Kelly: Ten Tough Decisions Dolphins must make Before 2024 Free Agency
There’s a domino effect to every decision the Miami Dolphins have to make this offseason.
Every every contract, every shakedown, every restructuring has consequences, and ramifications that will not only impact the product on the field in 2024, but the team’s books moving forward.
The Dolphins are $52 million over the NFL's projected salary cap, and need to purge between $65-90 million this offseason to rebuild/retool last year's 11-6 team, getting the Dolphins to the point they re-sign their own free agents, and add newcomers who can end the franchise's 23-year drought of not winning a playoff game.
Here's a look at some of the complicated decisions that would merely get Miami to the starting block of free agency on March 11.
Complex Decisions
Give Christian Wilkins a $100 million deal or tag him?
As General Manager Chris Grier pointed out in his exit interview last week, Wilkins gambled on himself, playing on his fifth-year option instead of accepting the offer the Dolphins had on the table, and he won by having a phenomenal season. Now Miami must either give the durable defensive tackle the franchise tag by March 5, committing to pay him $19.8 million, or sign him to a contract that rivals the five-year, $100-105 million extension the Jets gave Quinnen Williams, and the Titans gave Jeffery Simmons last offseason.
Ride out 2024 with Terron Armstead or replace him?
Armstead mentioned retirement in his exit interview, and considering he fought through a laundry list of injuries in his 11th season, it’s reasonable for the Pro Bowl left tackle to consider walking away. However, it’s unlikely that he’s about to walk away from the $14.2 million he’s guaranteed if he’s on the roster on March 16, and $5 million of that figure is already owed. The Dolphins don’t have much wiggle room with Armstead because of the language in his contract, and the fact Miami restructured his deal last season to gain cap space. If Armstead did retire, he’d cost Miami an extra $4.6 million in dead cap, and the Dolphins would have to add a left tackle to the laundry list of team needs. It doesn't help that Kendall Lamm, who started eight games last season, is also a free agent.
Should Miami continue trading away early picks?
When asked about it last week Grier was non-committal to using the Dolphins 2024 first-round pick, selection No. 21, on a rookie, and it’s understandable why. That first-round selection is a poker chip that has significant value to teams that are rebuilding, and it doesn’t necessarily hit the same for teams living in the now, like the Dolphins. Those teams would prefer to trade draft picks for established players who can make immediate impacts. That’s why Miami’s shipped them away the past two offseasons for talents like Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb and Jalen Ramsey, and I’m certain Grier will be shopping for another proven star being dislodged from their present team. That decision comes down to the player, the fit, and the cost, and at this time we don’t have enough information.
Balancing the Books
Release or Restructure Xavien Howard?
Some purge decisions, like the impending release of Emmanuel Ogbah, a move that will clear at least $13.7 million off the cap when he’s waived, are layups. But others aren’t so cut and dry. Howard’s still a good player, but hasn’t performed like an elite cornerback the past two years, which justifies why the Dolphins can’t pay him $18.5 million in 2024, especially when they get all of that money back by making him a June 1 cut. The contract has some complications (guaranteed money, roster bonuses), but there’s a chance it could be reworked if Howard wants to stay. But at what price? And if Miami decides to move on, who replaces Howard, and how much money will that player cost the Dolphins?
Release or Restructure Jerome Baker?
Baker’s in the same category as Howard. The six-year starter is still a valuable leader, and an important contributor to Miami’s defense in 2023. The Dolphins have him under contract for $11.1 million, and get back $9.8 million if they release him outright. It’s possible that Baker, who contributed 72 tackles, 1.5 sacks and two interceptions in the 13 games he played in 2023, could re-sign for a deal comparable to the two-year, $10 million contract fellow inside linebacker David Long Jr. has, but Baker would probably prefer to test free agency for the first time before signing up for something like that. Complicating things might be his knee and wrist injury, which could impact him passing a physical in March.
Tender RFAs or expose them to the open market?
The Dolphins have two young, developmental players whom the team would probably like to continue to invest in with offensive guard Robert Jones and safety Elijah Campbell. Problem is, they might not be able to afford to retain them by using the tender, which would cost $2.8 million per player if they were given a right of first refusal tender. Teams must submit their tenders before the March 13 start of the league year. If not, that player becomes an unrestricted free agent and can sign elsewhere without consequences. Don’t be surprised if Jones and Campbell get one-year contract offers for close to, or around the NFL minimum of $1.05-1.1 million.
Locking Up the Core
Extend Tyreek Hill’s contract or restructure it?
Hill owns the largest contract for an NFL receiver when it comes to average salary ($30 million), and Miami could create some much needed cap space by re-structuring his contract, potentially adding a year or two to it. Hill’s due $19.8 million in 2024 and the Dolphins can turn all of that to a signing bonus, dropping his cap hit from $31 million to something in the $6-8 million range. It’s likely that Hill, who led the NFL in receiving yards, will want more guaranteed money and years on his deal, which is typically the price of doing business with elite players. The only way this could be considered a bad route to take is if Miami knows Hill’s physically falling apart, and doesn’t feel the All Pro receiver will be an NFL elite for another 2-3 seasons.
Extend Jalen Ramsey’s contract or restructure it?
Ramsey’s due $14.5 million in base salary, and has another $11 million in roster bonuses due, and all of that money is guaranteed because of how he restructured his contract to facilitate a deal to Miami last offseason. After 2024, there’s no more guaranteed money left on his contract, and that’s a horrible position for a 31-year-old, eight-year veteran to be in, especially after a season where he suffered a troublesome knee injury. Don’t be surprised if Miami adds a year or two to Ramsey’s deal, extending his stay in South Florida while also creating some cap space. The big question is, how much a year does Miami pay the seven-time Pro Bowl selection. Ramsey received $10 million from Miami last season, and his existing deal pays him $35.5 million for two seasons. That averages out to $17.7 million a year.
Lock up Tua Tagovailoa long term or make him play on his fifth-year option?
The Dolphins are on the verge of proposing to Tagovailoa, who has been a top rated quarterback for the past two seasons, but the bigger question is when they’ll say their “I dos,” signing him to a long-term extension. Doing so this offseason would lower his cap number in 2024, which is $23.2 million based on Miami triggering his fifth-year option. Miami and Tagovailoa’s camp would need to settle on a price-per-year salary for the 2024 Pro Bowl selection, and a multi-year deal would likely guarantee him three years at that price point ($40-50 million a season). Signing Tagovailoa to a multi-year deal this spring, or summer could reduce his season one cap hit from $23 million to $6-10 million, and that figure would be dependent on the details of the deal. Miami is fully committed to Tagovailoa because of his relationship and bond with coach Mike McDaniel, so expect a long-term deal to happen if both sides can agree to a figure. However, it might have to wait till later this summer unless the Dolphins need immediate cap space.
Does Miami lock up 2021 draft class studs?
This is the offseason where Miami will be forced to make tough financial decisions on Jaylen Waddle, Jaelan Phillips and Jevon Holland, the top three selections in the 2021 draft class. Miami must opt into Waddle ($15 million) and Phillips’ ($12.2 million) fifth-year options by May 2, and there's little doubt they won't do so. Signing both to a multi-year deal is also an option, but one that would require immediate cap space, which Miami has little of. Holland’s a second-round pick, so he doesn’t have the benefit of a fifth-year option. He’s slated to make $1.8 million in 2024 and his camp will likely be pushing the Dolphins for a multi-year deal that pays him like he's one of the NFL’s top 10 safeties. There are 15 NFL safeties earning $10 million or more a season in 2024, and that's before free agency begins. Don’t be surprised if Holland holds out (or hold in like Wilkins) from the offseason program and training camp, trying to force the team’s hand.
