Dolphins Face Huge, Not Insurmountable, Task
The Miami Dolphins' already daunting challenge of trying to win a playoff game on the road against the Buffalo Bills officially got more daunting when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was ruled out because of his concussion.
Oddsmakers reacted to the news regarding Tua and rookie Skylar Thompson likely starting in his place by increasing what already was a large point spread, and it now stands at Buffalo being favored by 13 points in most places.
But this isn't about point spreads, but rather the realistic chances of the Dolphins being able to pull off the upset.
And, based on precedent in the 2000s, we're looking at something not likely to happen but also not impossible.
The Dolphins-Bills game will be the 26th this millennium to feature a point spread in double digits, according to sportsoddshistory.com.
The Dolphins were involved in one of the first 25, their 2016 wild-card playoff game at Pittsburgh when they were 11-points underdogs and lost 30-12.
“We got whooped, that’s what I do remember," cornerback Xavien Howard, the only current member of the Dolphins who played in that game, said Wednesday.
The 2016 Dolphins suffered the same fate as most of the double-digit playoff underdogs of the 2000s, as 15 of the favorites covered the spread (won by a higher margin than the betting line).
But, and here's where the Dolphins and their fans can glean some hope.
In those 25 playoff games of the 2000s with a double-digit favorite, six underdogs won the game outright:
-- In the 2019 playoffs, the 10-point underdogs Tennessee Titans defeated the Baltimore Ravens, 28-12.
-- In the 2010 playoffs, the 10-point underdog Seattle Seahawks defeated the New Orleans Saints, 41-36.
-- In 2007, the 11-point underdog San Diego Chargers defeated the Indianapolis Colts, 28-24. Later in those same playoffs, the 12.5-point underdog New York Giants defeated the New England Patriots in Super Bowl, 17-14.
-- In the 2001 AFC Championship Game, the 10-point underdog Patriots defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 24-17. The Patriots then defeated the St. Louis Rams in the Super Bowl as 14-point underdogs, 20-17.
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DOUBLE-DIGIT PLAYOFF POINT SPREADS SINCE 2000s
2021 — Kansas City 12.5-point favorite vs. Pittsburgh ... won 42-21
2020 — New Orleans 11-point favorite vs. Chicago ... won 21-9
2020 — Tampa Bay 10-point favorite vs. Washington ... won 31-23
2019 — Kansas City 10-point favorite vs. Houston ... won 51-31
2019 — Baltimore 10-point favorite vs. Tennessee ... lost 28-12
2017 — New England 13.5-point favorite vs,. Tennessee ... won 35-14
2016 — New England 16-point favorite vs. Houston ... won 34-16
2016 — Pittsburgh 11-point favorite vs. Miami ... won 30-12
2014 — Seattle 13.5-point favorite vs. Carolina ... won 31-17
2012 — Green Bay 11-point favorite vs. Minnesota ... won 24-10
2011 — New England 13.5-point favorite vs. Denver ... won 45-10
2011 — New Orleans 10.5-point favorite vs. Detroit ... 45-28
2010 — Chicago 10-point favorite vs. Seattle ... won 35-24
2010 — New Orleans 10-point favorite at Seattle ... lost 41-36
2008 — Carolina 10-point favorite vs. Arizona ... lost 33-13
2007 Super Bowl — New England 12.5-point favorite vs. N.Y. Giants ... lost 17-14
2007 — New England 14-point favorite vs. San Diego ... won 21-12
2007 — Indianapolis 11-point favorite vs. San Diego ... lost 28-24
2007 — New England 13.5-point favorite vs. Jacksonville ... won 31-20
2007 — San Diego 10-point favorite vs. Tennessee ... won 17-6
2004 — Indianapolis 10-point favorite vs. Denver ... won 49-24
2001 Super Bowl — St. Louis 14-point favorite vs. New England ... lost 20-17
2001 — Pittsburgh 10-point favorite vs. New England ... lost 24-17
2001 — St. Louis 11-point favorite vs. Green Bay ... won 45-17
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