The Dolphins 2024 Playoff Picture Through Week 13

The Miami Dolphins remain one game out of the last playoff spot regarding the loss column.

Green Bay Packers cornerback Robert Rochell (22) dives on a muffed punt by Miami Dolphins wide receiver Malik Washington (83) on Thursday, November 28, 2024, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Packers won the game, 30-17. / Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins had a really bad Thanksgiving weekend when it comes to their playoff outlook.

It was bad enough that the team lost at Green Bay on Thanksgiving night, but then that was followed by victories by other AFC playoff hopefuls Indianapolis, the L.A. Chargers and finally the Denver Broncos on Monday night. Oh, and we shouldn't forget the Buffalo Bills clinching the AFC East title with their Sunday night victory against the San Francisco 49ers, meaning the Dolphins now only can make the playoffs as a wild card — again.

After their 30-17 loss against the Packers on Thursday and the subsequent results, the Dolphins now find themselves alone in ninth place in the AFC standings with their 5-7 record through Week 13.

2024 AFC Standings Through Week 13 / NFL

Miami trails the seventh-place Denver Broncos by 2.5 games (but two in the loss column) after Denver's 41-32 victory against the Cleveland Browns on Monday night.

In analyzing the Dolphins' playoff picture, we've been focusing on the seventh spot, assuming that six teams seem pretty set for the postseason:

• Kansas City Chiefs
• Buffalo Bills
• Pittsburgh Steelers
• L.A. Chargers
• Houston Texans
• Baltimore Ravens

The Chargers and Ravens currently stand in second place in their division, so a late-season slide could enable the Dolphins to pass either of them, but the seventh spot appears the most realistic possibility at the moment. Houston has five losses, but it also has a two-game lead atop the AFC South and appears headed for a repeat as division champion.

Denver and Miami look like the teams most likely to battle for that last playoff spot, with the Indianapolis Colts an outside possibility based on its remaining schedule. The Cincinnati Bengals were all but eliminated playoff contention with their 44-38 loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.

One very important thing to note is that if the Dolphins and Broncos are tied for seventh-best record in the AFC, the Dolphins already are assured of winning the tiebreaker because they will have a better conference record.

According to playoffstatus.com, the Dolphins are now down to a 9 percent chance of making the playoffs, half their percentage after their Week 12 victory against the New England Patriots. The breakdown is a 7 percent chance of being the 7 seed, 2 percent the 6 seed, and less than 1 percent being the 5 seed.

The Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas all were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 13, and it's a matter of time before they're joined by the Browns, Tennessee Titans and New York Jets.

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REMAINING SCHEDULES OF AFC PLAYOFF HOPEFULS

(teams with between four and seven losses)

1. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (8-4) — at Kansas City, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Denver, at New England, at Las Vegas (combined opponent winning pct. .484)
2. BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-5) — bye, at N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh, at Houston, vs. Cleveland

(combined opponent winning pct. .449)

3. HOUSTON TEXANS (8-5) —bye, vs. Miami, at Kansas City, vs. Baltimore, at Tennessee (combined opponent winning pct. .551)
4. DENVER BRONCOS (8-5) — bye, vs. Indianapolis, at L.A. Chargers, at Cincinnati, vs. Kansas City (combined opponent winning pct. .592)
5. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-7) — bye, at Denver, vs. Tennessee, at N.Y. Giants, vs. Jacksonville (combined opponent winning pct. .306)
6. MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-7) — vs. N.Y. Jets, at Houston, vs. San Francisco, at Cleveland, at N.Y. Jets (combined opponent winning pct. .361)
7. CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-8) — at Dallas, at Tennessee, vs. Cleveland, vs. Denver, at Pittsburgh (combined opponent winning pct. .493)

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PLAYOFF TIEBREAKER PROCEDURES

(to break a tie within a division)

1. Head-to-head.
2. Best record in division games.
3. Best record in common games.
4. Best record in conference games.
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss.

(to break a tie for wild-card spots)

Two Teams

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best record in conference games.
3. Best record in common games (minimum of four).
4. Strength of victory in all games.
5. Strength of schedule in all games.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Teams

1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest-ranked team in each division prior to proceeding to Step 2.
2. Head-to-head (apply only if one team has defeated all the others or one team has lost to all the others).
3. Best record in conference games.
4. Best record in common games (minimum of four).
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss.

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Note: After the first Wild Card team is identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second and third teams.