Sunday Dolphins Mailbag: The Season Finale and Beyond

Tackling Miami Dolphins issues ranging from Tua Tagovailoa to Chris Grier with plenty others in between

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) attempts a pass against the San Francisco 49ers during second half at Hard Rock Stadium. / Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

Second and final part of the pre-Jets rematch Miami Dolphins On SI:

From FZB:

Alain , I am of the opinion that regardless of Sundays outcome Grier must be let go along with McDaniel (I think the HC lacks leadership); you think Ross will be inclined to make changes?.. I’m not impressed with Ross track record since he became owner.

Hey FZB, I put the chances of a head coaching change at no more than 10 percent and I put the chances of a GM change at something like 35 percent. I think the Dolphins, meaning Ross, want to see this through with the people in charge right now. And say what you want about Ross, including maybe getting influenced too much by the wrong voices, but give him his props for never being shy about spending to help the product.

From Jeff Horst:

Alain, the defense is having a solid year statistically, when you look at the analytics closer, is that more due to not playing high-rated offensive teams other than the Bills? Maybe a better question for after the season, Thanks for your great work every season!

Hey Jeff, not sure I’d say that’s the reason. The Dolphins have played four games against teams ranked in the top 10 in total offense, plus another against 11th-place Arizona. I think part of the success has been the ball-control offense, which while not explosive has kept the Dolphins defense off the field a good amount of time.

From Matt DePeri:

Why is my team so depressing? Going into a must-win game with a backup QB and a guy who shouldn't even be in the league at RT.

Hey Matt, it actually might be Patrick Paul at right tackle because there’s a chance Terron Armstead might be able to play, and Paul definitely belongs in the league. But I get your overall point, and it is indeed disappointing.

From Gerald Ortiz:

Hi Alain. Happy New Year! If, by some chance, the Dolphins make the playoffs, is Grier back next year? And a follow-up: Does Ross view him as a problem? (BTW, I don't hate Chris!) Thanks!

Hey Gerald, as I indicated before, I don’t believe Grier will be fired regardless, but I don’t see any way it would happen if the Dolphins indeed make it into the playoffs.

From Beach-waves78:

How does Tua’s contract break down against the cap. If this hip thing is an ongoing health issue…when can the dolphins move on?

Tua’s cap number was a very palatable $9 million this year, per overthecap.com, but it jumps to a nasty $39 million in 2025 when he’s got $50 million guaranteed. The realistic out in the contract comes after the 2026 season, and it would take somebody more astute (lot of those people, I know) to figure all the ramifications if injuries come into play in terms of preventing Tua from continuing to play.

From A.S NYY:

Will the Dolphins bring in better competition at the QB position next year?

Unless there are question marks about Tua’s availability, I don’t see the Dolphins bringing in anybody who’s been a long-time starter because that’s just not their M.O. I would expect them to have somebody in place more qualified than Skylar Thompson was and maybe that somebody ends up being Tyler Huntley if he has another good game against the Jets on Sunday.

From TNT Mottley:

Based on current career trajectory (including health and availability), do you believe Tua will be the Miami quarterback for years to come?

This is a tough prediction to make, but the fact he’s missing must-win games right now because of a hip injury tells to lean toward saying no here.

From Julian R:

With Lamm out and Tua out, wouldn't it be better to just lose to the Jets? Secure a slightly better draft position and look at next year? This team is chum for an NFL shark like Buffalo if it somehow made the playoffs, think Pittsburgh 2016. Your thoughts?

Hey Julian, my thoughts is you absolutely don’t know what would happen in the playoffs because the Dolphins almost won at Buffalo in the playoffs two years ago with Skylar Thompson at quarterback. And if they get spanked in the playoffs, what’s the big deal? And you’d rather, say, the 14th pick in the draft instead of the 19th? Yes, that’s a big no for me. Try to win and hope Denver loses, and then give it your best shot at Buffalo.

From finsfan4life:

Grier's previous contract for Xavien Howard and this year’s for Shaq Barrett are going to hurt the cap for 2025 in dead money (X $15M+ Shaq $4M+). Some of other signings at stoopid money might also. Which of recent contracts do you think will bite them in the butt in 2025 or 2026?

This all depends on your definition of “bite them in the butt.” From where I sit, the bad contracts are those that kind of tie you to a player no matter what because of large guarantees and/or major cap hits. So you always look at the biggest cap number, and for 2025 that belongs to Tua at $39.4 million (per overthecap.com). That number ties the Dolphins to him, but whether it comes back to bite them will depend on how things unfold in 2025.

From Jeff:

Hello Alain, all of this talk of playoffs and how things could be for the team has me playing sports movie quotes in the background.  I am yet again reminded of the replacements and the line that is dropped before the game at the end of the season.  "...Up until now (they) haven't been afraid of you, and they should be because you have a powerful weapon working for you. There is no tomorrow for you, and that makes you all very dangerous people!" Basically, we all hear it every single day regarding how many of these players will not be back next season. They are literally playing every single game as if tomorrow is not promised, because it isn't for them.  The other side of the coin is that no one, and I mean no one outside of the building, expects this team to do anything if they actually make it to a playoff game. I don't think anyone will be sleeping on the Dolphins, but the chiefs want to win their game this week simply because they get to play a broken down Miami team with a huge question at the QB position and an OL in heavy flux. Is any of this uncertainty and certain doubt of ability going to provide motivation at the end of the day for the players and coaches inside of the building? Is there any team in the Dolphins’ past that this team reminds you of? Thank you as always for everything you do.

Hey Jeff, have to correct you right off the bat because Kansas City will NOT face the Dolphins unless the Dolphins win at Buffalo (assuming a Miami win and Denver loss Sunday). And I don’t buy the idea of extra motivation because teams are doubted. That makes for good stories, but like Cameron Wake used to say, “If you need extra motivation to play this game, you’re in the wrong business.”

From 7273fins:

Alain, there is obviously much talk about Chris Grier's results as GM over his tenure in that role. But don't you feel his decisions need to be dissected more and specifically compared to other GMs around league? Every GM has hits & misses in the draft & free agency. If compared to every other GM in the league, have his decisions really been worse?? I don't know the answer, but I would bet his decisions would compare favorably. For every miss, there is also a Zach Sieler & Calais Campbell. Or do you feel it simply comes down to zero playoff wins with him running show and that it how he should solely be judged? PS: What would it take for you to set aside Expos hat for an episode & wear a Dolphins one?

Hey Dave, yes, every GM has hits and misses, but it’s on the big moves that you can’t miss too often. For me, I look at the 2020 and 2021 draft when the Dolphins had a combined nine picks in the first two rounds and they ended up with Tua Tagovailoa, Austin Jackson, Noah Igbinoghene, Robert Hunt, Raekwon Davis, Jaylen Waddle, Jaelan Phillips, Jevon Holland and Liam Eichenberg. Three years after the fact, those players have combined for one Pro Bowl invitation, which was Tua’s last year. That’s not good enough. But, yes, it’s the zero playoff wins that stick out more than anything because ultimately that’s what it’s all about. Oh, and what it would take for me to wear a Dolphins hat (for one episode) is to reach 15,000 podcast subscribers (just a couple hundred short), as I said on the show a couple of months ago.

From Rick DiRubbo:

Hi Alain, if Weaver gets a head coaching job, what would be the chances of Robert Saleh becoming our new DC, given that he worked with McDaniel in SF? I hated Saleh as a HC but he can coach defense.

Hey Rick, yeah, I would think Saleh would be under strong consideration. By all accounts, he and Saleh have a good relationship and Saleh absolutely can coach defense.