Friday Dolphins Mailbag: Tua, Wilkins, Roster Cuts, and More

Tackling all sorts of questions involving the Miami Dolphins

Part 1 of a mid-February weekend All Dolphins mailbag:

From Ben Reiss (@BenReiss1):

I do have one question I keep coming back to. When Grier said Wilkins has earned the right to go into free agency, was he indicating no franchise tag? Because that would definitely deprive him of free agency. A franchise tag now would make that comment a bit misleading.

Hey Ben, you make an excellent point, my friend. That’s exactly how I took the comment myself. It’s also the same thing Grier said last offseason about Mike Gesicki, even though in that case there’s not one person who thought the Dolphins were re-signing him after he did play on the franchise tag in 2022. All that said, there’s nobody who’s really going to hold Grier to his word if the Dolphins do decide they need to tag Wilkins.

From Dave (@angryvet59):

As an admitted glass half empty guy & this off in the future, if Dolphins are one & done again would McDaniel cut Tua loose & start with a new QB or would Miami start with a new HC & start all over again. I'm not getting any younger & Super Bowl dreams are fading.

Hey Dave, the problem with any hypothetical question about the 2025 offseason would need to include details on how the 2024 season would unfold. And the first step in this whole hypothetical needs to take place this offseason and that’s what the Dolphins do or don’t do with Tua’s contract. Playing along, I’m not sure the Dolphins would move on from either if they made the playoffs again, even if they again failed to win a playoff game.

From Jason Kirkland (@1bigdad424):

Good morning, Alain, you've said a few times that Tua's stats are misleading because he beat up on bad teams, but struggled against good ones. While you are correct, if it was that simple, why didn't other elite QBs smash those teams the way Tua did? Continue the great job!

Hey Jason, I don’t believe I’ve said that Tua’s stats are misleading but rather need context. And part of that context does include the ability to have success against playoff opponents as well as bad teams. Another part of it is the insane speed the Dolphins had on offense, where if things operated a peak efficiency, they had more explosiveness than just about any team. So, for example, the Dolphins’ speed gave them the unique ability to obliterate the Denver defense in Week 3 the way no other team could. Also, I’m not sure your whole premise is correct because Brock Purdy, just to name one, had big statistical days against lesser opponents too. Finally, beating down on bad opponents is all great, but the truly elite QBs will have big performances against all kinds of opponents.

From Fred Peters Jr. (@Fepj512):

What do you think are the “4 things to work on” Tua was referring to? How does bringing in a RB (Henry), TE, or “big receiver,” help this team when the Oline & Defense need to be addressed?

Hey Fred, just me spitballing, but the first probably would be taking care of the ball better after he threw 14 picks. The second might be making more plays off schedule and throwing outside the pocket. Then you could add making more playing running the ball. Your guess is as good as mine on the last one. As for the second part of your question, the Dolphins could use help just about everywhere, but taking care of the lines absolutely should be near the top of the agenda.

From T-Money (@DolphinsFanz):

Do you think Tua knows his agility was slowed this year due to the fact he put on some weight (to play a full season)? Will that be a crucial component for himself and this offense this offseason to add that weapon back in his arsenal?

I don’t think there’s any question that Tua lost some mobility with the added weight, but remember that so much of the focus and the goal for 2023 was for him to be able to play all 16 games. While it absolutely would be great if he could make more plays scrambling and getting out of the pocket, it can’t come at the expense of leaving himself more vulnerable. It’s kind of a Catch-22 situation.

From James (@Jay7kilo):

Do you think the firing of Flores set the rebuild back or was it the lack of good drafting from Grier or mixture of both?

Hey James, not sure I totally would go with the notion of “set the rebuild back”; it just hasn’t advanced as far as hoped. But while the Dolphins still don’t have a playoff win, they also have four consecutive winning seasons and two straight playoff appearances. Let’s revisit this if the progress stagnates.

From Luis Rodriguez (@Elfrjo3232):

As usual, you and Omar are killing it. Q: Why are defenses ranked by total defense as opposed to by scoring defense? So Dolphins were a top 10 defense but 22nd in scoring… you know that thing that determines the outcomes of games. Makes no sense.

Hey Luis, there actually are two specific rankings, total defense (yards per game allowed) and scoring defense (points allowed). The only issue with scoring defense is that it includes points given up by the offense (pick-sixes, fumble returns) or the special teams. Maybe a better stat would be points given up specifically by the defense, but even that one wouldn’t take into account short touchdown drives caused by offensive turnovers. The best way in my eyes to gauge a defense is to look at total defense, scoring defense and takeaways.

From Dark Mode hurts my eyes (@christopherroge):

Is the cap real? Asking for a friend.

Ha! I see what you did there. Yes, it’s real, but there usually are ways around it until you spend so much that you reach a point where there are sacrifices to be made.

From Ed Helinski (@MrEd315):

Regarding the Dolphins roster and adjustments that need to be made during this offseason, will Miami most likely use the precision of a surgeon’s scalpel, perhaps maybe a chainsaw or maybe, just maybe a pizza cutter to make necessary cuts?

Hey Ed, I do like the pizza cutter analogy (I use that often when I make pizza for my kids). If you’re asking me whether I think the Dolphins will do their best to keep as many of their current players as possible, I’d say, sure, but not to the extent as previous years because their cap situation is more tricky.

From Isaias Boffill (@BoffillIsaias):

So Alain, I’m curious, do you know who Anthony Weaver's high coach coach is and have ever seen him play? I’m only asking because I know you’re a football historian.

Hey Isaias, I did watch the Canadian Football League growing up, but I’m afraid I had never heard of Blaise Juliano before Weaver mentioned him as his high school coach.

From Olive Grove Jon @Owlizee):

Hi Alain. With limited cap space there will be more focus on the draft. What’s the most likely scenario you envisage knowing Grier like you do. Stay at 21 and take BPA, trade down to acquire more picks to fill more holes or trade away 1st round pick for a star player?

Hey OGJ, based on Grier has done in the recent past and the issues on the offensive line, I’m tempted to think he’s going to wind up staying put and take an offensive lineman. I think the best move just might be trading back a bit to pick up additional picks.