The Dolphins 2024 Playoff Picture Through Week 11

The Miami Dolphins remain one game out of the last playoff spot regarding the loss column.

Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (28) celebrates his forth quarter touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders with wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) at Hard Rock Stadium. / Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins still have work to do if they hope to make a push for a third consecutive playoff appearance, but they did their part with their 34-19 victory against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.

The victory moved the Dolphins' record to 4-6, and they stand in ninth place in the AFC standings through Week 11—regardless of the outcome of the Monday night game between the AFC South-leading Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys.

In the loss column, the Dolphins are tied for eighth with the Indianapolis Colts, who do have a tiebreaker advantage over Miami by virtue of their victory at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 8. Miami and Indy trail the seventh-place Denver Broncos, who improved to 6-5 on Sunday with their victory against the Atlanta Falcons.

In analyzing the Dolphins' playoff picture, we've been focusing on the seventh spot, assuming that six teams seem pretty set for the postseason:

• Kansas City Chiefs
• Buffalo Bills
• Pittsburgh Steelers
• L.A. Chargers
• Houston Texans
• Baltimore Ravens

However, the latter two could fall out with a bad finish, considering they already have four losses.

Denver, Indy, and Miami will battle for the final playoff spot if the Ravens and Texans don't fall back to the pack. The Cincinnati Bengals still have an outside shot despite their last-minute Sunday night loss to the Chargers, which left them with a 4-7 record.

According to playoffstatus.com, the Dolphins had a 16 percent chance of making the playoffs as of Monday morning. It's not great, but still better than when they were 2-6.

After their late loss against the Colts dropped them to 3-8, we feel confident in dismissing the idea of the New York Jets making a playoff push, and the Patriots, Browns, Titans, Raiders, and Jaguars were already there.

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REMAINING SCHEDULES OF AFC PLAYOFF HOPEFULS

(teams with between four and seven losses)

1. BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-4) — at L.A. Chargers vs. Philadelphia, bye, at N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh, at Houston, vs. Cleveland
2. HOUSTON TEXANS (6-4) — at Dallas, vs. Tennessee, at Jacksonville, bye, vs. Miami, at Kansas City, vs. Baltimore, at Tennessee
3. DENVER BRONCOS (6-5) — at Las Vegas, vs. Cleveland, bye, vs. Indianapolis, at L.A. Chargers, at Cincinnati, vs. Kansas City
4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-6) — vs. Detroit, at New England, bye, at Denver, vs. Tennessee, at N.Y. Giants, vs. Jacksonville
5. MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-6) — vs. New England, at Green Bay, vs. N.Y. Jets, at Houston, vs. San Francisco, at Cleveland, at N.Y. Jets
6. CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-7) — Bye, vs. Pittsburgh, at Dallas, at Tennessee, vs. Cleveland, vs. Denver, at Pittsburgh

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PLAYOFF TIEBREAKER PROCEDURES

(to break a tie within a division)

1. Head-to-head.
2. Best record in division games.
3. Best record in common games.
4. Best record in conference games.
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss.

(to break a tie for wild-card spots)

Two Teams

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best record in conference games.
3. Best record in common games (minimum of four).
4. Strength of victory in all games.
5. Strength of schedule in all games.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Teams

1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest-ranked team in each division prior to proceeding to Step 2.
2. Head-to-head (apply only if one team has defeated all the others or one team has lost to all the others).
3. Best record in conference games.
4. Best record in common games (minimum of four).
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss.

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Note: After the first Wild Card team is identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second and third teams.