and Reed have the versatility to help in other areas, including special teams. Goode, Nelson and Agude are all realistically battling for practice squad spots.
DOLPHINS DEFENSIVE TACKLES (3)
On the 53: Christian Wilkins, Raekwon Davis, Zach Sieler
Off: Josiah Bronson, Jaylen Twyman, Anthony Montalvo (R), Brandon Pili (R)
Analysis: This group is relatively thin when it comes to experience, but the Dolphins made it work most of last season with the trio of Wilkins, Davis and Sieler. Miami needs one more player to step up in this unit to fortify depth and it could be that Pili ends up on the 53-man roster, or Miami could sign a veteran free agent like Akiem Hicks, who excelled in the past playing for Vic Fangio, or rummage through the waiver wire come late August looking for depth.
DOLPHINS INSIDE LINEBACKERS (4)
On the 53: Jerome Baker, David Long Jr., Duke Riley, Channing Tindall
Off: Aubrey Miller (R), Zeke Vandenburgh (R)
Analysis: I’ve got issues with the depth in this unit, and don’t intend on hiding it. What happens if Baker or Long go down with an injury? Are you comfortable with Riley as a full-fledged starter? Is Tindall ready to contribute? Miller and Vanderburgh could blossom in camp when pads come on, but that’s a lot to ask of two undrafted rookies. Miami needs one more veteran inside linebacker to fortify this unit’s depth.
DOLPHINS CORNERBACKS (6)
On the 53: Xavien Howard, Jalen Ramsey, Kader Kohou, Nik Needham, Cam Smith (R), Noah Igbinoghene
Off: Justin Bethel, Tino Ellis, Bryce Thompson, Ethan Bonner (R), Keion Crossen
Analysis: It would benefit Miami to start camp with Needham on the Physically Unable to Perform list because he’ll be 10 months into rehabilitating his Achilles injury when August arrives. Placing him on the PUP list gives Miami roster flexibility and doesn’t rush him onto the field. Igbinoghene edges out Crossen and the others because $1.6 million of his $2.1 million salary for 2023 is fully guaranteed. Releasing Crossen would clear $3.1 million in cap space, so he better be a head buster on special teams to earn his spot.
DOLPHINS SAFETIES (5)
On the 53: Jevon Holland, Brandon Jones, DeShon Elliott, Trill Williams, Elijah Campbell
Off: Verone McKinley, Bennett Williams (R), Keidron Smith
Analysis: Much like Needham, it would benefit the Dolphins to have Jones and Trill Williams, who are each rehabilitating knee injuries, begin training camp on the PUP list because it buys them extra time to overcome their injuries, and creates an extra roster space. But the Dolphins do need to see how well Trill Williams transitions to safety after spending his first two seasons as a cornerback. Campbell will be one of the harder 53-man roster decisions to make because he’s a valuable special teams contributor. He’ll need to excel as a defender to extend his South Florida stay.
DOLPHINS SPECIAL TEAMS (3)
On the 53: K Jason Sanders, P Jake Bailey, LS Blake Ferguson
Off: P Michael Turk
Analysis: The Dolphins decided to keep Sanders despite his struggles (made 26 of 32 field goals attempted, and 41 of 44 extra points) last season, mainly because $2.5 million of Sanders' 2023 salary is guaranteed. But he’ll be competing against the field, so he can’t struggle during the preseason. And Miami guaranteed all of Bailey’s $1.1 million contract, which means Turk, who averaged 47.2 yards per punt during his college career, would have to drastically outperform Bailey to unseat him.
