Tua and the Belichick Challenge

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa likely will see some new wrinkles when he faces the New England Patriots defense

Tua Tagovailoa's evolution as an NFL quarterback will take another step when he goes up against the New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday.

Tagovailoa will be going up against the defense of Bill Belichick, whose success against rookie quarterbacks is well documented.

We broke it down further and analyzed Belichick's track record against rookie first-round picks specifically, and the numbers are revealing.

New England has won its last 11 games against teams starting a rookie first-round pick at quarterback, though the Patriots' overall success over the past 20 years certainly makes that almost predictable.

But it's how the New England defense has dominated those rookie QBs that jumps out.

The latest example, of course, came two Sundays ago when the Patriots shut out the Los Angeles Chargers and 2020 sixth overall pick Justin Herbert by the score of 45-0.

Forget about the 45 points. Instead, look at Herbert's passer rating of 43.7 rating with his two interceptions. Remember how bad the Dolphins made Herbert look on Nov. 15? His passer rating that day was 86.3.

Belichick's defense, much like what the Dolphins do, is well known for its disguises and various looks, all in the name of creating confusion for the offense.

So, yes, Tagovailoa will be seeing something new Sunday.

"I don't think there's any way he's seen everything he's going to see," head coach Brian Flores said Wednesday. "It's so young in his career. Look, it's going to be a big challenge not only for Tua but our entire offense."

Of course, it was veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick who was at quarterback when the Dolphins opened the season at Gillette Stadium and their offense was stymied in a 21-11 loss.

But in 2012, the Dolphins had another rookie first-round pick start at quarterback against New England, with Ryan Tannehill doing it not once but twice.

In those two games, Tannehill failed to throw a touchdown pass and the Patriots won both games, 23-16 in Miami and 28-0 in New England.

Here's another telling stat on Belichick's success against rookie first-round picks starting at quarterback: During his 11-game streak, only one quarterback has thrown more touchdown passes than interceptions in a game.

The answer is probably not one you would expect: E.J. Manuel of the Buffalo Bills in 2013.

And the last time New England lost against a team starting a rookie first-round pick at quarterback? Week 2 of the 2009 season against the New York Jets. That quarterback: Mark Sanchez.

Here's the rundown of New England's 11-game winning streak against teams starting a rookie first-round pick at quarterback:

2020 — 45-0 vs. LAC, Justin Herbert, 0 TD, 2 INT, 43.7 rating

2019 — 35-14 vs. NYG, Daniel Jones, 1 TD, 3 INT, 35.2 rating

2018 — 24-12 vs. BUF, Josh Allen, 1 TD, 2 INT, 52.6 rating

2018 — 38-3 vs. NYJ, Sam Darnold, 0 TD, 0 INT, 74.6 rating

2017 — 36-33 vs. HOU, Deshaun Watson, 2 TD, 2 INT, 90.6 rating

2016 — 26-10 vs. LAR, Jared Goff, 1 TD, 2 INT, 43.9 rating

2013 — 23-21 vs. BUF, E.J. Manuel, 2 TD, 0 INT, 105.5 rating

2012 — 59-24 vs. IND, Andrew Luck, 2 TD, 3 INT, 63.2 rating

2012 — 23-16 vs. MIA, Ryan Tannehill, 0 TD, 0 INT, 66.2 rating

2012 — 28-0 vs. MIA, Ryan Tannehill, 0 TD, 1 INT, 65.8 rating

2009 — 31-14 vs. NYJ, Mark Sanchez, 1 TD, 4 INT, 37.1 rating