Kelly: Stop Believing Tua Will Make $50 Million a Season

There isn't a quarterback in the NFL actually pulling in $50 million a season, so don't believing the fictitious numbers being reported about these quarterback deals

Let me tell you the dirtiest secret about the NFL.

Most of the contract figures that get reported are fake as hell.

The total value of the deal is often bogus. The years reported on extensions are usually fraudulent, and the average salary per year is typically exaggerated.

That’s why I’ve consistently told everyone who will listen to only count the guaranteed money on NFL contracts because that’s what determines a contract’s true value. And usually, unless that deal heavily favors the team, the player is often released once the guaranteed money has concluded.

And sometimes teams don't even wait for the guaranteed money to conclude. Ask Russell Wilson, who the Denver Broncos recently made unemployed, about that one.

Take Tyreek Hill’s $30 million a year contract for example. That deal the Dolphins gave their All-Pro receiver two years ago, and likely will have to adjust this offseason to create much-needed cap space, doesn’t pay Hill more than $24 million a season until the final year of the deal (2026), which is when he’s due a balloon payment of $45 million, which bumps up his average salary drastically.

Hill will NEVER see that $45 million payday, but the average salary boosts his ego, and makes his agent look good. That's how business gets done in the NFL.

And keep in mind we’re talking about one of the NFL’s marquee players, a talent who is on a Hall of Fame trajectory.

Is $50 million really the going rate for a QB?

I bring this up to address these reported rumors, speculation that the Dolphins will sign quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a $50 million a year contract this offseason, which would put him in the company of his peers who recently received multi-year extensions.

Problem is, most of those quarterbacks — Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson — aren’t really making $50 million a season.

For instance, Cincinnati gave Burrow a seven-year, $275 million deal that guaranteed him $146.5 million.

Burrow happens to be the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL, which makes him the league’s highest-paid player. But when you comb through the details of the contract Burrow will earn $47.8 million a season in the first three years, which is when the guaranteed money concludes.

And more importantly, Burrow will earn $42.1 million a season over the first four years of the deal. By the time he gets to the 2027 season, his deal likely will be restructured, adjusted to create more cap space if he’s still an elite quarterback.

That’s the way of business for quarterbacks.

You’ll see that practice get exercised with Patrick Mahomes, who the Chiefs signed to a 10-year, $450 million deal in 2000. The Super Bowl champs will adjust Mahomes' contract for cap space this offseason as they push for a third straight title.

Dallas' Dak Prescott will have his deal that was slated to pay him $34 million in 2024 extended because the last two years of his deal are void years, which means he becomes a free agent after this season if his contract isn’t addressed.

Here's what elite quarterbacks really earn

Unless his contract gets adjusted, Mahomes will earn $45.7 million from his base salary, roster and workout bonuses this season. And that’s a three-time Super Bowl champion, a two-time MVP, and the face of the NFL.

Those quarterback deals, and possibly the one for Kirk Cousins, who is plotting his escape from Minnesota, likely will reset the quarterback market in the coming weeks.

The Dolphins would be wise to get a deal done with Tagovailoa before those contracts raise the quarterback salary bar even more.

But this myth that Tagovailoa will be making $50 million a season must end because it’s more fiction than fact, and the contracts of the NFL's upper-echelon passers prove this.

Herbert, who the Chargers signed to a seven-year, $300 million deal, will average $44.5 million a season for the first three years of the deal (which addresses the guaranteed money). But Herbert’s deal averages out at $38.7 million a season for the first five years.

Jackson signed a five-year, $260 million deal with the Ravens last offseason, and received a $72.5 million signing bonus. His contract averages out to $39.6 million a season for the first three years if he doesn’t trigger an additional $11.5 million in performance bonuses, which are likely considering he was just named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player for the second time.

Here’s my point: If Mahomes, Burrow, Jackson, Herbert and Hurts aren’t really making $50 million a season, stop believing that Tagovailoa will.

Without the tag Christian Wilkins will become one of the NFL's hottest free agent targets