Dolphins Running Game Highlights and Lowlights

The Miami Dolphins' running game has been a story of two extremes in 2023

The 2023 season continues to be a tale of two extremes for the Miami Dolphins running game.

A quick glance at team and individual statistics shows the makings of one of the greatest rushing seasons in team history, with Raheem Mostert front and center.

But a deeper dive shows continued issues in short-yardage situations, issues the team would do well to fix sooner rather than later.

So let's break down this 2023 Dolphins running game with the key stats and what they tell us.

MOSTERT'S MAGICAL SEASON

Because of the Tua-Tyreek connections and big plays, Mostert has flown a bit under the radar this season when he most definitely shouldn't be.

In the 28-27 loss against the Tennessee Titans, Mostert tied two significant team records with his two rushing touchdowns: most overall touchdowns in a season with 18 (tied record set by Mark Clayton in 1984), most rushing touchdowns in a season with 16 (tied record set by Ricky Williams in 2002).

Mostert is second in the NFL in rushing yards with 924, needing only 76 for the first 1,000-yard season of his career and the first 1,000-yard rushing season for a Dolphins back since 2016 when Jay Ajayi finished with 1,272.

DOLPHINS AMONG LEAGUE LEADERS

The combination of Mostert and rookie sensation De'Von Achane, behind a much-improved but now battered offensive line and thanks to some creative play-calling and scheming, has helped the Dolphins stay near the top of the NFL rushing stats all season.

The Dolphins currently stand second in the NFL in rushing yards per game at 144.5 and they're at the top in rushing yards per attempt at 5.26. That 5.26 is 0.35 higher than second-place Baltimore, and it's the biggest gap between two spots in the entire NFL rushing rankings.

Of course, rushing for 350 yards with an 8.1 average in that historic 70-point outburst in the Week 3 home opener against the Denver Broncos helped, but it's not like it's the reason the Dolphins rank where they rank. Playing this exercise, take away that game, and the Dolphins still would be second in the NFL with a then-average of 4.87 yards per carry and they would be eighth in rushing yards per game at 127.3 — not exactly shabby.

And the running game has continued to produce good numbers even with that rash of injuries that have hit and caused the Dolphins to finish the Tennessee game with only one of their opening-day starters, right tackle Austin Jackson.

Even behind that makeshift offensive line, which lost center Connor Williams on the team's sixth offensive play of the game, the Dolphins rushed for 158 yards Monday night with a healthy 5.1 average.

In their past three games, including the Black Friday victory against the Jets and the Week 14 30-point victory at Washington, the Dolphins have averaged 149.3 rushing yards, higher than their season average.

And while the yardage totals against the Jets (167) and Washington (123) maybe were boosted by the Dolphins taking advantage of worn-down defenses in games where the outcome wasn't in doubt in the second half, the production against Tennessee was legit.

SAME RUNNING GAME PROBLEMS PERSIST

Now that we've gone through all the good things the Dolphins have done in the running game, we must address the bad things.

Actually, it's pretty much one bad thing, and that's the short-yardage game.

No matter how efficient, explosive or effervescent the Dolphins offense has been at different times in 2023, gaining those tough yards on third-and-short or fourth-and-short has been a chore.

The numbers aren't pretty.

Based on a research project looking at every team's stats, the Dolphins have a 50 percent success rate (4-for-8) when they run the ball on third-and-1 and that's tied for second-worst in the NFL with the Las Vegas Raiders. Only the New York Jets, at 37.5 percent, have been worse.

And here's the weird part: That mediocre success rate actually is better than the Dolphins have done when they're thrown the ball on third-and-1, where they're only 2-for-8.

Doing some quick math, adding 4-for-8 and 2-for-8 makes the Dolphins 6-for 16 in third-and-1 situations for a 37.5 percent conversion rate. If that sounds bad, it's because it is.

It's the second-worst in the NFL, ahead only of the (you guessed it) Jets, who are at 35.7 percent (5-for-14).

Then there's the issue of play selection, with Mike McDaniel coming under fire at times for deferring to the pass too often — though, of course, there never are any complaints when the plays succeed.

But there's validity to the premise of overlying on the pass because the Dolphins' rate of running on 50 percent of third-and-1 plays is tied for lowest in the NFL with the Minnesota Vikings.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Buffalo Bills run an NFL-high 94.4 percent of third-and-1 plays, which may or may not have anything to do with their 88.9 conversion rate, which is second in the NFL behind the Tennessee Titans' 92.3. And one could make the argument that this is where having a jumbo-sized quarterback like Josh Allen or a jumbo-sized running back Derrick Henry really can make a difference.

Extending the stats to include third-and-2, fourth-and-1 and fourth-and-2, the Dolphins actually have the worst conversion rate in the NFL at 48.6 (17-for-35), with the Atlanta Falcons next-to-last at 51.4 percent.

And, actually, it's the passing game that's been the biggest issue there.

The Dolphins actually have done fairly well running the ball on third-and-2 (1-for-1), fourth-and-1 (2-for-3) and fourth-and-2 (1-for-1), but not so much in the passing game — along with the third-and-1 problems.

Overall, the Dolphins have gained a first only 9 of 22 times they've passed on third or fourth down with 1 or 2 yards to go. That 40.9 percent success rate is fourth-worst in the NFL, ahead of only the New England Patriots (22.2), Arizona Cardinals (30.8) and Atlanta (40).

The moral of the story there is the Dolphins have been bad in short-yardage situations this season, but they've actually been worse when they've thrown the ball and maybe it's time to give the running game more of a chance in those situations.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE RUNNING GAME

But the question is whether the running game can get better down the stretch, not only in short-yardage plays, but also in close-out situations like the one that surfaced against Tennessee.

The running game failed in that instance, with two runs by Mostert gaining only 4 yards before Tua Tagovailoa scrambled for 4 yards on third-and-6 after a pass play was called.

Against Las Vegas in Week 11, the Dolphins got the ball with 3:04 left, gained a first down on two Mostert runs but then had to punt after two more runs and an incompletion, though the defense clinched the victory in that game.

Improving in that area won't be easy with all the injuries up front, particularly with Williams now on IR, but it might be a must if the Dolphins are to go where they want to go in 2023.

And without more success in those short-yardage and potential game-clinching situations, the running game's impressive overall numbers for this season always will come with a but.

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