Tua Tagovailoa Becomes Front-Runner for NFL MVP Honors

Numerous betting sites have Tua Tagovailoa favored for the NFL MVP award following his AFC Player of the Week Performance against the Chargers

Tua Tagovailoa spent roughly all of last November in the MVP conversation, then a rough patch in December and his second concussion of the season sideswiped his rise to NFL nobility.

It appears the Miami Dolphins’ fourth-year starter is picking up where he left off courtesy of his AFC Offensive Player of the Week performance in the 36-34 victory against the Los Angeles Chargers, a game where the former University of Alabama standout threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns.

According to many of the betting websites, Tagovailoa, who led the NFL with a 105.5 passer rating last season, has matching odds with Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes for the NFL’s MVP award.

Fanduel has Tagovailoa and Mahomes at +650, which means if someone bet $100 they would walk away with $650 if he earned the league’s top individual honor.

Tua not overreacting to his hot start

“Everyone overreacts on everything. (That’s) my personal opinion. Take that for what it’s worth. You’re either going to win the Super Bowl after you win your first game or you’re the worst team ever, and everything that comes with that,” Tagovailoa said, referring to the hype he and the Dolphins are receiving after the season-opening win. “That’s one of the reasons I don’t pay too much attention to the outside noise. But, yeah, to me, that’s all it is. Like we still got to go on the road and we got 16 more games to play against 16 really, really good teams.”

Tagovailoa would have to stay healthy for the majority of the 2023 season and lead the Dolphins to the postseason to gain serious traction for the league’s top honor. And while all those things are possible, the fact the professional betting sites have lowered his odds hints that gamblers are starting to believe, and bet on Tagovailoa.

Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts have +1000 odds to win the MVP award, and Buffalo’s Josh Allen’s at +1200.

Some sites have Tua rated ahead of Mahomes

BetOnline lists Tagovailoa as the favorite to win MVP honors with 5-to-1 odds, putting him ahead of Hurts (6-to-1) and Mahomes (8-to-1). A week ago his odds were 25-to-1, and back in February, before free agency and the NFL draft, his odds of becoming MVP were 14-to-1.

“From last year he’s played a lot of really good games. He is playing at a very high level,” said quarterback coach Darrell Bevell, who has served as either quarterback coach or offensive coordinator for Brett Favre, Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence. “He’s playing within the system and [taking advantage] of second chance opportunities. He’s just really taken to all the training, all the timing, all the things we’ve asked him to do and he’s grown in so many ways, other than just his play on the field.”

Odds change on a week-to-week basis, but Tagovailoa being viewed as a front-runner is a testament of the growth he’s shown since Mike McDaniel took over as the Dolphins’ head coach, and play-caller.

Coincidentally, or not, McDaniel’s odds to become NFL Coach of the Year is at +1300. 

Only Detroit’s Dan Campbell has lower odds (+750). McDaniel is tied with Green Bay’s Matt LaFleur, and Jets head coach Robert Saleh trails them at +1400, though his team lost Rodgers to a season-ending Achilles injury on Monday night.

The Dolphins' MVP history

The Dolphins have had one AP NFL MVP in their history, that being Dan Marino for his record-setting 1984 season.

Fellow Hall of Fame quarterback Bob Griese was named MVP in 1977 by press agency NEA.

As a point of reference, Marino's MVP campaign of 1984 produced the kind of eye-popping numbers that Tua had against the Chargers on Sunday, though in terms of touchdowns, as he threw five in a 35-17 victory at Washington against the defending NFC champions. Marino passed for 311 yards in that game, posting a passer rating of 150.4.

AP changed its voting procedure for the NFL MVP award in 2022, with its panel now voting for five players on a 1-5 basis.

Tua and wide receiver Tyreek Hill were among the 16 people who received a vote — one of them was Buffalo Bills trainer Denny Kellington for his part in helping save Damar Hamlin's life in that December Monday night game — last season, with Tagovailoa and Hill each getting one fifth-place vote.