Was Tyreek Trade Truly a Win-Win?

Two-time Miami Dolphins MVP Tyreek Hill was active on social media while his former team was winning a second Super Bowl without him

The Miami Dolphins clearly have been better for having Tyreek Hill on their roster the past two seasons, but losing him obviously didn't hurt the Kansas City Chiefs very much.

The proof is in the two Super Bowl titles the Chiefs have won without Hill the past two seasons after they decided to trade him instead of giving him the mega contract he wanted.

In retrospect, it was another in a series of brilliant personnel moves by the Chiefs that started with their trade up in the 2017 NFL draft to select Patrick Mahomes with the 10th overall pick.

Trading Hill, while taking away a dynamic piece from their offense, gave them some cap space to focus on other important players (like Chris Jones) and additional draft capital that they used to move around future draft boards to land, among others, stud cornerback Trent McDuffie.

From the Dolphins standpoint, Hill became a transformative piece, the one player most significant in the development of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

Hill's performance in his first two seasons in Miami was good enough to earn him team MVP honors each time and earn MVP votes, always a feat for a wide receiver. Hill, in fact, was sixth in the 2023 MVP race behind winner Lamar Jackson, runner-up Dak Prescott, Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy and Josh Allen.

HIGH PRICE FOR HILL (AND HIDDEN COSTS)

The Dolphins did pay a high price for Hill in the form of five draft picks, including first- and second-round picks in 2022, and then gave him a huge contract that included more than $70 million guaranteed.

The contract has three more years remaining, though it's more like two because the final one (2026) is essentially a void year.

The cap number for Hill in each of the next two seasons is on the north side of $30 million, which has led to speculation the deal very well could end up being restructured to lower his cap number.

Hill's number is but a part of the Dolphins' current sticky salary-cap situation, but it was all part of an all-in approach and it's difficult to argue with his production.

But another debate that's popped up when it comes to Hill — and maybe it was inevitable — is that the Dolphins became too reliant on him.

It does make all the sense in the world to heavily rely on him given that he's the most dynamic playmaker in the NFL, but how much did that affect the Dolphins down the stretch last season after Hill sustained his high ankle sprain against Tennessee and played at less than full capacity?

Here's another point that needs to be raised, and that's the style the Dolphins have adopted.

After landing Hill, the team went all in with a speed-based approach, and the results have been outstanding both through the middle of the season and against lesser opponents.

But the Dolphins have been left without a way to effectively counterattack when playoff-type opponents have been able to slow down the track meet and that showed up, for example, against the Buffalo Bills in the 2023 season finale and in the playoff game against Hill's former team.

The Dolphins can't suddenly turn into a smash-mouth type of team when they're paying that much money to Hill and when their other top offensive players — Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane — also have speed as their best asset.

The question is whether the Dolphins can find a way to add some balance to be able to more successfully navigate the late-season and playoff challenges.

It's not like it can't be done because the Chiefs did win a Super Bowl title with Hill, that occurring in the 2019 season. Of course, it doesn't hurt to have the best QB on the planet (Patrick Mahomes) as well as maybe the best tight end in NFL history (Travis Kelce).

ANY REGRETS?

The Dolphins' two seasons with Hill have produced some major highlights, but they ultimately ended in disappointment, specifically a late-season collapse followed by a first-round playoff exit.

The question then becomes what the Dolphins might have looked like without making that Hill trade.

Certainly, they wouldn't have been as explosive — in those times when they were that — the past two seasons, but let's also not forget this was a team that did produce 9-8 and 10-6 records in the two years before he arrived, almost the same as the 9-8 and 11-6 marks since he and head coach Mike McDaniel arrived.

And then, what would the Dolphins have done with that 2022 first-round pick, which was 29th overall, had they not sent it to the Chiefs or that second-round selection?

The Dolphins also likely wouldn't be in the nasty cap situation in which they currently find themselves without having signed Hill to that monster contract.

So, yes, it's fair to wonder in retrospect whether the trade was worth it, understanding the obvious point that the Dolphins maybe wouldn't have been as fun or relevant for most of the past two seasons.

For Hill himself, he has said publicly he has zero regrets, though he also has kind of made it obvious through his various social media posts, including during and after Super Bowl LVIII that he still has a major fondness for the Chiefs.

My brothers win it again proud of them boys , even more motivation for us in Miami ✌🏿

— Ty Hill (@cheetah) February 12, 2024

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