The Dolphins Playoff Picture after the Christmas Afternoon Game

The Dolphins have clinched a playoff berth, but they still could finish in one of five different spots in the AFC standings

The Miami Dolphins and their fans woke up Monday morning with a small but oh-so-beautiful "x" next to the team in NFL standings everywhere.

That, of course, is the symbol of a team having clinched a playoff spot, which is what the Dolphins did with their thrilling 22-20 victory against the Dallas Cowboys at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday.

But much remains unsettled as far as their exactly playoff outlook and where they'll finish in the AFC standings with two weeks left plus the three Christmas Day games, including the showdown between the two current top seeds, the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers.

2023 AFC Standings thru Dec. 24 / NFL

THE AFC EAST OUTLOOK

The Dolphins reduced their magic number to clinch the first AFC East title since 2008 to a simple one, but what complicates things is the Buffalo-Dolphins clash at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 18.

This one is simple: The Dolphins clinch the division title next week with either a victory at Baltimore OR a loss by the Bills at home against the New England Patriots, who improved to 4-11 on the season with their upset at Denver on Christmas Eve.

If one of those two scenarios doesn't materalize, then the division title will go to the winner of the Week 18 rematch because the teams then would finish with identical 11-6 records but the Bills would have the head-to-head sweep.

Buffalo currently stands in sixth place in the AFC standings, a game ahead of four other playoff contenders but may need the victory against the Dolphins to make the postseason, even with a victory against New England next Sunday.

THE OVERALL AFC PICTURE

The Dolphins' path to the No. 1 seed in the AFC remains pretty clearly, and it's almost  limited to them winning their final two games against Baltimore and Buffalo.

The Dolphins actually could clinch that No. 1 seed as early as next Sunday if they win at Baltimore, if the Ravens lose at San Francisco on Christmas night, and if the Cleveland Browns lose at home against the New York Jets on Thursday night.

The Dolphins, however, cannot land the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they lose at Baltimore — under that scenario, the best Miami could finish is 12-5 and in a tie for first but would lose out in any tiebreaker scenario. Baltimore already would have 12 wins.

-- In the event of a two-way tie between the teams at 12-5, Baltimore would get the top seed virtue of their head-to-head.

-- Yet another possible scenario we hadn't earlier considered is the Cleveland Browns and not the Ravens involved in a tie situation at 12-5 because Cleveland would win a tiebreaker for the AFC North title because of a better division record. Cleveland is now 10-5 and closes the season against the Jets at home and then at Cincinnati. If the Dolphins were involved in a two-way tie with the Browns for best record at 12-5, Cleveland would get the top seed because of a better conference record.

-- The Kansas City Chiefs' stunning loss agains the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday afternoon eliminated them from contention for the top seed in the conference because the best they can finish is 11-6, and the Dolphins and Ravens already both having 11 wins means one of them is guaranteed to finish with a better record. This mean that barring a playoff upset, Patrick Mahomes is looking at playing a playoff game on the road for the first time in his career.

-- The Dolphins could land the No. 1 seed with a victory at Baltimore and then a loss against Buffalo, which would put them at 12-5 again, but they would need another Baltimore loss (Monday night at San Francisco or in the finale at home against Pittsburgh) and also a Cleveland loss.

-- By going 1-1 in their final two games, the Dolphins would assure themselves of no worse than the No. 2 seed.

The Dolphins' victory not only clinched a playoff berth, but it also eliminated the possibility of the them ending as the seventh seed because they're already assured of having one of the best six records in the conference. Of course, the Dolphins also can't be the No. 4 seed because they've already clinched a better record than any team from the AFC South, where Jacksonville, Houston and Indianapolis are tied for first at 8-7.

THE DOLPHINS AND POSSIBLE SEEDS

So let's break it down as best we can as far as how the Dolphins will end up with either the No. 1, 2, 3, 5 or 6 seed.

THE NO. 1 SEED — As discussed before, the easiest and most likely path there is for the Dolphins to win their final two games. The Dolphins cannot get the No. 1 seed without winning at Baltimore. They can do it with a win at Baltimore and a loss at Buffalo, but Baltimore and Cleveland each would have to lose one more game.

THE NO. 2 SEED — The most likely scenario for this development would be a victory at Baltimore and a loss against Buffalo, but Baltimore still finishing 13-4 or 12-5 or Cleveland finishing 12-5.

THE NO. 3 SEED — The path here is for Miami to lose its final two games and Buffalo lose against New England and K.C. winning its last two, which would leave the three teams at 11-6 with the Chiefs and Bills holding the head-to-head tiebreak edge over the Dolphins. A potential first-round matchup under that scenario would entail the Bills coming back to Miami for a second consecutive game.

THE NO. 5 SEED — This obviously entails the Dolphins failing to win the division and ending up with an 11-6 record. Under that scenario, the only team the Dolphins could tie for the top wild-card seed is Cleveland and Cleveland would get the tiebreaker because of conference record. It means the only way the Dolphins don't win the division title but end up as the fifth seed is if the Browns lose against both the Jets and Bengals.

THE NO. 6 SEED — This again happens only if the Dolphins fail to win the AFC East and Cleveland wins one of its final two games. And under that scenario, the most likely first-round matchup would be a rematch at Highmark Stadium against the Bills or a game at Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs.

REMAINING SCHEDULES OF AFC PLAYOFF CONTENDERS (teams at .500 or better)

1. x-BALTIMORE RAVENS (11-3) — at San Francisco, vs. Miami, vs. Pittsburgh

2. x-MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-4) — vs. Dallas, at Baltimore, vs. Buffalo

3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-6) — vs. Cincinnati, at L.A. Chargers

4. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-7) — vs. Carolina, at Tennessee

5. CLEVELAND BROWNS (10-5) — vs. N.Y. Jets, at Cincinnati

6. BUFFALO BILLS (9-6) — vs. New England, at Miami

7. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-7) — vs. Las Vegas, vs. Houston

8. HOUSTON TEXANS (8-7) — vs. Tennessee, at Indianapolis

9. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-7) — at Seattle, at Baltimore

10. CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-7) — at Kansas City, vs. Cleveland

x-clinched playoff berth

PLAYOFF TIEBREAKER PROCEDURES

To break a tie within a division

1. Head-to-head

2. Best record in division games

3. Best record in common games

4. Best record in conference games

5. Strength of victory in all games

6. Strength of schedule in all games

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games

9. Best net points in common games

10. Best net points in all games

11. Best net touchdowns in all games

12. Coin toss

To break a tie for wild-card spots

Two teams

1. Head-to-head, if applicable

2. Best record in conference games

3. Best record in common games (minimum of four)

4. Strength of victory in all games

5. Strength of schedule in all games

6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games

7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games

8. Best net points in conference games

9. Best net points in all games

10. Best net touchdowns in all games

11. Coin toss

Three or more teams

1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but highest-ranked team in each division prior to proceeding to Step 2.

2. Head-to-head (apply only if one team has defeated all the others or one team has lost to all the others)

3. Best record in conference games

4. Best record in common games (minimum of four)

5. Strength of victory in all games

6. Strength of schedule in all games

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games

9. Best net points in conference games

10. Best net points in all games

11. Best net touchdowns in all games

12. Coin toss

Note: When the first Wild Card team has been identified, the procedure if repeated to name the second and third teams.

Dolphins Get Their Signature Win Plus a Playoff Berth