Kelly: Has Christian Wilkins Played His Last Snaps With Dolphins?

Will Christian Wilkins accept anything other than a market-setting deal from the Miami Dolphins?

The Miami Dolphins have a long and troublesome history of mishandling defensive linemen the franchise has drafted and developed.

The Dolphins hasn’t re-signed a defensive lineman they've drafted to a multi-year extension since Paul Soliai back in 2011, and that deal got done a year after they used the franchise tag on the nose tackle.

Miami let Jared Odrick and Kendall Langford leave as free agents. Olivier Vernon walked after the Dolphins tagging him, then removed it because they weren't willing to match the New York Giants' deal. And the Dolphins also let Davon Godchaux sign with the Patriots as a free agent in 2019.

That's more than a decade of being stingy with contracts for defensive linemen the franchise has drafted, and the organization's philosophy seems to be to use the defensive linemen up while they are cheap, and then replace them.

In fairness to the organization, the Dolphins did extend Zach Sieler's contract for the second time, signing the 28-year-old to a four-year deal that's worth just under $33.7 million days before the 2023 season began. But Sieler is one of the franchise's best waiver wire finds, not a draftee considering the Baltimore Ravens selected him in the seventh round of the 2018 NFL draft, and Miami poached him at the end of his rookie season.

Consequences to fifth-year option

Last year Miami opted to make Wilkins, the first draft pick of the 2019 rebuild, play on his fifth-year option instead of signing him to a multi-year contract that would make him a foundational piece of franchise.

When negotiations broke down, Miami signed Sieler, who happens to be the only healthy, veteran defensive lineman under contract with the Dolphins at the moment.

Wilkins, who grew up in New England and attended Clemson University, only knows Miami as a professional athlete, and he’s made himself at home in the organization, becoming the team’s emotional and vocal leader. He's this franchise's tone setter.

“I think we’ve definitely made big strides,” Wilkins said after Miami’s playoff loss against the Kansas City Chiefs. “There’s still room to improve as a team, as an organization. I think the formula is there, and that is what will happen in the years to come.”

Whether that will include Wilkins is still up for debate.

According to a team source, Wilkins felt lowballed by the organization’s offer this summer, which fell short of what his peers from the same draft class were getting. Making him play the 2023 season without financial security has encouraged him to play “hardball with the team, like they did to him,” the source said.

"And the problem will get worse if they try to make him play on the franchise tag," the source claimed. "He's definitely not reporting."

March 5 is important day for Wilkins

All of this could be gamesmanship heading into the negotiation period.

The Dolphins have three avenues they can take with the team's top free agent in 2024.

Miami could sign Wilkins to a multi-year deal that makes him one of the five highest-paid defensive tackles in the NFL, which is what I’m told Wilkins is seeking. That would require a four- or five-year contract that pays him north of $19 million a season.

They have until March 5 to use the franchise or transition tag on Wilkins, committing to pay him $19.8 million for the 2024 season. The franchise tag would allow Miami to retain Wilkins by matching any deal he receives from another team, or receive two first-round pick from the team that signs him as compensation. 

However, teams often negotiate a lesser trade price to acquire the player in a trade. The transition tag would merely give Miami the right to match any offer Wilkins signs, but his compensation ($15.8 million) would be lower than the franchise tag price. A transition tag wouldn't scare off other bidders, so it's rarely used.

And the third option is to let Wilkins become an unrestricted free agent, and subsequently outbid the competition for his services, or let him leave and possibly gain a compensatory pick for his departure in 2025.

All three of those options have pros and cons to them.

First off, defensive tackle generally isn’t a position worthy of paying a player $20 million a year. With the exception of Aaron Donald and Chris Jones, the teams that do it haven’t received a comparable return. 

The Dolphins experienced this when they signed Ndamukong Suh to a six-year, $114 million deal that guaranteed him $60 million in 2015. Once the guaranteed money concluded, Suh was waived.

If Miami used the franchise tag to secure Wilkins, they’d have to clear the amount of the tag in terms of cap space before the March 13 start of the league year, which is when Miami’s books need to be balanced. 

The Dolphins are $52 million over the cap without using the franchise tag on Wilkins, so that would put Miami roughly $72 million over the cap, and would require additional purges and roster restructuring. Clearing that amount of payroll can be done, but will require substantial up-front money from owner Steve Ross in signing and roster bonuses.

Exposing Wilkins to the open market could create a bidding war, one Miami is not in position to participate in because of the salary cap constraints.

And that’s why Wilkins and his camp hold most the leverage.

COMING FRIDAY: Part 2 of the Wilkins watch examines what his market might look like