Sunday Dolphins Mailbag: Tua, Cam Smith, Super Bowl Window, and More
Part 3 of the All Dolphins AFC/NFC title game weekend mailbag:
From Roger Dodger (@RogerDolfan):
Hey Alain, asking for friend now that defense is in full rebuild mode (Fangio, Baker and Howard gone), is Wilkins tradable? Can Fins pick up some valuable draft revenue from his trade?
Hey Roger, you can tell your friend that we “think” Howard and Baker are gone, though restructures are a possibility with either one. As for Wilkins, the Dolphins can’t trade him without re-signing him or tagging him because he’s going to become a UFA. And in terms of what you can get for him, understand that whatever team would trade for him also would have to give him a big contract, so you’re not getting a ton for him.
From Morbius (@MIAmorbiuslover):
Why do you hate Tua so much?
Let me address this for the 638th time. I do not hate Tua. I do not even dislike Tua. I like Tua. What I don’t like are those supporters of his who are so quick to throw around “hater” whenever there’s any sort of comment or analysis about his play that’s not covered in flowers and praise, like nobody is allowed to criticize/evaluate him the way we evaluate every single solitary player on the roster. Hope that answers your question.
From Rich (@moudlymuffin99):
Keep fighting the good fight Poupart (telling it how it is). Question: Realistically, how wide is the SB winning window ... or has it already closed?
Hey Rich, no, it’s not closed yet, but it’s going to be awfully difficult to keep all the high-priced talent for very long, particularly if the Dolphins give Tua a big-money contract. Then again, if Tua raises his game to join the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks, that alone might keep the Dolphins in Super Bowl contention for years to come. But that’s the big unknown at this time.
From Ofilio Arguello (@ArguelloOfilio):
Can we discuss the performance of the offensive line? Was it good against good teams or not in 2023? Does Tua need more time in the pocket or change his internal clock? Seems like we were playing too fast against good teams and we struggled when they took away the first read.
I think the offensive line absolutely was adequate more often than not against the “good teams.” The one glaring exception was the first Buffalo game, but that was Liam Eichenberg’s first NFL start at center and Terron Armstead left the game in the second quarter.
From John O’Connell (@cdawgs44):
Do opposing OCs adjust their game plans because of Wilkins' presence on defense? Wilkins earned his money, but does he bring 20+ million dollars worth of value to the Dolphins. At 10 million, he is a steal, at 20 is he overvalued? Thoughts?
Hey John, if we’re going by what other high-end (excluding Aaron Donald and what Chris Jones will get this year) defensive tackles landed in their contracts last year, I’d say $20 million is not outrageous considering Wilkins’ production this season. The question here is whether Wilkins impacts the game consistently enough to pay that kind of money, particularly when Zach Sieler had similar stats in 2023 and his average salary under his new contract is around $10M. It’s a tough call for sure.
From Matt DePeri (@MattDePeri):
What are the chances that Cam Smith is starting next year now that he's been let out of the doghouse with the Fangio dismissal? Everything I read and listened to during camp last year sounded like he was actually playing really well. They need to save $ somewhere...
Hey Matt, yes, I attended every practice and watched every preseason game and Smith was very good outside of a couple of blips where he bit on double moves. While I wouldn’t say it’s “likely” he’ll be a starter next season, I certainly wouldn’t rule it out as a possibility and that would be big for the Dolphins.
From TV Guy (@CurtisM59427242):
Poupart…love the work you and Omar provide. QB question—about Skylar Thompson. He played well two years ago considering the circumstances. Big arm, athletic. What did you two see in camp last year; any upside?
First off, thanks. What I would tell you is that I saw at QB with intriguing physical traits but also some inconsistency and I’m honestly not quite sure what the ceiling is with him.
From Paul Saunders (@PaulWSaunders):
How can the Dolphins adapt their strategy to be a more “all weather” team in December and January. Is it even feasible to play one way to start a season and another way to end it?
Hey Paul, it can be done, but the problem is the offense is based on timing and speed and several factors make that more difficult down the stretch, including the weather. The Dolphins quite simply beat defenses with their deception (notice how much they motion and run misdirection plays) more than by physically beating them and that’s harder to do late in the season.
From Ed Helinski (@MrEd315):
Might there be other Miami assistant coaches leaving for perceived greener pastures? If so, who could it be?
Hey Ed, there already have been reports of four assistants other than Vic Fangio who won’t be back in 2024, and new Titans head coach Brian Callahan wants to interview assistant head coach/RB coach Eric Studesville to become his offensive coordinator. Also wouldn't be shocked if QB coach Darrell Bevell ended up getting interest as an offensive coordinator somewhere.
From Mark Lever (@MarkFinsfan):
DC?
Hope: Rex Ryan. Prediction: Brandon Staley or Anthony Campanile.
From Batman (@Batman99166822):
Biggest draft need?
Hey Batman, it’s too early to tell because we don’t know which free agents will be re-signed, but an early guess would be an offensive lineman or a cornerback, with wide receiver not far behind.
From FanFaveFin (@Fin_Fanny):
Do you think we should invest in a young mid-round QB as a flyer (cheap contract, high upside) just in case things don't pan out with Tua?
Don’t mind the idea if you have a roster with few openings, but that won’t be the case with the Dolphins because they need to get cheaper options and the best way to do that is to hit on draft picks. Secondly, the Dolphins don’t have picks in the third or fourth round, so that won’t help. Third, the idea of being able to nail a QB late in the draft just isn’t realistic — Tom Brady was just a crazy fluke — because your legit QB prospects will be long gone.
From Dave, Fin Fan in VA (via email):
Alain, I am just hoping with all the hope I have that Bill "Belijerk" doesn't get hired & never gets another Head Coaching gig & remains 14 wins behind the real G.O.A.T. Don Shula. It just annoys me how he gets called the greatest ever over Shula. He has the most losses in history and is not in the top 17 in W/L %. And his W/L record without Brady is 84-103. I wrote you before that Shula's W/L record without Unitas, Griese & Marino is 76-36. And his integrity is unmatched. Thanks for all you do in keeping glory days alive.
Hey Dave, I hear what you’re saying, but those who would rank Belichick higher than Shula would point to his six Super Bowl titles compared to Shula’s two. I will tell you that I think you’ll get your wish because I’m not sure I see how Belichick is a head coach again after being bypassed for the Atlanta job.
From Mike (via email):
Hello Alain, this is not a Dolphins question, but I think it's relevant. I was just reading from Jeremy Fowler that there is a push to change the touchback rule when a team fumbles through the end zone because the current rule is “too harsh.” This, of course, is being discussed because of Hardman’s fumble in the Divisional playoff game. I’ve always felt is was too harsh. After thinking about it, I like the idea of treating it like a traditional touchback and placing the ball back at the 20-yard line and giving the fumbling team the ball with a first and 10 there. It still penalizes the fumbling team, but allows them to keep the ball with what amounts to a 20-yard penalty. What do you think?
Hey Mike, I don’t mind your alternative, but I’m also inclined to feel that if you don’t want to lose the ball, don’t fumble. Why should the offensive team get bailed out by the ball going out of bounds in the end zone? I personally don’t have a major issue with the rule. Now, if you want to talk about instant replay …
From Richard (via email):
Hi Alain! This is a far-out question but since Tua is a natural born right-hander, do you think he should try chucking it downfield right-handed? An extra 10 yards I believe would be a game-changer. Also, because Tyreek and Jaylen always get behind the defenders on deep passes, they should try a high shorter pass and get the interference with the defender running into the receiver (another out of the blue question).
Hey Richard, when is the last time Tua threw right-handed? What does that look like? I’ll give you points for the originality of the thought, but don’t think it’s that simple. As for throwing short intentionally on deep passes, the problem there is that along with DPIs, you run the risk of interceptions. But I’ve always felt the Dolphins should make full use of Hill and Waddle’s speed and throw deep often (which they did in 2023) because there are five possible results on those plays and two are great (catch or DPI), one is bad (INT), one isn’t good (OPI) and the isn’t great but not a big deal (incompletion).
From Jim (via email):
Alain, West Coast Dolphins fan since 1970 here... Question: If Bo Nix is still on the draft board at 21, should the Dolphins take him? Thanks for the great podcast...you're #1.
Thanks Jim, I’m going to admit to not being a huge Bo Nix fan, though I’ll have to watch his work to formulate a final impression there. I’m not opposed to the idea of taking a quarterback in the first round, but only if the Dolphins don’t make a long-term commitment to Tua.
From Dave Gober (via email):
Hi Alain, been following you since the Dolphin Digest days, and really appreciate your honest and insightful assessment and articles! My question is: Let’s be real, next season if this team fails to make the playoffs or loses in the first round of the playoffs (for the 3rd year in a row) it will be time for a coaching change, a potential GM change, and total roster rebuild. So does it really make sense to embark on a total rebuild with a new coach and GM being tied to a QB (who couldn’t win a playoff game) on a $45M/year long-term deal?
Thanks Dave. You bring up a good point and it's all tied to the decision the Dolphins are going to have to make regarding Tua. But who's to say the Dolphins' at-the-top decision-markers (Stephen Ross, Tom Garfinkel) are willing to separate Grier, McDaniel and Tua and aren't willing to ride it out more than just next season. I'm personally not keen on committing to any QB all the way through a seventh year without at least one playoff win on the resume.
