The Cold Hard Facts About This Tua Narrative

The Miami Dolphins will try to win at Green Bay on a night where the temperature should be below freezing

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) calls signals prior to the snap against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Highmark Stadium in December 2022. / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

There might or might be snow Thursday night when the Miami Dolphins play at Lambeau Field, but what appears certain is that it's going to be cold.

And that, based on a popular narrative fueled by past stats, is going to be bad news for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and his team.

By now, you've probably heard all about his poor record when the temperatures dips below a certain level, such as his 0-6 mark when it's 46 degrees or colder.

It's a narrative the Dolphins quarterback is well aware of.

"Yeah, I mean I’m excited to kill narratives, so let’s go," Tagovailoa said afer the 34-15 victory against the New England Patriots on Sunday when the temperature at kickoff was 77. "Bring it on."

THE REALITY OF DOLPHINS AND THE COLD

The latest example of the Dolphins playing in the cold was the January playoff game at Kansas City, where actually the word "cold" didn't do justice to the conditions.

Before that loss when the kickoff temperature was minus-4 (yes, minus-4), Tagovailoa started at quarterback when the Dolphins lost at home against Green Bay in 2022 in 46-degree weather, at Buffalo in 2022 with 30-degree weather, at Tennessee in 2021 when it was 36 degrees, and at Denver (45) and Buffalo (35) during his rookie season of 2020.

Point one here is that six games in four seasons is not exactly a large sample size.

Point two is that two of the games came during Tagovailoa's rookie season, and if you think he's the same quarterback now he was then after his growth, development and a new scheme designed to maximize his strengths, you clearly haven't been watching the Dolphins.

The late-season game at Tennessee in the 2021 season might have been Tagovailoa's worst of his career, but again that was three years ago and it didn't help that the cold was accompanied by some rain.

That leaves us with the K.C. game last season when Tagovailoa, sure, struggled but in conditions where it was difficult for any offense to succeed (minus-27 wind chill, 19 mph wind along with the cold) against a team that led the Chiefs to their second consecutive Super Bowl title.

So, yeah, we can forgive that one.

In the Christmas Day game against the Packers at Hard Rock Stadium, Tagovailoa actually was very good for three quarters until things fell apart in the fourth when he threw three picks. Whether it was the result of the concussion he sustained in the second quarter can be debated because he didn't report symptoms until the following day, but it still wasn't like the game proved he couldn't handle colder temperatures.

And that brings us to the 2022 December game at Buffalo, which might be the one with most similar weather conditions to the game at Green Bay on Thursday.

And in that game, with snow coming down after kickoff, Tagovailoa performed more than well enough for the Dolphins to win, completing 17 of 30 passes for 234 yards with two touchdowns and no picks for a 104.0 passer rating. Unfortunately, Josh Allen was a bit better and he led the Bills to a 32-29 last-second victory.

And it says here that 2022 Buffalo defense was better than what the Dolphins will face against Green Bay on Thursday night.

So, yeah, sure, run with the Tua/cold narratives because it makes for an easy story.

But, as with so many numbers that are thrown around, simply putting the 0-6 when 46 degrees or colder is misleading and, quite frankly, a bit lazy.

Of course, Tagovailoa can end that storyline forever with a big performance.

Asked what he could take from his previous experiences playing in cold temperatures, this is what Tua said Tuesday: “I would say the biggest thing is mindset. We’re obviously nowhere near the temperatures that all these other cold teams play at being in Miami where it’s 80. Sometimes it gets down to 50, but it just gets nowhere near the teams that make it in long stretches in the run that they try to do. To me it’s just a mindset. That’s really all it is.”

Additional reading:

-- Dolphins playoff outlook through Week 12

-- Are these the same old Dolphins?

-- Breaking down the Tuesday injury report for Dolphins-Packers game