Dolphins Not Chasing Big-Name QBs in 2023

The Miami Dolphins are sticking with Tua Tagovailoa as their starter for next season

Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers obviously have a lot of star power, they still can turn any borderline playoff team into an instant contender, and they very well might change teams in the offseason.

But they're not joining the Miami Dolphins because the Dolphins are riding with Tua Tagovailoa in 2023.

That was part of the report from ESPN's Adam Schefter, citing league sources, that the Dolphins would have no interest in Brady if, as expected, he moves on from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the offseason.

This was the key passage in the ESPN story:

"The Dolphins are committed to Tua Tagovailoa as their starting quarterback for 2023, sources told Schefter, and were pleased with his development this past season under first-year coach Mike McDaniel."

This, of course, is in line with what GM Chris Grier said publicly the day after the playoff loss against the Buffalo Bills when he conducted a joint season-ending press conference with McDaniel.

“Yeah, I would say with Tua, he’s our starting quarterback," Grier said. "I don’t know how we could say it any more clearly. We’ve been that way through this season and what he’s done and what Mike (McDaniel) and Tua, (Darrell) Bevell, Chandler (Henley), the coaching staff have all done; they’ve all worked tremendously hard, all of them together. So Tua — we anticipate him, worked with and talking with the doctors and consultants and everyone we dealt with, we fully expect him back next year 100 percent ready to go and then we’ll get through all those decisions like I said, just like we talk about every player on the roster. Obviously I understand because it’s Tua and that’s why the question is being asked. We’ll go through our process, but he is our starting quarterback and will be next season.”

Where Grier didn't go in that press conference is whether the Dolphins will have Tua play out his rookie contract in 2023, exercise the fifth-year option for 2024 at a cost of about $22 million, or sign him to a long-term contract extension.

Given Tua's injury issues — in college and in the NFL — it's difficult to envision the Dolphins committing major dollars (Spotrac estimates his market value at $39 million annually), and there's also risk involved in exercising the fifth-year option because that's fully guaranteed.

If the Dolphins decide to stand pat with Tua's contract situation, they always have the option of applying the franchise tag in 2024, but that would come with a price tag around $40 million.

So the Dolphins have some time when it comes to making a long-term commitment to Tua.

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THE PROS AND CONS OF STICKING WITH TUA

The biggest reason to stick with Tua as the starting quarterback for 2023 is that his career clearly is on the upswing after his breakout 2022 performance and the fact he indeed could present the long-term answer if he can build on it.

Tagovailoa put himself in the NFL MVP conversation in early November after three consecutive games with a passer rating above 130, and still ended up leading the league in passer rating at 105.5 despite his play taking a dip once December arrived.

Brady and Rodgers likely are close to the end of their Hall of Fame careers, and they would represent a short-term option that would have the Dolphins having to again look for a long-term answer before long.

Of course, one possibility could have been to bring in Brady and have Tua be his backup, but then Tua's contract still would become an issue moving forward and also sitting a year probably wouldn't do much for his development.

There are two potential risks in sticking with Tua as the starter in 2023, the first obviously being the durability issue.

While Grier was adamant that Tagovailoa is no more at risk of concussions moving forward than anybody else because he had two (officially) in 2022, the fact remains he hasn't played a full season yet in the NFL without being sidelined by injuries and, like it or not, his small stature and lack of elite speed to get away from big defenders always will make him somewhat vulnerable.

And then there's the issue of exactly what level Tagovailoa can reach. While it's easy to harp on the passer rating, just throwing out numbers without context is shortsighted.

Tagovailoa indeed was accurate for most of 2022, but he was accurate before, except last season he benefited from the ridiculous speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and the wide open passing windows that created, not to mention the short passes that the players took for long gains — like Waddle turning a 10-yard completion into an 84-yard touchdown against Green Bay.

It's fair to wonder whether 2022 was as good as it's going to get for Tua, with a reminder that Nick Foles and Ryan Tannehill each had a season with a passer rating even better than what Tua posted this past season.

The reality is that the AFC is loaded with top young quarterbacks with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and now Trevor Lawrence — some would have Lamar Jackson in that mix — and it's going to be awfully difficult to get to the Super Bowl without having a QB who can match this.

Tagovailoa looked like that guy in November, but he didn't once December arrived and the Dolphins schedule stiffened.

And, sure, there were issues that went beyond the quarterback in those games, just like having that ridiculous speed outside played a big role in Tagovailoa's overall passer rating.

The reality is that whenever the topic of the young stud QBs comes up nationally, Tua's name is left out more often than not, and it's not just because of the durability issues.

Ask yourself this simple question (and be honest with yourself): Who would give the Dolphins the best chance to win the Super Bowl in 2023, Tua, Brady or Rodgers?

"They had a good year," former Dolphins executive and legendary coach Bill Parcells said for a story on The 33rd team. "I’m not certain they have stability at the quarterback position. They seem to think they do. Tua Tagovailoa looks good from time to time, but he was hurt in college, and he’s been hurt a couple of times in the pros. I’m not sure they can rely on him."

From this vantage point, there's merit in choosing Tua over Brady or Rodgers because of the long-term aspect of the decision, even if there are no guarantees that Tua can stay healthy or can consistently deliver.

That said, it's going to be awfully painful if Brady or Rodgers goes to another team in 2023 and takes that team to the Super Bowl. And it would be doubly painful if that team happened to be, say, the New York Jets.

The Dolphins had a key decision to make in the 2020 draft with the fifth overall pick and went with Tagovailoa over Herbert. This looks like they're doubling down on that decision.

How it plays out could go a long way toward determining the direction of the franchise over the next several years.

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