The Dolphins 2024 Playoff Picture Through Week 12

The Miami Dolphins remain one game out of the last playoff spot regarding the loss column.

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) celebrates with wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) after scoring a touchdown against the New England Patriots during the third quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins continue to do their part to keep their playoff hopes realistic and now they've moved up one spot in the AFC standings.

With their 34-15 victory against the New England Patriots on Sunday, the Dolphins improved their record to 5-6 and moved ahead of the Indianapolis Colts into ninth place in the AFC through Week 12.

2024 AFC Standings Through Week 12 / NFL

When it comes to the loss column, Miami trails the seventh-place Denver Broncos by one game after Denver's 29-19 victory against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.

In analyzing the Dolphins' playoff picture, we've been focusing on the seventh spot, assuming that six teams seem pretty set for the postseason:

• Kansas City Chiefs
• Buffalo Bills
• Pittsburgh Steelers
• L.A. Chargers
• Houston Texans
• Baltimore Ravens

The Chargers and Ravens currently stand in second place in their division, so a late-season slide could enable the Dolphins to pass either of them, but the seventh spot appears the most realistic possibility at the moment. Houston has five losses, but it also has a two-game lead atop the AFC South and appears headed for a repeat as division champion.

Denver and Miami look like the teams most likely to battle for that last playoff spot, with the Indianapolis Colts and the Cincinnati Bengals as outside possibilities despite each having seven losses.

One very important thing to note is that if the Dolphins and Broncos are tied for seventh-best record in the AFC, the Dolphins already are assured of winning the tiebreaker because they will have a better conference record.

According to playoffstatus.com, the Dolphins have an 18 percent chance of making the playoffs, up 2 percent after the victory against the Patriots. The breakdown is a 12 percent chance of being the 7 seed, 5 percent the 6 seed, and 1 percent being the 5 seed.

At this time, we remain confident in dismissing the idea of the New York Jets making a playoff push, and the Patriots, Browns, Titans, Raiders, and Jaguars were already there.

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REMAINING SCHEDULES OF AFC PLAYOFF HOPEFULS

(teams with between four and seven losses)

1. BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-4) — vs. Philadelphia, bye, at N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh, at Houston, vs. Cleveland (combined opponent winning pct. .518)
2. HOUSTON TEXANS (7-5) — at Jacksonville, bye, vs. Miami, at Kansas City, vs. Baltimore, at Tennessee (combined opponent winning pct. .500)
3. DENVER BRONCOS (7-5) — vs. Cleveland, bye, vs. Indianapolis, at L.A. Chargers, at Cincinnati, vs. Kansas City (combined opponent winning pct. .518)
4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-7) — at New England, bye, at Denver, vs. Tennessee, at N.Y. Giants, vs. Jacksonville (combined opponent winning pct. .298)
5. MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-6) — at Green Bay, vs. N.Y. Jets, at Houston, vs. San Francisco, at Cleveland, at N.Y. Jets (combined opponent winning pct. .433)
6. CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-7) — Bye, vs. Pittsburgh, at Dallas, at Tennessee, vs. Cleveland, vs. Denver, at Pittsburgh (combined opponent winning pct. .493)

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PLAYOFF TIEBREAKER PROCEDURES

(to break a tie within a division)

1. Head-to-head.
2. Best record in division games.
3. Best record in common games.
4. Best record in conference games.
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss.

(to break a tie for wild-card spots)

Two Teams

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best record in conference games.
3. Best record in common games (minimum of four).
4. Strength of victory in all games.
5. Strength of schedule in all games.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Teams

1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest-ranked team in each division prior to proceeding to Step 2.
2. Head-to-head (apply only if one team has defeated all the others or one team has lost to all the others).
3. Best record in conference games.
4. Best record in common games (minimum of four).
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss.

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Note: After the first Wild Card team is identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second and third teams.