The Big Tua Dilemma

Tua Tagovailoa has put up big numbers the past two seasons, but is that enough?

The Miami Dolphins have a major Tua dilemma.

In the past two seasons, Tua Tagovailoa has given the Miami Dolphins their most prolific passer since Dan Marino's Hall of Fame career ended with his retirement in March of 2000.

Tua led the NFL in passer rating in 2022, followed that leading the league in passing yards, succeeded in playing every snap (other than mop-up time) in 2023, and was named the AFC starting Pro Bowl quarterback.

Those are the facts Tua's supporters — Tuanon and beyond — will point to as to why it should be a no-brainer for the Dolphins to sign him to a long-term extension this offseason.

But it says here the Dolphins still absolutely, positively should keep their quarterback options open.

Period. End of story.

GOOD BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH

Tua does have the numbers to back him, starting with the league-leading 4,624 passing yards during the 2023 regular season and the NFL-best 105.5 passer rating of 2022, but exactly where has that gotten the Dolphins?

Yes, they did make the playoffs the past two seasons and had another winning record for the fourth time in Tua's four seasons in the NFL.

But the franchise's playoff drought continues — and, unless you've tuned out the NFL recently, you know it's now the longest active streak in the NFL.

Here's the bigger problem: What over the past two seasons should give the Dolphins or their fans much confidence moving forward that they're ready to be legitimate Super Bowl contenders and not merely a team good enough to make the playoffs but not much more — be the Dallas Cowboys, in other words?

The evidence is pretty convincing.

Over the past two seasons, the Dolphins have a 3-12 record against playoff opponents, including their two playoff losses.

Since victories at Baltimore and against Buffalo in Week 2 and 3 of the 2022 season, that record is 1-12, the one victory coming against the aforementioned Cowboys at Hard Rock Stadium on Christmas Eve.

The Dolphins were 1-6 against playoff opponents in 2023 and were outscored 224-113 in those games, an average of 32-19.

Put in simpler terms, the Dolphins couldn't hang with the big boys.

Of course, this is where we'll point out it's a team game and the losses don't fall all at Tua's feet.

But then, Tua's 32-19 career record as a starter and statistical success the past two seasons under head coach Mike McDaniel also need to be viewed in the same team scope.

SOME TROUBLING STATS

Diving more into Tua's stats, not everything is touchdowns and completions.

The first thing that jumps out is that Tua's 2023 numbers were so dramatically different depending on the quality of the opposition.

Tua torched non-playoff teams to the tune of a 71.7 completion percentage with 22 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 110.7 passer rating.

Against the seven playoff opponents, those numbers changed to 62.8 completion percentage with eight touchdowns, seven picks and an 80.2 passer rating.

And then there's coming through in the clutch.

The Dolphins faced six fourth-quarter comeback situations, and ended up winning only two of those games — in the opener against the Chargers and in that Dallas victory.

But they failed against the Eagles, in the regular season game against the Chiefs, in that painful Tennessee Monday night, and in the battle for the AFC East title against Buffalo in Week 18.

Using one clutch metric, Tua had a 67.8 passer rating in 2023 with the Dolphins trailing and less than four minutes remaining, actually lower than his career average of 68.0 in that category.

In that department, Tua falls short — way short — of the upper-echelon QBs in the AFC, the QBs the Dolphins will have to overcome to reach their goal of making it to the Super Bowl.

Some examples: Lamar Jackson has a career passer rating with his team trailing with less than four minutes left of 118.2. Joe Burrow is at 107.4. Josh Allen is at 98.8. Patrick Mahomes is at 88.8. C.J. Stroud was at 107.9 in his rookie season in 2023.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH TUA

What is Tua's ceiling? Has he reached it yet?

And if he has, should the Dolphins be content with that or look for more, now or in the future?

And this isn't about replacing Tua for the sake of replacing Tua, it's about evaluating how far this team can go as presently constructed.

When GM Chris Grier said this week referring to Tua that "the goal is to have him here long term playing at a high level," that was all fine and dandy. But what is the Dolphins' definition of a high level?

Did Tua play at a high level in 2023? The fact he was in the MVP conversation for a good portion of the season certainly would suggest he did. But he did not play at a high level against big-time opponents, and that's also undeniable.

And the Dolphins' moves of the past few offseasons certainly suggest they're looking not for good, but for great, otherwise what was the point of giving up draft capital and spending big money on players like Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead and Jalen Ramsey, to name three?

TUA WOULDN'T BE THE FIRST

Before anyone starts screaming about the idea of not locking up Tua to a long-term contract being blasphemous, there is precedent.

How about this former quarterback who produced a 35-17 record (.673 winning percentage) in his first four seasons with his team before the decision was made he wasn't good enough and the team decided to trade a second-round pick to acquire another quarterback.

That quarterback with the 35-17 record was Jay Fiedler and the team was the Dolphins, and the QB acquired in the trade for a second-round pick was A.J. Feeley.

If the argument is that Fiedler never put up good passing numbers, OK, let's provide more recent examples.

And this is where the names Alex Smith and Jimmy Garoppolo — and we could add Jared Goff — come in.

The Kansas City Chiefs had a 41-20 record (.672) in Smith's first four seasons with the team, during which time he was named to the Pro Bowl twice. That didn't stop the Chiefs from drafting Mahomes in 2017.

Garoppolo was even more successful in San Francisco with a winning percentage of .691 and two seasons with a passer rating higher than 100 before the 49ers decided to move on.

THE BOTTOM LINE

So what to do for the Dolphins?

There are three options on the table, and that's signing Tua to an extension, having him play on the fifth-year option or trading him if they can find a taker and land somebody else (Kirk Cousins?) to take over the offense.

The decision should boil down to how the Dolphins view Tua and whether they think they can win big with him and whether he can take another step forward or the last two seasons were as good as it's going to get.

But the Dolphins have the luxury of not having to make that move without gathering even more evidence and giving Tua another year to show he can go to that next level, and that's with having him play on the fifth-year option.

The Dolphins went that route with Christian Wilkins this season after failing to reach agreement on a long-term contract, so why not do it again?

One argument for extending Tua would be to lower his cap number of $23 million for 2024 — and the Dolphins will need to create space — but getting the QB position right for the long term is more important.

In fact, there's nothing more important.

The Dolphins absolutely have to get it right and getting it right means being able to compete with the big boys and not merely being content with making the playoffs, which is where they are right now with Tua as their quarterback. 

Can he take them beyond that level? We flat-out don't know the answer to that.

And that is why the Dolphins need to keep their QB options open.

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