Ranking the Pending Dolphins Free Agents ... With Their Likelihood of Being Back

Emmanuel Ogbah and Will Fuller V top the list of Miami Dolphins players scheduled to become unrestricted free agents

We're now only four days away from the start of the 2022 NFL league year and only two days removed from the legal tampering period when teams can start having discussions with pending free agents from other teams.

It's also been three weeks since we offered our breakdown of the Dolphins' pending free agents along with the likelihood of their return, and it's time to update with what has happened and what we've learned since then.

The Dolphins still have 26 players headed for free agency March 16, including 20 UFAs (unrestricted free agents) and six RFAs (restricted).

We break down them here in order of significance, along with our best guess as to the likelihood they'll stay with the Dolphins.

Pending Dolphins Unrestricted Free Agents

DE EMMANUEL OGBAH — Ogbah proved a great free agent signing two offseasons ago and it's safe to suggest the Dolphins right now would have wished they had signed him to a longer term. With Josh Boyer back as a DC and several defensive assistants also back, the Dolphins are going to be looking to run the same defense and they need Ogbah to make it work at full efficiency. This should be the top priority, but Ogbah appears ready to hit the open market first. Outlook: Return iffy

TE MIKE GESICKI — Gesicki has emerged as a very good receiving tight end since arriving as a second-round pick in 2018, and the Dolphins clearly recognize that because they placed the franchise tag on him despite the one-dimensional nature of his game. The only way at this point that Gesicki won't be back in 2022 if is the Dolphins end up trading him. Outlook: Return almost certain

WR WILL FULLER V — The Dolphins' mystery man of 2021, Fuller ended up playing only two games and catching only four passes before he landed on injured reserve with a finger injury. That came, of course, after he missed the opener while finishing serving his NFL suspension from the previous season and after he missed the home opener against Buffalo in Week 2 after leaving the team to deal with a personal matter. Fuller's status became a regular topic during then-head coach Brian Flores' media sessions with rumblings that there might have been issues at play to explain Fuller's absence beyond the finger injury. Flores said in late December that Fuller has suffered "setbacks" in his recovery and was done for the season and then Fuller posted a pictured of himself on Instagram showing what appeared to be a cast on his left hand, the implication being that he had just had surgery. In all, the Dolphins didn't get much return on their $10 million one-year investment on Fuller. Outlook: Return doubtful

DB JASON McCOURTY — McCourty was brought in last offseason to provide versatility, leadership and experience in the secondary, and he ended up being used at safety after playing most of his career at cornerback. But with the emergence of rookie Jevon Holland and second-year player Brandon Jones, McCourty found himself playing a backup role until he landed on injured reserve with a foot injury that cut short his season. McCourty, who will turn 36 in August, might have a tough time finding himself a team in the event he wants to continue playing. Outlook: Return doubtful

RB DUKE JOHNSON — Yes, we rank Johnson third on our list despite the fact he played less than half the 2021 season. after being signed to the practice squad in October. Johnson had the Dolphins' two 100-yard rushing performances of the season despite his limited action. In doing so, Johnson showed the ability to maximize the blocking up front that was missing from the other running backs. Johnson's running style makes him a good fit for the 49ers-style scheme we're likely to see in Miami in 2022. Outlook: Return possible

WR MACK HOLLINS — Perhaps the most colorful player on the roster, Hollins is more than just a big personality, though. Hollins is a very good special teams player, he was elected as one of the team captains last season and he made the most of his opportunities at wide receiver with four touchdowns on only 14 receptions, including his 65-yard score against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Outlook: Return likely

TE DURHAM SMYTHE — One of the five tight ends on the active roster in 2021, Smythe has established himself as a very dependable pass catcher who also can contribute as a blocker and on special teams. Like Gesicki, he set career highs in 2021 in both catches and receiving yards. Because he's not a big-play receiver, he likely won't command top dollar on the free agent market, but he's useful player to have. Outlook: Return likely

LB ELANDON ROBERTS — Roberts played the past two seasons after signing one-year contracts, which means he's slated to be a free agent for a third consecutive offseason. Roberts is a serviceable inside linebacker who's better against the run than in coverage (his 85-yard pick-six against the Raiders aside), but it's likely the Dolphins would want an upgrade at this position. Outlook: Return 50-50.

QB JACOBY BRISSETT — Brissett was seen as a good fit as a backup last year because he wasn't a threat to Tua Tagovailoa, but he became a bad fit because his inability to get rid of the ball quickly in the pocket was a problem working behind an offensive line that struggled for a good part of the season. Brissett did have his moments in 2021, most notably in the overtime loss at Las Vegas, but his overall performance wasn't particularly impressive. Having said all that, he still fits what the Dolphins should want in a backup quarterback, provided the offensive line is improved. Outlook: Return 50-50.

RB MALCOLM BROWN — For a second consecutive year, the Dolphins used free agency to bring in a running back they hoped would be able to convert short-yardage situations, but it didn't work out as planned again. While Brown's season with the Dolphins wasn't nearly as forgettable as that of Jordan Howard in 2020, Brown really didn't make much of an impact. He did have a 24-yard touchdown run in the Week 3 game at Las Vegas, but he almost came up short too often in short-yardage situations, none bigger than his failed fourth-and-1 run against Jacksonville in London that preceded the Jaguars' game-winning field goal on the last play of the game. Outlook: Return doubtful

WR ISAIAH FORD — The man who keeps coming back. We've lost track by now of how often Ford has been re-signed after being let go, but there's a reason the Dolphins always bring him back — he knows the offense, he knows his role and he's dependable. But he's also not a difference-maker, which is why he likely won't be re-signed until late in the offseason, if all. Outlook: Return 50-50

RB PHILLIP LINDSAY — The two-time 1,000-yard rusher simply wasn't able to make much of an impact after joining the Dolphins following his release from Houston, but a lot of that had to do with the offensive line. One thing that Lindsay has in his favor is the fact he's well versed in the West Coast offense and his style is conducive to that scheme. Outlook: Return not very likely

LB DUKE RILEY — Riley was a core member of the special teams all season but also started three games at linebacker. Riley joined the Dolphins on a one-year contract last offseason, but has enough to offer as a quality backup and special teams player to bring back. Outlook: Possible

WR ALBERT WILSON — Wilson was back at a reduced salary after opting out in 2020 and he never was able to really carve himself a role last year, in part because so many of the short passes went to rookie Jaylen Waddle. Wilson made a big impression in his first season in Miami before going down with a hip injury, but it sure looks now as though it might be time for a change of scenery. Outlook: Return not likely

LB BRENNAN SCARLETT — Like Riley, Scarlett was signed to a one-year contract last year to provide depth at linebacker and help on special teams, but he made very little impact for the Dolphins — this after showing great pass-rushing potential in training camp and the preseason. Outlook: Return not likely

CB JUSTIN COLEMAN — Signed to a one-year deal after he was released by Detroit,  Coleman ended up having a pretty good season after a slow start with a 63.4 opponent passer rating when targeted, according to Pro Football Reference, which was the best of any defensive back on the team. However, Coleman played only 35 percent of the defensive snaps and that represented his lowest percentage since 2016 when he was with New England. He might be inclined to look for an opportunity elsewhere to get more playing time. Outlook: Return less than 50-50

LB VINCE BIEGEL — Biegel completed his long road back from his 2020 training camp injury when he rejoined the active roster last season after being waived-injured in camp and then re-signed to the practice squad. Biegel appeared in five games in a backup capacity but practically all of his snaps came on special teams. Coaches always have spoken positively about Biegel's work ethic and energy, so he may be brought back for another look, though he wouldn't be considered a priority re-signing. Outlook: Return 50-50

P MICHAEL PALARDY — After replacing fellow left-footed punter Matt Haack, Palardy has a pretty uneven season for the Dolphins. The highs included winning AFC Special Teams Player of the Week honors and produced one of the best ratios of punts inside the 20 against touchbacks. But Palardy also had some rough games, including the Week 17 loss at Tennessee when his punting helped the Titans win the field position battle until they scored on the fifth possession of the game. Outlook: Return less than 50-50

OL GREG MANCZ — Acquired in a trade with the Baltimore Ravens in late August to provide depth on the offensive line, Mancz ended up starting four games during Michael Deiter's absence. Mancz has position flexibility and experience, and is one of those players who's not a priority re-signing but could be back if he doesn't find a new team in free agency. Outlook: Return 50-50

DT JOHN JENKINS — The veteran defensive tackle became a forgotten man after signing as a free agent last offseason. He did start two games when Raekwon Davis was sidelined with a knee injury, but ended up appearing in only seven game and was inactive for eight of the last 11. Outlook: Return not likely

Pending Dolphins RFAs

CB NIK NEEDHAM — Needham has become a valuable member of the secondary after coming off the practice squad as a rookie free agent in 2019 and the Dolphins clearly see his value, which is why they extended him a second-round tender, giving them the right to match any offer sheet he might receive or get a second-round pick as compensation if they don't. This basically means that Needham isn't going anywhere this offseason.Outlook: Practically certain

WR PRESTON WILLIAMS — To say this was a disappointing season for Williams would be putting it mildly. After having his previous two campaigns ended by season-ending injuries, Williams never could get going in 2021. He finished with only six receptions and that on 16 targets — his catch percentage of 37.5 would have ranked last in the NFL had he had enough receptions to qualify. Williams also was left behind for the game in Buffalo in Week 8 for a violation of team rules and ended up being inactive for seven games. This is a classic example where a change of scenery probably is best for both sides. Outlook: Return doubtful

RB PATRICK LAIRD — Laird didn't make the active roster coming out of camp, but stuck around on the practice squad until he was activated. He did what he's always done for the Dolphins since arriving as a rookie free agent in 2019, which is to say a little bit of running, a little bit of receiving, a little bit of blocking and some special teams work. Because he's not a difference-maker, it's not likely the Dolphins will extend a qualifying offer to keep Laird but he's also reliable enough that they very well might bring him back. Outlook: Return 50-50

LB SAM EGUAVOEN — The former CFL player had a memorable four-sack performance in the preseason, but that didn't translate into the regular season as his role again consisted mostly of playing on special teams. Eguavoen played all 17 games, but had significant snaps on defense in only two of them — the opener at New England and the Week 7 game against the Atlanta Falcons. Logic says the Dolphins won't be making a tender offer but would consider bringing him back. Outlook: Return 50-50

CB JAMAL PERRY — The former Jomal Wiltz spent most of the season on the practice squad, but just after being promoted to the active roster he ended up tearing an ACL. He's been with the Dolphins since 2019 and has value as a special teams player, but certainly doesn't look like somebody to whom the Dolphins would extend a qualifying offer. Outlook: Return 50-50

S SHELDRICK REDWINE — The former University of Miami standout got to live out a dream when the Dolphins signed him to their practice squad, but he blew his first chance when he joined Williams in being left behind for the Buffalo game because of a violation of team rules. Redwine got another chance and ended up appearing in four games, though his playing time was pretty much limited to special teams. It would be surprising to see the Dolphins extending a qualifying offer here, though it's not completely out of the question he could be back. Outlook: Return possible