Tua MVP Favorite Again ... And His Path to the Award
After passing for three touchdowns in yet another dominant offensive performance by the Miami Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa is back as the betting favorite for the NFL MVP award.
Tagovailoa's odds, per BetOnline, went from 5-to-1 to 3-1, allowing to jump over Patrick Mahomes, whose odds remained at 4-1 following the Kansas City Chiefs' 19-8 victory against the Denver Broncos in the Week 6 Thursday night game.
This is a familiar spot for Tua, who went from ninth-favorite to the top spot following his brilliant Week 1 performance against the L.A. Chargers and stayed as the favorite after Week 2 and Week 3.
After falling into a tie with Mahomes after the Week 4 loss at Buffalo, Tua dropped to second after the victory against the New York Giants in Week 5.
After Tua and Mahomes, the next five betting favorites, per BetOnline, are Bills QB Josh Allen at 8-1, 49ers QB Brock Purdy at 9-1, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson at 9-1, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts at 10-1, and 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey at 14-1.
The only other non-QBs who even have BetOnline odds are Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (50-1), Cowboys LB Micah Parsons (150-1) and Steelers LB T.J. Watt (150-1).
THE RECENT NFL MVP TREND
That Tua is the betting favorite at this time makes perfect sense considering he's the quarterback of an offense that's putting up ridiculous, history-making numbers.
And, perhaps most importantly, those numbers have helped the Dolphins put together a 5-1 start, which has them tied with four other teams for best record in the NFL.
And this is where we bring up the key stat when it comes to the NFL MVP Award: The last six winners have been quarterbacks on a team that finished as the No. 1 seed in its conference.
2017 — Tom Brady, New England
2018 — Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City
2019 — Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
2020 — Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
2021 — Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
2022 — Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City
Taking the stat further, the four winners before that also all were quarterbacks and their team either ended up as a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
The last time a non-quarterback was named NFL MVP also was the last time the MVP didn't play for a top 2 seed, and that was 2012 when the winner was Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson. And he got the award after rushing for 2,097 yards, only 8 shy of the NFL record set by Eric Dickerson in 1984.
But, again, the last 10 MVPs all have been quarterbacks and eight of them played for a No. 1 seed, with the other two playing for a No. 2 seed (Aaron Rodgers in 2014, Matt Ryan in 2016).
TUA'S PATH TO MVP
So, based on this recent history, Tua's prospects for being named NFL MVP might come down to whether the Dolphins can earn the top seed in the AFC.
And that, of course, brings us to the Nov. 5 game against the Chiefs in Germany.
The Dolphins and Chiefs are the only two teams in the AFC with a 5-1 record and whoever wins that game then will get the edge when it comes to a potential tiebreaker for playoff seeding purposes.
So that matchup, right or wrong, will have major MVP implications as well as playoff ramifications for the teams involved.
Then again, if Tua ends up with record-setting numbers — he's on pace for 5,315 passing yards, which would be the fourth-highest total ever — that might be too much for voters to ignore.
But it's more likely to come down to the quarterback of the top seed in the AFC or NFC.
That obviously would be even more reason to root for the Dolphins to get that No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, something they haven't done since 1984.
Oh, the MVP that season was Dan Marino.
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