Setting the Stage for the Dolphins-Bills Week 4 Matchup
The Miami Dolphins will look to improve to 4-0 on the season when they face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on Sunday.
Here's all the pertinent info, along with a final score prediction, for this Week 4 Dolphins-Bills matchup:
MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-0) vs. BUFFALO BILLS (2-1)
DATE: Sunday, Oct. 1
TIME: 1 p.m. ET
SITE: Highmark Stadium; Orchard Park, N.Y.
WEATHER FORECAST: Looks like it's going to almost like a summer day for this game with the AccuWeather forecast calling for temperatures from 73-76 between the hours of 1 and 4 p.m.. ET. The forecast calls for mostly sunny skies with no rain and winds of 6-7 mph with gusts up to 12 mph.
Announcers: Jim Nantz (play-by-play), Tony Romo (color analyst), Laura Okmin (sideline), Tracy Wolfson (sideline)
STREAMING: fuboTV (start your free trial)
SI Sportsbook betting line: Bills by 2.5 (over/under 53.5)
Dolphins — OLB Jaelan Phillips (oblique) is out; RB Salvon Ahmed (groin), T Terron Armstead (ankle/back/knee), S DeShon Elliott (ankle/groin) and C Connor Williams (groin) are questionable.
Bills — S Jordan Poyer (knee) is out.
REGULAR SEASON HISTORY
Series record: The Dolphins lead 61-51-1
Last five meetings:
Dec. 17, 2022 at Buffalo — Bills 32, Dolphins 29
Sept. 25, 2022 at Miami — Dolphins 21, Bills 19
Oct. 31, 2021 at Buffalo — Bills 26, Dolphins 11
Sept. 19, 2021 at Miami — Bills 35, Dolphins 0
Jan. 3, 2021 at Buffalo — Bills 56, Dolphins 26
Dolphins' largest margin of victory: 38 (1970 at Miami; Dolphins 45, Bills 7)
Dolphins' largest margin of defeat: 35 (2021 at Miami; Bills 35, Dolphins 0)
Highest-scoring matchup: 82 points (1966 at Buffalo; Bills 58, Dolphins 24 ... 2020 season at Buffalo; Bills 56, Dolphins 26)
Lowest-scoring matchup: 12 points (1983 at Buffalo; Dolphins 12, Bills 0)
Former Bills players with the Dolphins:
TE Tyler Kroft
Former Bills coaches with the Dolphins:
Special teams coordinator Danny Crossman, associate head coach/running backs coach Eric Studesville
Former Dolphins players with the Bills:
WR Trent Sherfield, DE Shaq Lawson, DT Jordan Phillips
Former Dolphins coaches with the Bills:
Safeties coach Joe Danna, senior offensive assistant Mike Shula
BILLS SCOUTING REPORT
The Bills kind of look like their old selves again — you know, the team's that won the AFC East title the past three seasons — after an ugly season opener against the New York Jets in that Monday night game when they lost despite Aaron Rodgers being knocked out of action after only four plays. Buffalo rebounded with dominating victories against the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders, and we can say what we want about the quality of those wins, but the fact is the Bills won at Washington by 34 points against a team that came in with a 2-0 record. The Bills have pretty much the same cast of characters, the group again led by quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs on offense, a strong and deep front seven on defense.
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THE BIGGEST REASON THE DOLPHINS WILL WIN ...
Did you watch the Dolphins' home opener against Denver? What the offense did to the Broncos? Think about that game for like a minute and try to picture how the Bills — or any defense in the NFL, for that matter — can slow down that offense. Oh, and let's not forget that the Dolphins beat down the Broncos without Jaylen Waddle, who'll be back for this game. It's an offense for the ages through the first three weeks of the NFL season, with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert all rated as the best players at their position by Pro Football Focus. While it's obvious the Dolphins aren't going to score 70 points again, it's also difficult to envision Buffalo shutting down that offense the way it's been operating. And that means the defense might not have to do a lot of heavy lifting to secure a victory in this showdown with a takeaway here or there doing the trick.
THE BIGGEST REASON THE DOLPHINS WILL LOSE ...
We'll start with the obvious, and it's that the Dolphins aren't facing the Denver defense this week. In fact, they're going from facing a talent-deficient group that was missing one of its best defenders (Justin Simmons) to face a talent-heavy group that will be a challenge even without two of its best defenders (Von Miller and Justin Poyer). The Dolphins offensive line has been great all season, but hasn't faced a front seven like this one so far and maybe it will face some resistance for the first time. Then there's the other side of the ball, and what Josh Allen has done to the Dolphins defense through the years. Allen was in the spotlight for the wrong reasons in the opener when he tried to force things and turned the ball over, but he rebounded with a performance good enough the following week that he was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week — his honor was sandwiched around the Dolphins winning the award in Week 1 (Tua) and Week 3 (De'Von Achane). Let's also not forget Allen's performance in the Saturday night game last December when the Dolphins played more than well enough to win, but Allen keep making big play after big play.
FINAL DOLPHINS-BILLS PREDICTION
This is without question the game of the week in the NFL and it's a shame it's not the Sunday night showcase instead of the Chiefs-Jets matchup, but that's a different story for another team. The Bills have owned the division since the start of the 2020s, but it's the Dolphins who have been the talk of the NFL in 2023 with their ridiculous speed and nonstop motion on offense, all operating at peak efficiency behind NFL MVP front-runner Tua. No matter how good the Buffalo defense is — and it's very good — we again just can't see the Dolphins being completely shut down because one little mistake by any defense and it's a long gain because of the speed of Hill or Waddle. But the game is in Buffalo, where the Dolphins haven't won since 2016 and the Bills are the three-time defending division champs for a reason. So there'll be pushback. The Dolphins defense will have its hands full with Allen and company, but it's also coming off a three-takeaway performance and we're thinking it's going to be opportunistic again at the right time. Just enough to leave town with a huge victory. Dolphins 31, Bills 29.
