The Dolphins 2024 Playoff Picture Through Week 14

The Miami Dolphins gained some ground with their comeback victory against the New York Jets

Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith (9) makes a catch for the game winning touchdown during overtime against the New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium. / Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins find themselves with a better shot at making a playoff run after the Sunday games of Week 14, thanks to their remarkable comeback victory against the New York Jets and the Sunday night result.

After their 32-26 victory at Hard Rock Stadium, the Dolphins now stand at 6-7 on the season and rejoined the Indianapolis Colts in a tie for eighth place in the AFC standings, two games behind currently wild-card leaders Baltimore, L.A. Chargers and Denver, who all are at 8-5.

2024 AFC Standings Through Week 14 / NFL

The Dolphins already trail the Colts in the event of a two-team tiebreaker because of their loss at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 7, but they also will win a two-team tiebreaker with the Denver Broncos because they're assure in that event of having a better conference record.

Clearly the best path for Miami to make the playoffs, involves winning out to finish 10-7 and taking getting a spot because the Dolphins' final 8-4 conference record would be the best of any of the contenders.

If the Dolphins end up 9-8, they'll still get all the tiebreakers if their one loss in their final four games comes against the San Francisco at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 16.

But a 9-8 finish would require the Ravens, Chargers or Broncos to lose three of their final four games, and that might be a tall ask with the Ravens having the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns left on their schedule and the Chargers having the Patriots and Raiders to close out their schedule. The Broncos have a tougher finishing schedule, but they have the Colts at home, the disappointing Cincinnati Bengals at home, and a potentially JV Chiefs team in their season finale.

This was the one bad part of the Week 14 results, specifically the Buffalo Bills loss against the Los Angeles Rams, which gave the Chiefs a two-game cushion atop the AFC standings. The Chiefs could clinch the No. 1 seed and accompanying bye simply by matching what the Bills do over the next three games, and the Bills have to face the NFC powerhouse Detroit Lions on the road next Sunday.

If the Chiefs do have the No. 1 seed locked up after Week 17, precedent tells us they'll be resting a lot of players for their finale against the Broncos in Denver because that's what the Ravens did last year and what the Chiefs did in 2020, the last two times the No. 1 seed was sewn up before the season finale.

According to playoffstatus.com, the Dolphins are up to a 12 percent chance of making the playoffs, up from their 9 percent after their Week 13 loss against the Green Bay Packers. The breakdown is a 9 percent chance of being the 7 seed, 3 percent the 6 seed, and less than 1 percent being the 5 seed.

The Jets, Browns and Tennessee Titans joined this weekend the Patriots, Jaguars and Raiders as AFC teams eliminated from playoff contention. The Cincinnati Bengals, now 5-8 after their Monday night victory at Dallas, remain in contention but a very, very long shot.

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REMAINING SCHEDULES OF AFC PLAYOFF HOPEFULS

(teams with between five and eight wins)

1. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (8-5) — vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Denver, at New England, at Las Vegas (combined opponent winning pct. .385)
2. BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-5) —at N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh, at Houston, vs. Cleveland

(combined opponent winning pct. .442)

3. HOUSTON TEXANS (8-5) —vs. Miami, at Kansas City, vs. Baltimore, at Tennessee (combined opponent winning pct. .558)
4. DENVER BRONCOS (8-5) — vs. Indianapolis, at L.A. Chargers, at Cincinnati, vs. Kansas City (combined opponent winning pct. .588)
5. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-7) — at Denver, vs. Tennessee, at N.Y. Giants, vs. Jacksonville (combined opponent winning pct. .308)
6. MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-7) — at Houston, vs. San Francisco, at Cleveland, at N.Y. Jets (combined opponent winning pct. .385)
7. CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-8) — at Tennessee, vs. Cleveland, vs. Denver, at Pittsburgh (combined opponent winning pct. .462)

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PLAYOFF TIEBREAKER PROCEDURES

(to break a tie within a division)

1. Head-to-head.
2. Best record in division games.
3. Best record in common games.
4. Best record in conference games.
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss.

(to break a tie for wild-card spots)

Two Teams

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best record in conference games.
3. Best record in common games (minimum of four).
4. Strength of victory in all games.
5. Strength of schedule in all games.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Teams

1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest-ranked team in each division prior to proceeding to Step 2.
2. Head-to-head (apply only if one team has defeated all the others or one team has lost to all the others).
3. Best record in conference games.
4. Best record in common games (minimum of four).
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss.

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Note: After the first Wild Card team is identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second and third teams.