Kelly: Dolphins History Hints Christian Wilkins' Contract Extension Might Never Happen

Former first-round pick Christian Wilkins has been a productive player for the Miami Dolphins, but a long-term deal for him shouldn't be considered a lock

Let me be the first to warn you that the Miami Dolphins don’t have a healthy history when it comes to re-signing defensive linemen the team has drafted.

Paul Soliai, a second-round selection in the 2007 NFL draft, was the last drafted defensive lineman the Dolphins signed to a second contract. And that only happened because Miami used the franchise tag to retain the nose tackle.

The following season Soliai signed a two-year extension with Miami. But before that it actually had been another 11 seasons since the Dolphins re-signed a defensive lineman the team drafted to an extension, and that player was Hall of Famer Jason Taylor.

This nugget of history is important because Miami is in the early stages of negotiating an extension with Christian Wilkins, the team’s 2019 first-round pick.

It will be interesting to see if the franchise handles him differently than it has players like Matt Roth, Phillip Merling, Kendall Langford, Jared Odrick, Olivier Vernon, Dion Jordan, Jordan Phillips, Charles Harris and Davon Godchaux

While some of those players (Merling, Jordan and Harris, to be specific) had rocky tenures in Miami, the consensus is that the Dolphins typically didn’t feel like the team’s home-grown defensive lineman (Roth, Langford, Odrick, Vernon, Phillips and Godchaux) were worth what the market deemed they deserved, which contributed to all signing elsewhere when their rookie deals expired.

For those wondering what this has to do with this Dolphins regime, keep in mind that General Manager Chris Grier has been a scout and executive in this organization for two decades.

Godchaux, a 2017 fifth-round pick who started 42 games for the Dolphins, was the last of the defensive line defections when he signed a two-year deal worth $15 million with the New England Patriots back in 2019.

Miami selected Wilkins as his replacement that offseason, and here we are four seasons later at this pivotal point again.

The Dolphins are having conversations with Wilkins and his camp about an extension, which would replace the fifth-year option on which the former Clemson standout currently is scheduled to play in 2023, which will pay him $10.7 million.

Extending Wilkins could create some financial relief for the cap-strapped Dolphins, who have $187 million in cap dollars tied up in eight big-ticket players for the 2024 season. But both sides likely are haggling over Wilkins' average annual salary.

According to Spotrac.com, a contract-centric sports website, Wilkins’ calculated market is $15.3 million based on new deals fellow 3-4 defensive linemen have received the past few seasons.

The contracts for Washington’s Jonathan Allen (four years, $72 million), Tampa Bay’s Vita Vea (four years, $71 million), Atlanta’s Grady Jarrett (3 years, $50.4 million), Dallas’ DeMarcus Lawrence (3 years, $40 million extension signed last offseason) were the deals used to frame this projection.

I’d argue that four-year, $57 million extension defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson got from the Cleveland Browns recently is more realistic. That deal averaged $14.2 million a season and guaranteed the veteran nose tackle $27.5 million. But who knows where the market takes that position next offseason.

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN ARE SETTING THE BAR HIGH

Tennessee recently signed Jeffery Simmons to a four-year deal worth $94 million, and Washington inked Daron Payne to a four-year, $90 million contract after using the franchise tag to retain him.

Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave just signed a four-year, $84 million deal with the San Francisco 49ers this offseason, which guaranteed the 30-year-old $40 million. But Hargrave producing 11 sacks last season, and 37.5 over his seven-year career, likely drove up the price.

Even though Wilkins has been a fairly productive defensive tackle the past four seasons, starting 60 of the 64 games he’s played in, averaging 72.5 tackles a year and contributing 11.5 sacks, one interception, forcing three fumbles and recovering four, I’d argue a salary that averages $15 million season for that type of production is a bit steep.

IS WILKINS AN IMPACT PLAYER?

A $15-million-a-season player should be an impact player.

While Wilkins did contribute 98 tackles last season, which was the most by any NFL defensive lineman in a season since 1994, are tackles impact plays?

What about tackles for loss, of which Wilkins contributed a career-high 16 last season?

My answer to that question is that they aren't.

The four-year, $65.4 million deal the Dolphins gave defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah last offseason pays him $16.3 million, and with the exception of last year’s injury-marred season it’s hard to argue that Ogbah, who has tallied 19 sacks in the 42 games he’s played for the Dolphins over the past three seasons, isn’t more impactful.

And keep in mind that some pencil in Ogbah as a potential salary cap casualty next offseason because he’s on the books for $15.8 million in 2024.

If folks are balking at paying a sack producer like Ogbah $15.8 million, why would the Dolphins sign Wilkins, who produces fewer impact plays per season, to a deal in the same neighborhood?

That’s why we could see this extension talk between Miami and Wilkins drag on throughout training camp — and possibly the season — since history doesn’t seem to be on his side.