Setting the Stage for the Week 1 Dolphins-Chargers Matchup
The Miami Dolphins will look to kick off their 2023 season in style when they face the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.
Here's all the pertinent info for this Week 1 Dolphins-Chargers matchup:
MIAMI DOLPHINS (9-8 in 2022) vs. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (10-7)
DATE: Sunday, Sept. 10
TIME: 4:25 p.m. ET
SITE: SoFi Stadium; Inglewood, Calif.
TV: CBS
Announcers: Kevin Harlan (play-by-play), Trent Green (color analyst), Melanie Collins (sidelines)
STREAMING: fuboTV (start your free trial)
SI Sportsbook betting line: Chargers by 3.5 (over/under 50.5)
Dolphins — T Terron Armstead (back/ankle/knee) and DB Elijah Campbell (knee) are out; CB Justin Bethel (knee) and TE Julian Hill (ankle) are questionable.
Chargers — LB Daiyan Henley (hamstring) and OLB Chris Rumph II (hamstring) are doubtful.
Regular season series history: Dolphins lead 17-15
Last five meetings:
Dec. 11, 2022 at Los Angeles — Chargers 23, Dolphins 17
Nov. 15, 2020 at Miami — Dolphins 29, Chargers 21
Sept. 29, 2019 at Miami — Chargers 30, Dolphins 10
Sept. 17, 2017 at Los Angeles — Dolphins 19, Chargers 17
Nov. 13, 2016 at San Diego — Dolphins 31, Chargers 24
Dolphins' largest margin of victory: 37 (2014 at Miami; Dolphins 37, Chargers 0)
Dolphins' largest margin of defeat: 34 (1966 at San Diego; Chargers 44, Dolphins 10)
Highest-scoring matchup: 78 points (1986 at San Diego; Chargers 50, Dolphins 28)
Lowest-scoring matchup: 21 points (1999 at Miami; Dolphins 12, Chargers 9)
Former Chargers players with the Dolphins:
Wide receivers coach Wes Welker
Former Chargers coaches with the Dolphins:
Offensive coordinator Frank Smith was run game coordinator/offensive line coach for the Chargers in 2021; passing game coordinator/secondary coach Renaldo Hill was defensive coordinator for the Chargers in 2021-22
Former Dolphins players with the Chargers:
DL Nick Williams, offensive assistant Pat White
Former Dolphins coaches with the Chargers:
None
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CHARGERS SCOUTING REPORT
The Chargers enter the 2023 season pretty much the same way as the Dolphins, which is to say it's a team with some elite talent in certain spots but one with enough concerns that simple making the playoffs isn't a given. And like the Dolphins, the predictions among national media analysts range from not making the playoffs to reaching the Super Bowl. And also like the Dolphins, perhaps the Chargers' biggest addition of the offseason wasn't a player, but rather a coach, in this case offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. The hope is that Moore, who came over from the Dallas Cowboys, will be able to unleash the full potential of quarterback Justin Herbert, whose skill set is good enough to convince the Chargers to make him the highest-paid player in NFL history for a brief time (until he was surpassed this week by Joe Burrow). Herbert has a very good group of receivers with Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, first-round pick Quentin Johnston and running back Austin Ekeler, and the offensive line has some potential with the return of starting left tackle Rashawn Slater after he missed all but one game of the 2022 season. The Chargers have elite talent on defense as well with edge defenders Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack and safety Derwin James. Maybe the biggest question mark is head coach Brandon Staley, who could be facing a make-or-break season after the Chargers' epic collapse in their playoff loss at Jacksonville last January.
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THE BIGGEST REASON THE DOLPHINS WILL WIN ...
As mentioned earlier, the Dolphins' biggest offseason acquisition was a coach, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, and he could make a huge impact right away if he can come up with a game plan to slow down or stymie the Chargers offense the way the Chargers did with the Dolphins offense last December. The Dolphins do have the players on defense (even though it clearly would have helped to have Jalen Ramsey for the game). On the other side, one would think (and hope) that Mike McDaniel spent a lot of time in his preparations for this game coming up with a counter for what the Chargers defense did last season, which basically involved jamming the receivers at the line of scrimmage and focusing on keeping the middle of the field closed off for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins' success running the ball in the preseason — they were third in the NFL — also should offer some optimism, particularly going against a defense that has had problems stopping the run for the past few seasons and didn't make significant additions to help remedy the problem.
THE BIGGEST REASON THE DOLPHINS WILL LOSE ...
While the final score of the matchup last season indicated a close game, the reality was that the Chargers dominated way more than the 23-17 margin might indicate. The Dolphins were outgained 432-219 and still had a chance to win in the fourth quarter in large part because of their red zone defense. It also needs to be mentioned that the Chargers played that game without six players who will start Sunday, including James, Bosa, defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day, cornerback J.C. Jackson, and both starting tackles, Slater and Trey Pipkins. Yes, the Dolphins were missing some players as well because Emmanuel Ogbah, Nik Needham and Brandon Jones had landed on IR by that time, but Needham won't play Sunday because he's on PUP, Ogbah's role is uncertain but he won't start, and Jones is coming back from a torn ACL and his role also is uncertain. On the flip side, the Dolphins will be without one of their most important players on offense, with Armstead ruled out. So, big advantage for the Chargers there in terms of fielding a more talented roster than for the 2022 matchup.
FINAL DOLPHINS-CHARGERS PREDICTION
Maybe the most encouraging aspect in terms of determining where the Dolphins are in their current evolution is that there is not one game on the schedule that they can't win because of the high-end potential of the offense and what the defense might be able to do with Fangio guiding the unit. That said, there will be matchups that are more challenging than others, and this clearly is one of them. The Chargers maybe haven't been quite as popular as a trendy Super Bowl contender pick as they were at this time last year, but the bottom line this remains a team loaded with high-end talent. Even without Armstead, we have a hard time envisioning the Dolphins offense struggling the way it did in the December matchup at SoFi Stadium, and the antidote might be as simple as focusing more on the running game or maybe throwing a lot of screen passes to loosen the defense a bit. On the flip side, Fangio has had some success against the Chargers offense in recent years, so we wouldn't necessarily expect Herbert to pass for over 300 yards. The crowd also will be a benefit for the Dolphins in the sense that this isn't a typical road game because the fan support might end up being pretty close to 50-50. It sets up for a really entertaining season opener for both teams, and one that could set a course for a memorable 2023 season for the Dolphins (though a loss wouldn't be nearly as damaging). We expect a close one that could go either way, but logic suggests more things are working in the Chargers' favor. Final score: Chargers 27, Dolphins 24.
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