The Dolphins Playoff Picture Through Week 14
The Miami Dolphins came up short in their mission to regain first place in their AFC standings, but they still don't need any outside help to achieve that goal.
The 28-27 Monday night loss against the Tennessee Titans kept the Dolphins in the No. 2 spot, one game behind the Baltimore Ravens and one game ahead of fellow division leaders Kansas City and Jacksonville, along with the Cleveland Browns.
Because they face the Ravens in Baltimore on Dec. 31, the Dolphins will earn that No. 1 seed if they run the table, which obviously sounds less likely now than it did before the epic collapse against the Titans.
That Baltimore game will remain key when it comes to the top of the AFC playoff seedings because a victory at M&T Bank Stadium would put the Dolphins in position where all they would have to do is match the Ravens in the other three games — provided it's a two-team tiebreaker.
If the current standings hold, the second-seeded Dolphins' first-round opponent would be the Indianapolis Colts, the same team Miami defeated in the 2000 for its last playoff victory. The other AFC first-round matchups based on the post-Week 14 standings would be Pittsburgh at Kansas City and Cleveland at Jacksonville.
In terms of the AFC East race, the Dolphins' magic number to clinch their division title since 2008 — any combination of Miami wins or Buffalo losses — remained at three . The Dolphins and Bills face each other in the regular season finale at Hard Rock Stadium, with Buffalo having won the first matchup.
So, if the Dolphins have a one-game lead heading into that Week 18 matchup, it would become a winner-take-all for the division.
Put another way, the Dolphins need to have at least a two-game lead heading into Week 18 to have the division clinched, it means matching what the Bills do every the next three weeks.
In those three weeks, Miami faces the Jets, Cowboys and Ravens, while the Bills will go up against the Cowboys, Chargers and Patriots.
The loss against Tennessee means the Dolphins no longer can clinch the AFC next week, though they could do it as early as Week 16 if things break right.
REMAINING SCHEDULES OF AFC PLAYOFF CONTENDERS (teams at .500 or better)
1. BALTIMORE RAVENS (10-3) — at Jacksonville, at San Francisco, vs. Miami, vs. Pittsburgh
2. MIAMI DOLPHINS (9-4) — vs. N.Y. Jets, vs. Dallas, at Baltimore, vs. Buffalo
3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (8-5) — at New England, vs. Las Vegas, vs. Cincinnati, at L.A. Chargers
4. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-5) — vs. Baltimore, at Tampa Bay, vs. Carolina, at Tennessee
5. CLEVELAND BROWNS (8-5) — vs. Chicago, at Houston, vs. N.Y. Jets, at Cincinnati
6. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-6) — at Indianapolis, vs. Cincinnati, at Seattle, at Baltimore
7. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (7-6) — vs. Pittsburgh, at Atlanta, vs. Las Vegas, vs. Houston
8. HOUSTON TEXANS (7-6) — at Tennessee, vs. Cleveland, vs. Tennessee, at Indianapolis
9. DENVER BRONCOS (7-6) — at Detroit, vs. New England, vs. L.A. Chargers, at Las Vegas
10. CINCINNATI BENGALS (7-6) — vs. Minnesota, at Pittsburgh, at Kansas City, vs. Cleveland
11. BUFFALO BILLS (7-6) — vs. Dallas, at L.A. Chargers, vs. New England, at Miami
PLAYOFF TIEBREAKER PROCEDURES
To break a tie within a division
1. Head-to-head
2. Best record in division games
3. Best record in common games
4. Best record in conference games
5. Strength of victory in all games
6. Strength of schedule in all games
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
9. Best net points in common games
10. Best net points in all games
11. Best net touchdowns in all games
12. Coin toss
To break a tie for wild-card spots
Two teams
1. Head-to-head, if applicable
2. Best record in conference games
3. Best record in common games (minimum of four)
4. Strength of victory in all games
5. Strength of schedule in all games
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
8. Best net points in conference games
9. Best net points in all games
10. Best net touchdowns in all games
11. Coin toss
Three or more teams
1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but highest-ranked team in each division prior to proceeding to Step 2.
2. Head-to-head (apply only if one team has defeated all the others or one team has lost to all the others)
3. Best record in conference games
4. Best record in common games (minimum of four)
5. Strength of victory in all games
6. Strength of schedule in all games
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
9. Best net points in conference games
10. Best net points in all games
11. Best net touchdowns in all games
12. Coin toss
Note: When the first Wild Card team has been identified, the procedure if repeated to name the second and third teams.
