Recent History Says It's (Pretty Much) Now or Never for Tua

The Miami Dolphins have set the stage for Tua Tagovailoa to take a big step in his third season, and now it's up to him to take advantage

Tyreek Hill has been full of compliments toward Tua Tagovailoa since he joined the Miami Dolphins in March, but he also threw in a dose of reality during one of his recent podcasts.

“You know, in the NFL they only give you like two or three years to be a successful quarterback, especially if you’re a first-round draft pick,” Hill said on a recent episode of "It Needed To Be Said." “And if you don’t succeed after those years, then it’s kick rocks, man. So, basically, they’re going to put Tua into that. So this is basically his last year, man, just to show people what he’s got.”

As we addressed earlier in the offseason, Hill isn't wrong.

The Dolphins likely will have a decision to make after the 2022 season whether to move forward with Tagovailoa as their starting quarterback or look in a different direction.

And one of the reasons is, quite simply, if a quarterback these days hasn't shown to be elite in his first three seasons, it's very likely he'll never be elite (and we can argue over the definition of "elite" all day, but from this end it means a quarterback who can elevate his team beyond the pieces around him).

The hope is that Tagovailoa will become that kind of quarterback for the Dolphins, and the organization has done everything in its power to make it happen, from the hiring of offensive mastermind Mike McDaniel as head coach to the additions of Hill and four-time Pro Bowl tackle Terron Armstead.

But there's also no guarantee it's going to happen and it certainly didn't happen in Tagovailoa's first two seasons, which is why the Dolphins still have a long-term question mark at quarterback.

TUA AND RECENT NFL HISTORY

While Pro Bowl selections certainly aren't the end-all, be-all when it comes to juding performance — just start with the fact that Mac Jones was selected last year and Joe Burrow wasn't — they do represent a quick and easy way to measure success.

And when it comes to the Pro Bowl, if you're a first-round pick, recent history suggests that if you don't get selected within your first three seasons, you won't ever get selected.

Using 2010 as a starting point — yes, it's arbitrary, but the game has changed and quarterbacks tend to make a more immediate impact these days — there have been 37 quarterbacks selected in the first round.

Excluding those selected from 2020 on (because they haven't played three full seasons yet), that number goes to 26.

Of those 28 quarterbacks taken in the first round from 2010-19, 16 failed to make the Pro Bowl in any of their first three seasons and 15 of them still are looking for that first Pro Bowl appearance or are out of the NFL entirely.

That list consists of Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden, E.J. Manuel, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Marcus Mariota, Paxton Lynch, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and Daniel Jones.

On the flip side, look at the undisputed (or at least should be undisputed) elite quarterbacks around the NFL and how quickly they earned that first Pro Bowl invitation.

Patrick Mahomes made his first Pro Bowl in his first season as a starter, as did Tom Brady and Russell Wilson; Aaron Rodgers made his first Pro Bowl in his second season as a starter, as did Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson; Josh Allen made his first Pro Bowl in his third season.

By any measure, Burrow was a Pro Bowl quarterback in his second season in 2021, the only thing missing being the actual sense to select him to the game.

THE TANNEHILL TEST

Going back to the rundown of QBs selected in the first round between 2010-19, the one exception to the rule of no Pro Bowl in the first three seasons meaning no Pro Bowl ever was, of course, the Dolphins' top pick in the 2012 draft — Ryan Tannehill.

Tannehill made his first and only Pro Bowl in 2019 in his first season with the Tennessee Titans and his seventh in the NFL (not counting 2017 when he spent the whole year on IR).

But Tannehill never made the Pro Bowl in his six full seasons with Miami as the Dolphins kept hoping he would be able to take that step forward before finally deciding to move on without him.

But even with that one Pro Bowl, there aren't many analysts who ever considered Tannehill to be elite, and it's no stretch to suggest that Tennessee would have moved on from him as well this offseason had it not been for the nasty $38.6 million of dead cap space (according to overthecap.com) it would incur by doing so.

THE BOTTOM LINE FOR TUA

To be sure, there are exceptions to every rule, such as Drew Brees being able to succeed in the NFL as a shorter quarterback without much running ability, but the law of averages also is pretty clear here.

Sure, there were circumstances for Tagovailoa in his first two seasons that were less than ideal, but at some point he's going to have to deliver.

And that time, based on recent NFL history, has arrived.