Revisiting Skylar Thompson's Last Start

Miami Dolphins QB Skylar Thompson will start at Seattle on Sunday for the first time since the 2022 playoffs.

Miami Dolphins QB Skylar Thompson rolls away from pressure from Bills linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and Boogie Basham in the 2022 playoff game at Buffalo. / JAMIE GERMANO / USA TODAY NETWORK

The big question for the Miami Dolphins over the next month-plus is whether Skylar Thompson can do a good enough job at quarterback to help the team win some games until Tua Tagovailoa returns from his concussion.

Head coach Mike McDaniel has expressed his confidence — more than once — in Thompson's ability to do the job, explaining that he wouldn't be the backup quarterback otherwise.

But there's some skepticism among media members about Thompson's ability to keep the offense afloat, and those folks have the stats to back them up, including some ugly numbers in Thompson's last relevant (non-preseason) start the Dolphins, the 2022 playoff game at Buffalo.

However, Thompson's performance that day is another example of how statistics don't always tell the whole story.

In summary, bad numbers aside, Thompson played well enough in that game for McDaniel to be absolutely justified in his confidence.

THOMPSON'S PLAYOFF PERFORMANCE

In that 34-31 loss against the Bills on January 15, 2023, Thompson completed 18 of 44 passes (40.9 percent) for 220 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions for a paltry 44.7 passer rating.

Those numbers suggest a really poor performance from Thompson, a clear sign that he was overmatched as a rookie seventh-round pick starting a playoff game.

But that's flat-out not the reality.

Thompson actually didn't play poorly. He didn't even play bad at all.

He absolutely was the victim of some tough circumstances, including a makeshift offensive line and little help from his wide receivers.

Advanced stats from the game show the Dolphins with three drops — one each by Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Jeff Wilson, Jr. Still, a potential 25-yard completion to Waddle became an incomplete pass after Waddle failed to catch the ball cleanly, allowing the Bills defender to jar it loose.

On Thompson's very first pass of the game, after the Dolphins' defense had forced a punt, he had Waddle open behind the Buffalo defense.

Despite Thompson underthrowing Waddle and forcing him to slow down, the ball still got to him 35 yards downfield, but Waddle dropped it.

Besides the drops, the pass protection was the other issue working against Thompson that day.

With Brandon Shell, the starting right tackle, unavailable because of injury, right guard Robert Hunt moved over to take his place. Lester Cotton stepped in for Hunt to make only his second NFL start in the regular season or postseason.

The offensive line had a tough time with the Buffalo pass rush — not exactly something we haven't heard before — and Thompson was sacked four times and pressured on 25.5 percent of his dropbacks, per Pro Football Reference.

By comparison, Tagovailoa was pressured on 7.1 percent of his dropbacks in the game last Thursday night. It's still a staggering difference, even allowing for a few quick throws.

To be sure, Thompson had a couple of bad plays, including the two interceptions. He failed to see dropping linebacker Dean Marlowe on a pass to Hill while he was rolling to his left and then tried to squeeze a pass down the left sideline to Trent Sherfield between defenders.

There were a couple of other bad throws, including a third-and-2 incompletion to Waddle, where he didn't set his feet properly and bounced the pass. His overall bad throw percentage was 25.5 percent. Again, by comparison, Tagovailoa was at 28.8 percent against Buffalo in Week 2 after being at 19.4 in the opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Thompson did have some throws in that Buffalo playoff, too, including a nifty back-shoulder completion to Hill down the left sideline, his touchdown dart to Mike Gesicki in the middle of the end zone, a nifty touch pass to Hill over to the right sideline.

The Dolphins almost pulled off the upset that day — thanks mainly to a fumble return for a touchdown, two interceptions, and a 50-yard punt return by Cedrick Wilson, Jr. — but their final drive stalled around midfield.

And that ill-fated last drive wasn't so much on Thompson as the offensive line and poor execution.

If you recall, the Dolphins had a third-and-1 at their own 48, but Salvon Ahmed was stuffed for no gain on a running play. The Dolphins were flagged for a delay of game, and then Thompson was flushed out of the pocket, and his pass on the run to Gesicki just past the sticks was broken up.

The bottom line is not to make assumptions about Thompson and his ability to run the Dolphins' offense based on the statistics from his last start.

The stats were ugly; the performance was not.

Besides, it's not all on Thompson to win some games for the Dolphins over the next month.