The Week 17 Draft and Playoff Possibilities for Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins gained even more clarity after the Week 16 Monday night game

The Miami Dolphins got some definitive answers relating to the playoffs and the draft with the Buffalo Bills' victory against the New England Patriots on Monday night, though a key question remains.

The Dolphins already knew they could clinch a playoff spot with a victory against those same Bills at Buffalo in Week 17 in one of the early Sunday games, but if they get that win they won't find out until  the later games who they will face in the first round of the playoffs.

We do know it would be Tennessee or Indianapolis.

If it's the Titans, it would represent a matchup against former Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill. If it's the Colts, it would be a game against the team the Dolphins beat the last time they won a playoff game (in 2000).

A victory against the Bills would give Miami the fifth seed and therefore match them against the fourth seed, which will be the AFC South winner. That's because Buffalo clinched at least the third seed after their victory against New England moved the Bills to 12-3.

Indianapolis and Tennessee, who are tied atop the AFC South at 10-5, both are playing 4:25 p.m. games Sunday.

The Colts are playing at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who already are assured of the first overall pick in the 2021 draft, and are 14-point favorites, according to the opening odds from BetOnline.ag.

Tennessee is a 7-point favorite at Houston in a game that also has major draft implications for Miami.

Because of New England's loss Monday night, Houston mathematically cannot finish with a higher opponent combined winning percentage than the Atlanta Falcons, the other team tied for third-worst record in the NFL at 4-10.

That means that regardless of what happens around the NFL on Sunday, Houston will get the third overall pick with a loss against Tennessee — and that pick, of course, belongs to the Dolphins as the result of the Laremy Tunsil trade.

If Houston upsets Tennessee, that Texans first-round pick could fall as low as ninth.

So Dolphins fans might be left to root for Tennessee to defeat Houston for the sake of a higher first-round pick even though the Titans might represent a tougher first-round matchup because of Derrick Henry.

The other key games for the Dolphins — and this applies only if they lose at Buffalo — will be the Baltimore-Cincinnati and Pittsburgh-Cleveland matchups, which also will be early games Sunday.

Remember that the Dolphins will need the Ravens, Browns or Colts to lose to make  the playoffs if they lose at Buffalo on Sunday.

In the event of a Dolphins loss and Baltimore and Cleveland wins in the 1 p.m. games, then Miami would be left to root for Jacksonville to upset Indianapolis. While the point spread suggests that's not happening, let's not forget that the Jaguars' only victory of the season came against those same Colts — 27-20 at Jacksonville — although that happened all the way back in Week 1.

If they make the playoffs despite losing at Buffalo, the Dolphins will be the sixth or seventh seed unless the Ravens, Browns and Colts all lose. That clearly is highly unlikely.

🚨 Week 17 playoff scenarios 🚨

There are 5 games with AFC playoff seeding implications, which amounts to 32 possible combinations of results (excludes ties) pic.twitter.com/ZVzltqI4Pg

— NFL Research (@NFLPlus) December 30, 2020

The two wild cards involved in the equation Sunday are the Bills and Steelers, who are tied at 12-3 for second place in the AFC standings. Buffalo will clinch the second seed if the teams end up with the same record.

The question is whether going for the second seed is more important to either team than sitting out key players.

In the case of the Steelers, the feeling  all along was that they would opt for the latter, which would explain Cleveland opening as a 7-point favorite at home even though the Steelers have the better record and beat them 38-7 in October.

That suspicion was confirmed Tuesday when head coach Mike Tomlin said that Mason Rudolph, and not Ben Roethlisberger, would start at quarterback against the Browns. Tomlin also hinted that other front-line players could get a rest.

Coach Tomlin said they're hoping to "air mail" some others players to the post season besides Ben, but isn't committing to who yet due to injuries.

— Missi Matthews (@missi_matthews) December 29, 2020

It's not as clear-cut for the Bills, though watching safety Jordan Poyer (head) and wide receiver Cole Beasley (leg) leave the Monday night game with injuries could influence their decision.

Head coach Sean McDermott was asked about his plans for the game against Miami after the Bills completed their first sweep of the Patriots since 1999 with a 38-9 rout.

"I'm not ready to answer it yet because I've got to talk with Brandon (GM Brandon Beane) and we'll put our heads together and do the right thing by our team," McDermott said. "Every team is different and these are all, obviously, tough decisions."

McDermott has maintained that position all week, including Thursday morning when he fielded some questions from Dolphins beat writers.

The difference between the second or third seed for the Bills and Steelers is the opportunity to play at home in the second round in the event both teams win their first-round playoff games.

The Bills were in a similar situation last year when they went into their Week 17 game against the New York Jets having locked up the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs. Quarterback Josh Allen and several key defensive players played only one or two series and the Bills went on to lose 13-6.