Did the Dolphins Take a Step Forward in 2023?
The Miami Dolphins gave their fans a fun ride during the 2023 season, but it unfortunately ended in disappointment once again.
The Dolphins statistically were better on offense, on defense, in the running game, and who can forget that incredible early-season stretch when Tua Tagovailoa came out on fire in the opener against the Chargers and then the team put a historic beatdown on the Broncos in their season opener in Week 3.
But as we reflect on where the Dolphins are after their playoff loss at Kansas City, we have to ask ourselves whether the team actually is in a better spot than it was at this time last year.
DIFFERENT YEAR, SAME ISSUES FOR DOLPHINS
The biggest problem for the Dolphins in 2023 again was rising up to the level of competition.
Against bad or mediocre opponents, this team was as good as any in the NFL, and even probably better.
But the team again simply didn't measure up against playoff-caliber competition ... and it actually was worse in that department.
After going 2-6 against playoff opponents in 2022 (including the postseason loss at Buffalo), the Dolphins were 1-6 in the just-concluded season. And it says here the Dolphins looked overmatched more often in 2023 (first Buffalo game, Baltimore, playoff game) than they did in 2022.
That's a step back.
And again the offense, the one that put up 70 points against Denver and led the league in total yards, came up short.
The Dolphins didn't score more than 22 points against any playoff opponent this season — and a wise guy might add that it was against Dallas, a team that just gave up 48 points AT HOME against a Green Bay Packers team with a quarterback making his first playoff start.
At least last year the Dolphins were able to score 42 points against the Baltimore Ravens last year and then 29 in their December loss at Buffalo.
Again, that's a step back in that sense.
What the Dolphins did do better in 2023 was take care of inferior opponents, the Tennessee game being the one blip on the record. And we can excuse that one loss — though a lot of fans point the finger at that game as the reason the season went south — because every AFC playoff team had at least one loss against a non-playoff opponent. For example, Houston will play in the second round of the playoffs and lost against lowly Carolina during the regular season.
What's not fine is not being able to step up against quality competition.
And considering the Dolphins are now 1-12 in their past 13 games against playoff teams over the past two seasons, that's a sound-the-alarm type of problem that's going to require some addressing (a column for another day).
As for the defense, yes, it would have been nice to see how well it could have performed in the playoffs with anything remotely resembling the opening-day lineup, but the bigger issue of the season (defensive injuries aside) was the offense against playoff-caliber opponents.
That put a ceiling on what the Dolphins could accomplish.
DIFFERENT YEAR, NEW QUESTIONS AND ISSUES
As with the start of every offseason, there are important questions for every team and it says here the questions and issues might be more troubling now than last season.
We'll start with Tua Tagovailoa — because it's always about the quarterback. At this time last year, the question was whether he would continue playing and whether he could stay healthy for a full season. Tua succeeded in that goal, playing every single solitary snap other than those that came at the end of blowouts.
But now the question with Tua, after one more year of evidence, is whether he's a quarterback who can lead his team to playoff success and/or elevate the offense when things around him aren't going smoothly.
Again, this isn't a one-year issue because Tua and the Dolphins offense were humming along through 11 games in 2022 and Tua was in the MVP conversation, and then it went south once December arrived and the Dolphins had that three-game road trip against the 49ers, Chargers and Bills.
This year the MVP chatter lasted even a bit longer, but then came disappointing performances down the stretch against the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs.
Then there's the cap situation, which is much more dire at this time than last year, with the Dolphins in excess of $40 million over the cap, according to (appropriately enough) overthecap.com.
This means some major cap massaging is coming and the likelihood is the Dolphins will be saying goodbye to more prominent players than they did last year.
One contract issue that's worse now than last year involves Christian Wilkins because he's now a free agent and the Dolphins don't have the luxury of simply having him play out his fifth-year option.
And then we can add the significant injuries that could bleed into the start of the 2024 season.
At this time last year, the Dolphins had injured players with question marks as to how far into the season they would be able to really contribute and the same has happened this year. The difference is that last year it was role players Brandon Jones and Nik Needham; this time it's front-line starters Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb.
Lastly, we can look at free agency and the numbers of prominent players the Dolphins could risk losing, a group significantly more impactful than the 2023 group.
The biggest name among the Dolphins free agents last offseason might have been Mike Gesicki, Raheem Mostert, Elandon Roberts and Andrew Van Ginkel. This year, we're talking about Christian Wilkins, Robert Hunt, Connor Williams, Van Ginkel again, Raekwon Davis and Isaiah Wynn.
Again, way more problematic than last offseason.
So, yeah, the Dolphins did win two more games in 2023 than 2022, but it's awfully hard to think they're in better shape now than a year ago.
